Hello everyone, today I would like to share with you a recent thrilling incident, which is that the Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down a Russian Su-24M fighter-bomber!Is this true?What the hell is this old plane trying to do?Let's take a look at how their air defense forces shot down a Russian Su-24M fighter-bomber with an anti-aircraft missile over the Black Sea near Snake Island. They also claimed that the fighter was escorted by a Su-30SM fighter with the aim of carrying out rocket attacks on Ukrainian targets.
The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force also mockingly said that the fighter plane would soon become a "carrier-based aircraft" for the previously sunken cruiser "Moskva", which "will soon become an aircraft carrier." As soon as this news came out, it attracted a lot of people's attention and questions. The Russian side did not admit or deny the incident, saying only that it was under investigation. So, is this event real or fake?Let's break it down. The Su-24M fighter-bomber is an old-fashioned supersonic fighter-bomber that is mainly used for ground and sea attack missions. It is characterized by the design of variable swept wings, which can adjust the angle of the wing surface at different flight speeds to improve flight performance. Its maximum speed can reach 2Mach 3, the maximum range can reach 3000 km, and the maximum load can reach 8000 kg. It can carry various types of rockets, bombs, missiles, etc., to strike at enemy ground targets and sea targets.
The Su-24M fighter-bomber was developed during the Cold War and has been around for several decades. Its technological level has lagged behind modern fighter-bombers, such as the Su-34 "Platypus" fighter-bomber. The Su-34 is an improved version of the Su-24, which uses more advanced radar, electronic equipment, avionics systems, and advanced systems, which can perform more complex tasks, such as air combat, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, etc. The Su-34 is also superior to the Su-24 in terms of speed, range, payload and other performance, and it has two seats that can accommodate two pilots, improving combat efficiency and safety. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian Aerospace Forces mainly used Su-34 fighter-bombers instead of Su-24 fighter-bombers. The Su-24 has been gradually phased out, and only a few models are still in service, mainly for training and testing.
On the Syrian battlefield, the Russian Aerospace Forces have also used Su-24s, but in 2015, a Su-24 was shot down by an F-16 fighter of the Turkish Air Force, resulting in the tragedy of one pilot killed, one pilot rescued, and one pilot killed by opposition forces during the rescue. It was also the only loss of fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the Syrian battlefield. Since then, the Russian Aerospace Forces have used the Su-24 less and more often with more advanced fighters such as the Su-34 and Su-35. So why would the Ukrainian Air Force claim to have shot down a Su-24?What did this Su-24 come from and what do you want to do?Let's take a look at a few possible scenarios. In the first case, it was a misunderstanding. Perhaps the radar of the Ukrainian Air Force misjudged a Russian civilian aircraft or drone, thinking it was a Su-24, and sent ** anti-aircraft missiles. Maybe they didn't hit any targets at all, and just made up the story just to hype up their exploits. Maybe they hit a Su-24, but this Su-24 is not from Russia, but from other countries, such as Syria or Libya, because these countries also have Su-24 models.
Maybe this Su-24 is an old aircraft, undergoing a test flight or training, without any hostility, and without any **, but unfortunately flew into the range of Ukrainian air defense and was injured by mistake. In the second case, it's a conspiracy. Perhaps the Ukrainian Air Force deliberately created this incident in order to create problems for Russia, or to ask for help from the international community, or to cover up its other actions. Maybe they got a Su-24 themselves, or bought a Su-24 from another country, and then used it as a decoy to let their air defense forces shoot it down, and then declare it Russian. Maybe they have other purposes, such as wanting to provoke a bigger war, or wanting to damage Russia's relations with other countries, or wanting to divert people's attention, or trying to test Russia's reaction, and so on. In the third case, it's a real battle. Maybe this Su-24 is really Russian, and it is consciously flying to a target in Ukraine for an attack or reconnaissance. Maybe it's a tentative move by Russia to see what Ukraine's air defense capabilities are, or to put some pressure on Ukraine, or to retaliate for some of Ukraine's previous actions, or to make some preparations for some actions afterward, and so on.
Perhaps this Su-24 was really shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force, then this shows that the war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated to a new level, which may trigger an even greater conflict and crisis. So, which of these three scenarios is more likely?Let's take a look at some of the relevant background and evidence. First of all, we should know that Snake Island is a small island located in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, with an area of only 17 square kilometers, which belongs to the territory of Ukraine. However, the island is strategically important because of its abundant oil and gas resources and the fact that it is also an important link between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. As a result, both Russia and Ukraine have strong claims for this small island. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, there was a Ukrainian military base on Snake Island, where some soldiers and ** were stationed.
However, in 2014, Russia dispatched its navy and air force to carry out a raid on Snake Island, successfully capturing the island and driving out Ukrainian troops. Since then, Russia has built a military fortress on Snake Island, deploying a number of anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, radars, drones, etc., turning Snake Island into an impenetrable fortress. Ukraine has not relinquished its sovereignty over Snake Island and is always looking for opportunities to recapture the island. In November of this year, Ukraine, with the support of the United States and NATO, dispatched a special forces unit to quietly land on Snake Island, launched a surprise attack, successfully destroyed Russian anti-aircraft missiles and radars, and regained control of the small island. This is a major Ukrainian victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war and a major setback for Russia in the Black Sea. Russia was furious at the incident and vowed to take revenge on Ukraine and retake Snake Island.
Russia's navy and air force in the Black Sea are in combat readiness and are ready to launch a counterattack against Ukraine. Russia has also sent a powerful fleet to the Black Sea, including the Kirov-class nuclear-powered cruiser "Peter the Great", the "Slava"-class missile cruiser "Moskva", the "Udaloy"-class large anti-submarine ship "Marshl Shuposhnikov", etc., as well as a number of destroyers, frigates, submarines, etc. The purpose of this fleet is to strike at sea targets in Ukraine, especially Ukrainian units on Snake Island. However, Ukraine did not sit still, they also strengthened their maritime defenses, deploying some "Patriot" anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, drones, etc., as well as some patrol boats, gunboats, submarines, etc. They have also received assistance from the United States and NATO, the United States has provided Ukraine with some advanced **, such as "Standard"-6 anti-aircraft missiles, "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, "Hap" anti-ship missiles, etc., and NATO has also sent some ** to Ukraine, such as "Burke"-class destroyers, "Arleigh Burke", "Phrygian"-class frigates, "Saxony", etc., as well as some submarines, aircraft, etc., to provide support and protection for Ukraine.
In this way, the situation on the Black Sea has become very tense, and both sides are confronting each other, testing each other, threatening each other, and a large-scale naval battle may break out at any time. And this time, the Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down a Russian Su-24M fighter-bomber, and it was against this background that it happened. If this incident is true, then it means that Russia has begun to carry out air strikes against Ukraine, and it is using old fighters like the Su-24M, probably to save its own more advanced fighters, or to cover its other operations, or to test Ukraine's air defense, or to create some ** effects, and so on. And Ukraine's ability to shoot down this fighter also shows that Ukraine's air defense capability should not be underestimated, and it is the use of advanced anti-aircraft missiles such as "Patriot", which may be helped by the United States, or to show its strength, or to give Russia a warning, or to improve its own morale, and so on.
If this incident is fake, then it means that Ukraine is deliberately creating some fake news, in order to add some political capital to itself, or to put some pressure on Russia, or to ask for help from the international community, or to cover up its other actions, and so on. And Russia's failure to admit or deny this incident also shows that Russia is maintaining a vague attitude, in order to avoid escalating the situation, or to preserve its own space for counterattack, or to plunge Ukraine into an uncertain fear, or to wait for a better time, and so on. To sum up, this downing incident is still quite confusing, and we are not yet sure whether it is true or false, nor can we be sure of its true purpose and significance. However, what we can be sure of is that this incident reflects that the war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new stage, and both sides are stepping up their preparations, both are looking for opportunities, and both are fighting for the important strategic point of Snake Island. This event also foreshadowed the possibility of a greater conflict and crisis on the Black Sea, and could even trigger a world war. As technology enthusiasts, of course, we want to see more advanced technology and **, but we also don't want to see more wars and disasters.