In 2023, the energy storage lithium battery industry will usher in great changes in technology, industrial pattern and other fields.
The 2023 Blue Book on the Development of China's Energy Storage Lithium Battery Industry, produced by the Institute of Advanced Engineering and Industry Research, was released at the 2023 Annual Conference of Advanced Energy Storage held recently.
In this Blue Book,According to GGII statistics, the cumulative shipments of energy storage lithium batteries in China in the first three quarters of 2023 were about 127GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 50%, but the shipments in the third quarter decreased by about 23% quarter-on-quarter, and the full-year shipment forecast was revised and lowered to 180GWh, which was about 22% lower than the expected target of 230GWh at the beginning of the year.
Affected by the expectation of unhurried market demand and the increase in new entrants in the industry, the competition for energy storage products is fierce. Since the second half of the year, there have been systems and batteries that have won bids or transactions** and fallen below the cost line, and the industry's involution has reached its peak. The most powerful illustration of this is thatThe battery cell ** has gone from 0 in just half a month5 wh fell to 0$4 wh
According to GGII statistics, from the perspective of the subdivision of energy storage lithium batteries, the growth rate of electric energy storage and communication energy storage has slowed down, and the demand for household portable energy storage is weak. For the industrial and commercial energy storage track, it is expected that the scale of China's industrial and commercial energy storage shipments will increase by more than 200% year-on-year in 2023.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the concentration of battery cell enterprises in 2023Q1-Q3 has been further improved. In terms of specific shipments, CATL's market share has declined, while Haichen Energy Storage, BYD, EVE Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy, etc., have continued to increase their market share driven by the rise in overseas business.
According to GGII statistics, from January to November 2023, the cumulative signed orders between domestic battery cell companies and overseas customers have exceeded 150GWh. The trend of "Made in China" of global energy storage cells is becoming more and more obvious. Especially in 2023, when the involution is serious, the global penetration rate of energy storage cells is accelerating. Li Bingwen, Director of Energy Storage Business of Trina Solar's Strategic Management and Investment Department, also said that China's global position in energy storage cells is becoming more and more solid.
A noteworthy phenomenon is that battery cell companies have accelerated their entry into the field of integration. For example, BYD, Haichen Energy Storage, Ruipu Lanjun, Penghui Energy, CATL, Nandu Power and other bid-winning scale are at the forefront of the industry, and the competition with system integrators is accelerating.
Among the "5MWH+" energy storage system enterprises according to the statistics of high-tech energy storage, there are a number of battery cell companies such as CATL, Haichen Energy Storage, China Innovation Airlines, and Xinwangda.
After specific analysis, it is not difficult to find that the energy storage lithium battery track in 2023 has the following characteristics.
Application scenarios and subdivided scenarios continue to expand, and the track is becoming more and more certain. The application of balcony energy storage and industrial and commercial segment energy storage has been continuously explored. The global mainstream energy storage market continues to expand.
In overseas markets, the reform of the power market in mainstream markets such as China, the United States and Europe has been accelerating, and the main position of energy storage has become clearerThe demand for energy storage in emerging markets such as South America, Southeast Asia, and South Africa continues to be released, and the demand for energy storage lithium batteries is becoming more and more vigorous.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the construction of the spot market and the national unified power market has been accelerated, favorable policies for independent energy storage have been introduced, and grid-connected dispatching policies are expected to solve problems such as low utilization rate of energy storage.
The cost has fallen rapidly, and the iteration of China's energy storage lithium battery technology has entered an "explosive period". The advantages of Chinese enterprises in global products and chains have been accelerated. Driven by goals such as cost reduction and global penetration, energy storage lithium batteries have further determined the research and development direction of large-capacity batteries, and the iteration speed has been accelerating.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 battery cell factories will march to 300AH+ in 2023. In addition, more and more battery cell factories predict that the capacity of energy storage lithium batteries will be higher in the future, which can cope with long-term energy storage needs. Recently, Haichen Energy Storage released the MIC 1130ah, as well as EVE Energy Storage"mr.big"Both refer to the demand for long-term energy storage.
In the face of wider market demand, in the future, more diverse energy storage lithium battery products may be born. Large cylindrical batteries will further accelerate their penetration into the field of energy storage, such as industrial and commercial energy storage, household energy storage, and portable energy storage subdivisions that have been used in batches.
Product homogenization and safety concerns will continue to be prominent in the short term, and third-tier enterprises will be eliminated and cleared at an accelerated pace. In the face of rapid changes and many players, in addition to some innovative enterprises, product homogenization may be an unavoidable phenomenon for a long time.
With the arrival of the periodic elimination tide of the industry, there will be a number of enterprises that will have business problems in low prices and involution, and third-tier enterprises will face the risk of being cleared and eliminated. GGII expects the first wave of elimination to be on the way. In fact, senior executives, including Chen Xiang, president of EVE Energy Storage, also said that the industry reshuffle is underway.
Under the background of product homogeneity, low-price competition, and accelerated technology racing, the safety concerns of energy storage lithium batteries will still be an important problem in the industry. Relevant industry standards and safety standards have also become the focus of calls from industry professionals, including Dr. Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL.
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