The 2023 deal of the A** market will close this week, and the investment outlook for the market in 2024 has emerged in the private equity industry as we "say goodbye to the old and welcome the new". A number of first-line private equity companies said in an interview with a reporter from China ** Daily this week that in the context of the steady recovery of domestic economic fundamentals, strong policy support, and a gradual warming of the global liquidity environment, they can be moderately optimistic about the A** field in 2024, and it is recommended that investors consider it more in the dimension of "offensive and defensive balance". Next year** is worth looking forward to
At this point in time, I think it's safe to say that next year's A** will be better than this year." For the market in 2024, Su Xuejing, general manager of Qingli Investment, said. Su Xuejing said that from two aspects, next year's A** field is worth looking forward to. First, the external environment in 2024, especially the liquidity environment, will be much better than this year, and although it may not necessarily be the beginning of a new round of global liquidity easing cycle, at least there will not be a trend of liquidity tightening in the past two years. Second, from a domestic point of view, institutional investors have generally "given up the illusion of the old economy" and have begun to fully embrace the new economy.
Baoyin Investment said that from the latest data, the overall valuation of the current market has been at a historical low, especially the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index has been adjusted to about 10 times, which is close to the previous historical bottom at the end of 2018. From the perspective of funds, as the U.S. interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, global macro liquidity will improve significantly next year, and the net outflow of northbound funds, which previously led to pressure on A-shares, may gradually improve. From a policy point of view, fiscal, monetary and other policy aspects are worth looking forward to. Overall, Baoyin Investment said that it "has relatively optimistic expectations for A-shares** in 2024". Kou Zhiwei, a partner at Chongyang Investment, said the institution has a "positive attitude" towards China's ** market in 2024. According to Kou Zhiwei's analysis, from the perspective of time, it has been nearly three years since the adjustment of the A-share blue-chip stock sector represented by the CSI 300 Index, and the adjustment of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has been about four years. The valuation of the whole market, especially the mainstream products that represent the Chinese economy, has become very attractive. At present, the domestic macro policy adjustment is gradually increasing, although there are still uncertainties in many factors in the short-term market, and investor sentiment is not high, "but looking back on history, the bottom of each round of the market is the same." At the same time, Kou Zhiwei said: "The market often ushers in a turnaround in despair, and the time for A-shares to change from quantitative to qualitative change is approaching."
More investment opportunities are explored from the industry
Zou Wei, general manager of Jingling Investment, analyzed that although the overall performance of the A** field in the past two years has not been satisfactory, there are many signs that after the test of various aspects in recent years, many excellent industries and companies have not stood still, but have stood out and have global competitiveness. Therefore, for next year's A-share investment, we can start more from the industry and pay more attention to the structural opportunities in the market, and the breakthrough of the A-share excellent industry and the company's global competitiveness is worth looking forward to.
In addition, Zou Wei also believes that several key factors that will affect next year's A** market mainly include: money market interest rates, supply and demand, valuation levels of listed companies, company operating conditions, etc., "domestic funding interest rates remain low, liquidity remains abundant, and the overall performance of the capital market will be conducive to." Chenchen Asset further stated that "the market is currently pricing many high-quality assets at a low price, and in the midst of the huge expectation gap, investors can explore more cost-effective investment opportunities in 2024", and "they should remain more optimistic". Chenchen Asset also said that although it is relatively difficult to study and judge the macro fundamentals, from the tracking of many high-frequency data such as domestic express parcel volume and power generation volume recently, it has been seen that the domestic economy has shown signs of real improvement.
Baoyin Investment said that China's economic fundamentals are expected to usher in a steady recovery in 2024, and under the combined effect of policy, fundamentals and other factors, the RMB exchange rate is expected to gradually strengthen throughout the year, and funds are expected to flow back to A-shares. Against this backdrop, investment opportunities will be relatively extensive. The first is the platform economy and the Internet target. Although there may still be outflows from the relevant targets in the medium term, policy relaxation will provide opportunities for stock price repairThe second is the new energy sector, photovoltaic, wind power and other directions have suffered deep adjustments in the past year or so, but from a fundamental point of view, the compound annual growth rate of related industries in the next five years is expected to exceed 20%, and there is still a large room for growthThe third is artificial intelligence (AI) related sectors, AI is the theme of scientific and technological development in the next decade, intelligent technology will promote the rapid development of productivity, robots, vision Pro and other new technologies will gradually lead the global trend;The fourth is consumption, tourism and other sectors, especially inbound tourism and other subdivisions. Kou Zhiwei revealed that in 2024, Chongyang Investment will focus on investment opportunities in three sectors: first, the pan-technology sector under the superposition of a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and China's scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, the second is the pharmaceutical sector under the superposition of population aging and Chinese pharmaceutical companies going overseas, and the third is the advanced manufacturing industry that realizes import substitution through continuous iterative upgrading.
The strategic response still needs to be flexible
Since the beginning of this year, the A** market has continued, and the comprehensive differentiation has brought great challenges to private equity investment. Monitoring from Chaoyang Perpetual shows that in the first 11 months of 2023, the average domestic ** private equity institutions lost a small loss of 078%, the number of months of loss is higher than the number of months of profit, of which in August, the whole private equity industry suffered a deep drawdown in performance. In this context, for the strategic response in 2024, a number of interviewed private equity companies said that they need to maintain appropriate flexibility in stock selection and portfolio. Baoyin Investment said that while "the overall optimism about the recovery of A-shares in 2024 is expected to be restored", it will also gather two types of investment targets in its investment strategy. First, the early decline is large, with fundamental support of high-quality **;Second, with the recovery of fundamentals and the rebound of corporate performance, the prosperity is on the rise.
Zou Wei said that while Jingling Investment is optimistic about investment opportunities in the field of big consumption and big health for a long time, it will insist on looking for structural opportunities in its overall investment strategy in 2024, so it will be more flexible and proactive in management. From the perspective of "offensive and defensive balance", Chenchen Asset said that from the overall performance of A-shares this year, it is difficult to grasp the short-term style of the market, so in 2024, it will still consider "allocating a certain proportion of 'assets that follow the market trend' for flexible response", and at the same time establish bottom-line thinking, manage the concentration of ** and industry, and **, so as to better control the stability of the portfolio.
Kou Zhiwei further reminded that at this stage, investors generally tend to be blunted to the market's positive information, and in this case, a key to the A-share investment strategy next year is to "maintain a high level" as a whole.
Article**: China ** Daily).