The so-called "the future is undecided, you and I are dark horses", in the countdown to the last three trading days of 2023, the competition for the performance champion of active rights and interests is still stalemate. Since late December, the competition between the finals has intensified by a slight performance gap. On December 26, the Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange was set to open at 50The 29% return temporarily led the A-share active equity market. It is not difficult to see through the figure at the top of the performance list that in 2023, when the industry is rotating at a high speed, the impact of the theme betting direction on the performance of the first is particularly obvious.
From the smash hit AI dying down in the second half of the year, to the "Beijing Stock Exchange" halfway through the fourth quarter, to the sudden setback ...... the media game track at the end of the monthAffected by the market environment, economic cycle, policy changes and other factors, in the rapidly changing market, there are ** in the middle of the road can not support, there are also ** managers with forward-looking configuration capabilities, leading its products from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. Rotate to the top of the list
Maybe this year's A** field is difficult to give birth to the myth of "doubling the base", but at the end of the year, the announcement of the annual champion list is always eagerly awaited.
Wind data shows that as of December 26, there were 4,350 active equity ** investing in the A** market in the whole market (different shares are calculated together). At present, the top finals are relatively stable, but the top spot often changes hands overnight.
On December 26, the Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange was set to open at 50The 29% return topped the A-share active equity** list, and it was also the first time that the ** income hit a new high of 50% this year. The next four ** are the Oriental Regional Development, Soochow Mobile Internet, Taikang Beijing Stock Exchange two-year fixed opening and the new trend of Soochow value, and the income during the year was recorded respectively49% and 3724%。
In the past week, the competition for the champion base has been very fierce, including December 18, 19 and 21 are all selected "guards" by Taixin industry, and the three-day income is respectively51% and 4451%。On December 20, the Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange was set to open at 4958% earnings ranked first;On December 22, the development of the Eastern Region closed up 301% to 4333% of earnings rose to the top.
Champions are certainly unpredictable until the last minute, and uncertainty is particularly high this year. A third-party ** analysis and evaluation agency told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "The competition for the championship has always been mostly concentrated in the theme of the ultimate style. But unlike the new energy boom that has almost continued in 2020 and 2021, the speed of style rotation this year is very extreme. The performance and ranking of active ** will be more dependent on the bet on the theme, and the ranking between the same theme will also be affected by many aspects such as investment strategy, scale and liquidity, fee structure, and brand marketing. Looking at the "champion base" in the past three years, whether it is the "four consecutive hegemons" of ABC Huili's investment in emerging industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles in 2020, the fierce ride of Qianhai open source public utilities on the new energy "east wind" in 2021, or the heavy position of Wanjia macro in real estate in 2022, most of the performance contributions of several ** are due to the strong performance of their heavy industries. The above-mentioned ** evaluation agency further mentioned that in addition to whether to aim at the theme track, attributes such as the scale and share of ** will also have a certain impact on performance. On the whole, the scale of "small but beautiful" ** has stronger performance elasticity and explosiveness, which is mainly affected by the flexibility of position adjustment, selection and manager focus.
The reporter noticed that according to the ranking on December 26, in addition to the Golden Eagle Technology Innovation and the Golden Eagle dividend value of less than 2 billion yuan, the top 10 performance ** as of the end of the third quarter were less than 1 billion yuan, and there was even Taikang Beijing Stock Exchange set to open such a 30 million yuan "mini base" in two years. Many of the top performers are also trying to maintain stability by controlling large subscriptions during the month.
The theme is a battle for power
Which themes are being battled for the "finals"?
If you summarize the theme rotation in 2023, the opening of "BSI Bull"** in the fourth quarter is undoubtedly one of the most difficult waves to ignore in the near future. In the last week of December, the BSE 50 continued to rise, and on December 26, it was 1The 38% increase returned to 1,000 points, adding another boost to the theme** rush to the front row.
Reflected in the performance, it is the outbreak of the performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange in the fourth quarter. For example, the current "No. 1" Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange is scheduled to open for two years, and the annual increase as of the end of the third quarter is 2346%, although it also ran a good excess in the first half of the year, it is not difficult to see that it is the single-quarter income in the fourth quarter that doubles the return of ** for the year.
The triple resonance of sufficiently low valuation, high-quality targets and improved liquidity is the fundamental reason for the continuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange. Huaxia ** pointed out. At the end of November, the company said that a number of companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange have shown huge investment value this year, and investment opportunities are sparkling, and it is now a stage of change. A few families are happy and a few are sad. Before December 22, information media, culture, sports and entertainment were also once strong players on the championship list. Looking back on the fourth quarter, Taixin's industry selection stems from the boom in the media sector. The third quarterly report shows that the top ten film and television stocks are heavily positioned, such as Wanda Film, Guangguang Media, China Film, etc. However, due to the impact of the draft of the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games" issued by the National Press and Publication Administration, the stock prices of game giants fell sharply on December 22, and the performance of the heavy media theme ** was also greatly damaged. Taixin Industry Select, which dominated the list for three consecutive days last week, fell by 6 in a single day on the same day29%。The AI concept, which led the first half of the year and gradually fell silent in the second half of the year, especially attracted countless ** managers to step into the void during the year, and the performance ranking of the whole market also "changed blood". At the end of the second quarter, Nord New Life had a price of 75The yield of 7% won the championship in the active equity, and at that time, it was a heavy position in a number of computing power concept stocks, such as Tianfu Communication, Xin Yisheng, Zhongji Innolight, etc., but the above heavy stocks have experienced a sharp dive in the third quarter. As of December 26**, NORD New Life's annual revenue was -971%。However, in several ups and downs, there are still ** managers who lead the products under management to laugh at the end of the year. Among them, the annual performance of Oriental Regional Development at the end of each quarter can be firmly in the top 10 in the active equity market. As a flexible configuration type, the development of the Eastern Region in the first quarter of the heavy position of AI-led information and innovation, but in the second quarter began to turn into a defensive sector of food and beverage, looking back, it can be said that it is rare in the public offering market to step on the rhythm and smoothly grasp the opportunity to "turn" from AI. As of the end of the third quarter, the top 10 heavy positions in the development of the Oriental region were all liquor stocks, including Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, etc. However, with the continuous differentiation between the earnings trend in the fourth quarter and the performance of the liquor market, investors generally speculate that the ** has recently changed positions again and has a high probability of transferring to rising sectors such as lithium mines and military industry. In an investment idea sharing in the second half of the year, Zhou Siyue, manager of Oriental Regional Development, once said: "Although some industries have huge space in the future, they have accumulated a certain amount of pressure because of the short-term too fast. I hope that through the study of trends and the judgment of time and space, I will strive to pursue the stability of net worth through industry rotation or ** change. ”
Rational chasing the wind
It is worth noting that although the "champion base" is undoubtedly a reward for the performance and investment ability of the manager, some institutions pointed out that considering that the ranking determined by the market trend in a year or even less does not have medium and long-term reference value, investors should be wary of the "champion curse", and continue to pay attention to the adaptability of investment strategies in different market styles, as well as external factors such as changes in managers, rather than blindly following the trend.
At the same time, among the more than 4,000 A-share active equity ** in the whole market, only 318 have achieved positive returns this year, accounting for 8%, and only 56 have achieved positive returns of more than 10%. From the perspective of pursuing investment returns, there are actually more dazzling scenery in this year's public offering market.
One is the rise of overseas investment opportunities. Since December, as U.S. technology stocks have risen again, based on the earnings ranking on the 26th, the Huaxia Beijing Stock Exchange, which leads the active equity of A-shares, can only rank 17th in two years - the income champion and runner-up in the public offering market belong to GF Global Select and Huaxia Global Technology Pioneer two QDIIs, both of which have achieved 64 respectively this year95% and 5809% gain. The annualized rate of return from the 3rd to the 14th is between 50% and 60%, of which the S&P Information Technology is 5493% ranked 6th in the whole market, and the other 13** are all Nasdaq 100 ETFs and their connections**. The flow of equity investment from active equity to the index was also a major trend during the year. Wind data shows that since 2020, the proportion of passive index** in China's equity ** has increased rapidly, and this figure has exceeded 30% for the first time in the third quarter of 2023. Active equity**, which has been established for more than a year in 2023, has an average return of -14 in the latest version08%, while the average return of **ETF is -52%。It is reported that a number of equity public offerings have begun to lay out the ETF track during the year, or take it as a strategic goal in 2024.
However, on the whole, many institutions believe that 2024** will show a more obvious recovery trend, and the current allocation opportunities for equity assets are self-evident.
In the current environment, equity assets should be overweighted. Huaxia ** said in its 2024 outlook. From the perspective of valuation, *** is currently in a very cheap position in history, and its cheapness exceeds more than 90% of the time in history. From a fundamental point of view, the sluggish demand for real estate from the perspective of medium and long cycles and the fact that the new economy industry has not yet been fully completed still remain to be observed, and the gradual recovery of domestic demand in the short cycle and the possibility of realizing the path of policy space expansion are becoming more and more likely. From the perspective of funds, on the one hand, the flight of funds is affected by the interest rate differential between China and the United States, and on the other hand, it is to avoid China's policy and economic downside risks, but at present, the Fed's interest rate hike process is likely to end, and the recent Fed interest rate meeting is also frequently dovish, and the risks and uncertainties of China's economy and policy may gradually dissipate after the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee.
In terms of equity allocation, pro-cyclical and growth types have become the mainstream of institutional market recommendations in the near future. For example, Haitong Research Institute recommends a balanced and growth-oriented style allocation, focusing on the phased performance of the financial sector under policy catalysis, and attaching importance to hard technology and pharmaceutical themesCITIC** recommends a portfolio of pro-cyclical value on the left and low valuations of Hong Kong stocks, and beta assets such as pharmaceuticals, TMT and Hong Kong Internet on the rightIn Guolian***'s 2024 equity investment strategy, institutions recommend dividends, small-cap quantification, and technology growth**. Article**: 21st Century Business Herald).