[Disk analysis].
The dot plot of the Fed's decision overnight showed that more than half of the Fed** expected to cut interest rates at least three times next year, and this reversal of rhetoric caused U.S. stocks to rise sharply, hitting new highs this year and record highs. A-shares are currently in a relatively embarrassing situation, with great difficulty in moving up and limited space for downwards, and a prudent monetary policy and a moderately powerful fiscal policy will be the keynote of next year's policy. Based on the fact that the economy, policy and external environment will improve in the future, we should not be overly pessimistic at this point in time, and the opportunities for A-shares in the medium term still outweigh the risks. Investors can pay proper attention to trading opportunities on the left and pay attention to control**.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotAccording to a report released by the China Tourism Academy, the number of domestic tourists will reach 54 in 20230.7 billion, domestic tourism revenue will reach 52 trillion yuan, recovering to 90% and 91% of 2019 levels, respectively. Domestic tourism has been growing steadily, inbound tourism has rebounded slightly, and the outbound market has been steadily expanding. It is estimated that the annual domestic tourism will reach 5.5 billion and the domestic tourism revenue will exceed 5 trillion yuan, recovering to more than 90% and 80% of 2019 respectively. The fundamentals are expected to shift from short-term recovery to long-term high-quality development, superimposed on the transmission of policies, focusing on incremental projects, expectations for the improvement of passenger flow, and the release of demand brought about by the marginal improvement of entry and exit policies.
The three major indexes collectively opened higher, the gem index rose more than 1%, the two cities showed a general upward trend, less than 1,000, the theme of the sector tourism, hotel catering, communication equipment and other sectors performed strongly, pork, chicken, electricity and other sectors performed poorly. The concept of state-owned enterprise reform continues to be active, Nanning Department Store 4 boards, Jinan High-tech, Yunwei shares and other shares of the daily limit, next year to focus on promoting high-quality development, highlight the key points, grasp the key, and do a solid job in economic work. We will further implement the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises, enhance core functions and improve core competitiveness. **Concept stocks rose, Shandong**, Sichuan** and other stocks rose rapidly, the Federal Reserve maintained the key interest rate unchanged, and is expected to cut interest rates at least three times next year, and the international gold price closed up sharply overnight 25% at 2043$1 oz.
The concept of multimodality has repeatedly strengthened, Suzhou Keda 6 boards, Gravity Media 10 days 6 boards, Yunding Technology, Lisheng Sports, etc., have followed suit, and the American technology giant Google has announced that it will provide its cloud customers with a series of upgraded artificial intelligence tools to challenge the large model GPT-4 of rival OpenAI. The media sector continued to rise in early trading, Inner Mongolia Xinhua rose again, Longyun shares, CITIC Publishing, etc. have risen by more than 5%, film and television IP has a lasting vitality, content is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, with the development of new technologies such as AI, small games and interactive dramas, IP value is expected to usher in a revaluation. According to the data of "2024 New Year's Day Holiday Travel**" released by Tongcheng Travel, as of December 11, the tourism popularity of the New Year's Day holiday in the past week has increased by 465% year-on-year, and the number of local hotel bookings has increased by more than 5 times compared with weekdays.
The robot sector continues to be strong, Tech-Long's daily limit, Seymour Intelligent is approaching the 20cm daily limit, Yum Intelligence, Keli Sensing, etc. have risen by more than 5%, Tesla released the humanoid robot Optimus latest**, in **, compared with the GEN-1 version in March, the appearance of the GEN-2 version has changed, and the action is also more smooth, **The robot uses a six-dimensional torque sensor. The concept of memory chips is higher, Juchen shares rose by more than 11%, Longsys, Tongyou Technology, etc. followed suit, PC and smart phone ODM, OEM factory current inventory level is still low, manufacturers are actively building inventory. Coal, heating sector changes pull up, Zhengzhou coal power limit, Jingneng Thermal Power back to the limit, Dalian thermal power, Hangzhou thermal power and other high rises, China's central and eastern large-scale rain and snow process into the heyday, Huanghuai and other places will have a heavy snowstorm or heavy snowstorm hit, some areas of snowfall has a certain extreme. Affected by the cold wave, the terminal coal heating demand continued to improve marginally, giving the market coal a certain amount of support.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and low on Thursday, showing an obvious weak pattern, turning green many times during the session, if it weren't for the financial stocks, they would have been green. At this stage, it is still a second bottom, don't expect too much from the market outlook, and at the same time pay attention to the changes, **class** good announcements continue, but the stock price has not improved, it is more obvious that Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and other big blue chips are good, the stock price is still falling, indicating that the lack of market confidence is obvious!Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 2950 points.
The ChiNext index rose nearly 1 percent on ThursdayFrom 2% to nearly 1%, there has been an obvious reversal, and the two cities have also changed from rising to falling, changing rapidly, and funds are still frequently in and out. Small and medium-sized micro companies are favored by funds, and at the same time, we should also pay attention to the chicken feathers in one place after the boom, the current differentiation between the two cities is particularly obvious, and the risk still needs to be put in the first place. Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1840 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
The recent meeting also once again emphasized that scientific and technological innovation should be emphasized during the economic transition period, industrial policy expectations are still strong, and there are still structural opportunities in related conceptual sectors. In the current environment of weak fundamentals, policy expectations and relatively abundant liquidity, A-share small, medium and micro cap stocks are expected to continue to dominate. At present, incremental funds continue to enter the market, including ETFs, institutional holdings, buybacks and other funds. Overall, the current valuation of the market is not high, the internal and external factors affecting the market have changed in a positive direction, and market confidence has gradually been established under the expectation of a rebound in the economic boom.
Concepts such as gaming, tourism, media and entertainment in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the net outflow of funds from concepts such as mixed reality, winemaking, and vitamins is relatively large. Ride a bull to see a bear spotThe Ministry of Culture and Tourism innovates the supply of tourism products, creates tourism demand with new supply, actively develops new products and new formats such as camping tourism, ice and snow tourism, sports tourism, marine tourism, tourism and performing arts, and has launched 7 national ski tourism resorts, the third batch of 22 national self-driving caravan 5C and 4C camps, 13 national sports tourism demonstration bases, the first batch of 24 smart tourism immersive experience new space cultivation pilots, 40 tourism and performing arts boutique projects, etc.
Domestic ice and snow tourism continues to heat up, compared with the same period in 2019, the three northeastern provinces as resource advantages to compete for the development of the ice and snow tourism market opportunities, industrial investment, consumption subsidies, tourism promotion policies and measures are expected to catalyze the performance of high-quality scenic spots with rich reserves of ice and snow projects and large space for scenic traffic improvement. Before the end of this year, the number of "skiing" ticket bookings increased by 113% week-on-week, nearly tripling from the same period last year, and the number of bookings for "skiing" themed group tours increased by about 70% week-on-week, an increase of nearly 30% from the same period last year.
On the tourism side, the year-on-year ratio of OCC in Sanya continued to increase, driving the RevPAR to +113 year-on-year3%, ADR was slightly under pressure year-on-year;On the business travel side, the revpar in Shanghai (+28. year-on-year7%) continued to improve year-on-year, and the sequential operating data declined. From the perspective of the industry, the recent announcement of the trial expansion of the scope of unilateral visa-free countries, the policy will stimulate the recovery of inbound demand, and the long-term growth of the industry will be supported.
Since 2023, outbound travel has slowly recovered, and the supply leader has benefited from an improvement in the pattern and an increase in gross profit margin. The local government has a strong momentum to become bigger and stronger in the cultural tourism industry, and the listed cultural tourism platform is expected to cooperate with state-owned assets and integrate local high-quality cultural and tourism resources. The participation of state-owned assets in the restructuring shows that the leading travel agency has recognized the resource capacity of outbound travel, and the leading travel agency may welcome the valuation repair.