Reporter of Newsweek OutlookChen Yan
The main line of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Super Project has been officially completed, and the picture shows the east tower and west artificial island of the Lingdingyang Bridge of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor (taken on November 28, 2023) by Deng Hua This publication.
Looking back at 2023, China's economy has stepped out of a recovery curve:
In the first quarter, the economy rebounded and achieved a good start;In the second quarter, the overall recovery trend continued, and the growth rate of some indicators slowed downIn the third quarter, major economic indicators stabilized and rebounded. In the fourth quarter, the macro-control combination policy has been effective, and the economy has stabilized and increased significantly.
The first economic work conference held not long ago was final: China's economy has rebounded for the better, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted.
Looking back on this year, our confidence and confidence in doing a good job in economic work come from the determination of the basic and stable economic operation, the vitality of the main body of business to maintain a positive trend, the ability of macroeconomic regulation and control to be effective, and the potential to accelerate the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.
At present, the economic operation is still facing many difficulties and challenges, but in the long run, driven by the superimposed effect of scientific and technological innovation and deepening reform, China's economy is undergoing qualitative changes subtly, the endogenous driving force of "seeking innovation and change" is becoming stronger, and the pace towards high-quality development is firmer.
Determination is the primary keyword of China's economy in 2023.
In the past year, despite the downward pressure brought about by the risks and challenges from abroad and the intertwining of multiple domestic factors, the macroeconomic policy is still "stable", and there is no strong stimulus in the form of flooding.
Behind this, it fully demonstrates the determination of China's economy. In an interview with the reporter of "Lookout" Newsweekly, Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center, said.
Looking back on 2023, China's economy will focus on the three key words of stability, growth and quality. In terms of stability, China's economy is resilient, has full potential, and has wide room for maneuver, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed and will not change. In terms of growth, China remains the world's largest growth engine. In terms of quality, high-quality development has been steadily promoted, and new industries, new models and new drivers have been continuously born.
Looking at the trend from the data, the basic trend of upward improvement and long-term improvement has not changed.
The "macro four corners" supporting the economy are running smoothly: in the first three quarters, GDP increased by 5% year-on-year2%；In the first 11 months, the national household consumption index was 0 year-on-year3%；In the first three quarters, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country was 53%, down 03 percentage points;The size of foreign exchange reserves remained stable at 3More than $1 trillion.
In the severe internal and external environment, it is not easy for China's economy to maintain its determination, face difficulties, promote various policies to achieve results, and achieve a steady recovery and upward trend. Zhang Liqun said.
Stability is the characteristic of China's economy in 2023, and it is also a portrayal of China's economy in the past 10 years. From 2013 to 2022, GDP increased from 593 trillion yuan increased to 121 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of more than 6%, and the total economic output reached 18 trillion US dollars at the average annual exchange rate, ranking second in the world. Per capita GDP increased from 43,497 yuan to 85,698 yuan.
In the coordinates of global economic development, China is still the largest engine of global growth.
To understand China's economy, it is necessary to consider it in the coordinate system of global economic development. China's economy will contribute one-third to global economic growth in 2023 and remain the largest engine of global growth.
In the past 10 years, China's total economic output has accounted for 12 percent of the world economy3% has risen to about 18%, and the total amount of goods has ranked first in the world for 6 consecutive years, with an average annual contribution rate of more than 30% to world economic growth.
Recently, many international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), have intensively raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, casting a "vote of confidence" in China's economy.
From the perspective of quality and efficiency, new drivers are constantly emerging, and high-quality development is improving quality and efficiency.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 11 year-on-year respectively3% and 118%, which is higher than the growth rate of all fixed asset investment by 82 and 87 percentage points to continue to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. The added value of aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing in the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 18 percent year-on-year9%, the growth rate is higher than the added value of all industries above designated size by 149 percentage points.
The investment momentum in high-tech industries is strong, and the new kinetic energy sector has maintained rapid growth. From Hefei's "Sound Valley" to Wuhan's "Optics Valley", from Beijing's construction of a national blockchain technology innovation center, to Shenzhen's strengthening of basic research platforms such as brain science and synthetic biology ......Driven by innovation, industrial agglomeration has been boosted, and a number of new growth points, growth poles, and growth belts have been accelerated.
According to the data, China has built 45 national advanced manufacturing clusters in the fields of new generation information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, and new energy, with a total output value of 20 trillion yuan in leading industries.
China's GDP is expected to grow by 5About 6%, with an annual growth of 5About 3%, which is higher than the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. Chen Weidong, president of the Bank of China Research Institute, said that looking forward to 2024, the external environment may improve, the effect of the steady growth policy will continue to appear, domestic demand is expected to continue to repair, and China's economy will return to the potential growth rate driven by policy and market drive.
From the healthy development of the private economy, the transformation of new and old kinetic energy through scientific and technological innovation, and the acceleration of the development of the economy in various places, the "report card" of China's economy in 2023 is full of vitality.
A series of encouraging, supporting, and guiding policies have boosted confidence in the development of the private economy.
The private economy is an important foundation for promoting high-quality development, and it is also an important subject reflecting the vitality of China's economy. In July 2023, the "Opinions of the Communist Party of China on Promoting the Development and Growth of the Private Economy" was released. In September of the same year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a private economic development bureau. At the same time, a series of policies and measures have been introduced in various localities to add more synergy to the high-quality development of the private economy.
Zhang Liqun said that the intensive introduction of measures to support the development of the private economy shows that the signal to further stimulate the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship of hundreds of millions of business entities is more positive, and the policy intensity is more significant, and it also shows that the development momentum of China's economy is accumulating, and the vitality of restoring growth is constantly increasing.
From supporting major industrial provinces to "bravely take the lead", to studying and introducing a number of measures to promote the high-quality development of specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises......Measures to stabilize the industry and strengthen the foundation, support the steady development of the industry, and encourage enterprises to work hard.
With the implementation of supporting policies and measures, the development expectations of various business entities are stable. Data show that in the first three quarters, new private enterprises increased by 15 percent year-on-year3%。The survey shows that the proportion of private enterprises with optimistic expectations about the macro economy, operating income, market demand, and external development has increased, and the market expectations and development confidence of private enterprises have been further improved.
Promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, and add impetus to the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.
Since 2023, the first domestically produced large-scale cruise ship has been named and delivered, the C919 large passenger aircraft has achieved commercial operation and entered the stage of industrialization development, the construction of 8 national computing hub nodes of the "Eastern Data and Western Computing" project has all started, and a series of major projects have been unveiled, which has become a vivid portrayal of continuous breakthroughs in key areas and continuous optimization of industrial structure.
In September 2023, "new quality productivity" was put forward for the first time, becoming the current economic and social development proposition and reform proposition. To develop new productive forces, it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to give birth to new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and further promote the construction of a modern industrial system.
Scientific and technological innovation has given birth to new fields and new tracks. In 2023, the construction of the national laboratory system will be vigorously promoted, the implementation of major national science and technology projects will be accelerated, traditional shortcomings such as aero engines and gas turbines will make great progress, and new scientific and technological tracks such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology will be in the first echelon in the world.
A set of dazzling data is exciting: 45 national advanced manufacturing clusters have been laid vertically and horizontally, with a total industrial output value of more than 10 trillion yuan in the first half of the yearThe country has cultivated 10 specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises30,000 large and medium-sized enterprises, chain collaboration, integration and innovation;There are more than 8,000 "5G + Industrial Internet" projects, and nearly 10,000 digital workshops and smart factories have been built, and digital technology has empowered the real economy.
From the good start to the closing battle, the "fight economy" in various places has accelerated its development.
At the beginning of 2023, all localities have made arrangements on issues such as stabilizing the economy and high-quality development, and released a positive attitude to promote economic development throughout the year.
Start at the beginning of the year. More than 10 provinces and municipalities have launched measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and extending subsidies for car purchases, giving priority to the recovery and expansion of consumptionJiangsu, Zhejiang and other major employment provinces have launched cross-provincial recruitment, and all localities have implemented the policy of giving priority to detailed employment, and carried out more than 10,000 recruitment activitiesAnchor the construction of advanced manufacturing and digital industrialization in many places, and promote industrial upgrading with scientific and technological innovation.
Striving for the economy is the theme throughout the year. At the beginning of October, many places successively clarified the "task book" of key work in the fourth quarter to prepare for the "closing battle" of the economy for the whole year. These intensive deployments have promoted the implementation of policies, effectively driven the economy to stabilize and rebound, and further stabilized market expectations.
Taking industrial production as an example, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year in January and October 20231%, the growth rate rose 0 from the same period last year1 percentage point. "Among them, manufacturing production is accelerating month by month, which has become the main reason for the rebound of industrial production. Zhou Jingtong, vice president of the Bank of China Research Institute, said that in the manufacturing industry, benefiting from the strong demand for new energy equipment at home and abroad, the core competitiveness of the industry, the improvement of supporting capacity and other factors, the production of midstream equipment manufacturing industry has accelerated.
In line with the goal of building a strong country, growth rate is no longer the only indicator to evaluate economic development, and capacity has become an important dimension to measure the quality of economic development.
In 2023, China's economy will still be able to show strong resilience and sufficient momentum under internal and external pressures, which fully proves that the ability of China's economy to operate with high quality is steadily improving. It is mainly reflected in the regulation and control advantages of macro policies in the same direction, the supply advantages of complete industrial system, and the overall planning advantages of regional coordinated development.
Macroeconomic regulation and control work in the same direction to form a joint force, highlighting the advantages of policy regulation and control.
In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth increased to 113%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 832%, effectively hedging the contraction pressure of external demand. Looking back on the macro policies in 2023, the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand is particularly eye-catching, and the policy measures to promote consumption and stabilize investment will continue to exert force, promote the accelerated release of domestic demand potential, and significantly enhance the driving effect.
A good economic environment is inseparable from the support of macroeconomic policies. In 2023, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, intensify macroeconomic policy regulation and control, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, strive to promote the overall economic recovery, and solidly promote high-quality development.
We will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, reduce taxes and fees, and provide financing support in key areas, so as to resolve risks and ...... in the economic and financial fields in a prudent and orderly mannerThe continuity of strategic deployment and the consistency of macro policy orientation have injected strong impetus into creating a sound and stable economic environment.
The industrial system is complete, highlighting the supply advantages of the whole industry chain.
More than 200 enterprises collaborated efficiently, and the domestic large aircraft C919 was put into commercial operationThe Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway was put into operation, and China's high-speed railway "went to sea" for the first time with the whole system, all elements and the whole industrial chainThere are more than 2,200 sets of equipment for the first time, and the localization rate of equipment is 934%, the world's first first-class nuclear power plant was put into commercial ......In the first three quarters of 2023, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 6%, 2 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size.
Industrial competitiveness comes from the completeness of the industrial system. China is the only country in the world that has all 41 industrial categories, 207 medium industrial categories and 666 industrial sub-categories listed in the United Nations Industrial Classification.
In 2023, Jiangxi will clarify the "one chain and one policy" to promote the extension of the chain of advantageous industries, supplement the chain and strengthen the chain;Henan sub-chain implementation of key subdivisions of special tackling;Zhejiang focuses on four trillion-level industrial clusters such as green petrochemicals and promotes the construction of advanced manufacturing clusters ......Supplementing the chain, extending the chain, upgrading the chain, and building the chain, the continuity and competitiveness of industrial development in various regions have been continuously enhanced.
Zhang Liqun said that China has a complete industrial and manufacturing system, formed a strong production and supply capacity, combined with the super-large-scale domestic market, not only for scientific and technological innovation to provide a broad space and all-round support, but also for the future of China's economy to maintain a long-term positive trend to provide inexhaustible power.
Promote regional synergy and highlight the advantages of overall development.
On April 12, 2023, the "Yangtze River Delta Regional Collaborative Innovation Index 2022" report was released. The report shows that the Yangtze River Delta regional collaborative innovation index has increased by nearly 1 in 10 years5 times.
As an important part of the Yangtze River Delta region, Anhui and Jiangsu have cooperated in recent years to establish a mutual recognition system for work permits for foreign high-end talents in the Nanjing metropolitan areaThe two comprehensive national science centers in Hefei and Shanghai Zhangjiang have carried out "two hearts and two innovations".Relying on the scientific research strength of Hefei and Hangzhou, iFLYTEK updates and iterates on key products such as industrial inspection robots.
Promoting coordinated regional development is an important part of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and focusing on promoting high-quality development.
Build the three "power sources" of high-quality development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area;Drawing the "River Strategy" for the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin;We will further promote the large-scale development of the western region, the comprehensive revitalization of the northeast, the rise of the central region, and the development of the eastern region ......* The "big chess game" of regional coordinated development has been planned, and constantly open up a broad new space for China's economic development.
The economic work in 2023 reflects China's strong ability to control the macroeconomy, which will lay a new starting point for 2024 and create more favorable conditions for the further recovery of the economy in 2024. Zhang Liqun believes that if the strengthening of concentration brought about by "stability" is the basic feature of China's economy, then the improvement of capacity caused by "progress" is the biggest shining point of China's economy in the future.
The scene of the "Village Super" football match in Rongjiang County, Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province (taken on June 10, 2023) by Yang Wenbin This magazine.
Development should be calculated as a long-term account, an overall account, and a comprehensive account. The "report card" of China's economy in 2023 highlights the development potential of China's economy, which is mainly reflected in the super-large-scale market, high-quality talent team, and high-level opening up.
Demand advantage in hyperscale markets.
Today, the scarcest resource is the market, and this is where China's huge advantage lies: with a population of more than 1.4 billion, the world's largest middle-income group, the world's second-largest importer of goods, and a super-large economy, a super-large market.
Under the super-large-scale market, China's consumption potential is huge. From the perspective of the "troika" that drives economic growth, consumption is a bright spot in 2023. 1 In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6 percent year-on-year9%, a significant increase of 63 percentage points;In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 83 percent to economic growth2%, driving GDP growth by 44 percentage points, higher than the average contribution rate of 59 in 2017 and 2019 before the epidemic5%。
This is mainly due to the concentrated release of the backlog of consumer demand in the early stage, and the superposition of supply optimization and business upgrading to stimulate potential consumer demand. Chen Weidong said that in 2023, the consumption field will show new characteristics, service consumption will grow faster than physical consumption, tourism, catering, entertainment and other fields will perform strongly, residents' consumption will become more rational, and cost-effective goods will be more favored.
There is still potential to dig deep into new growth points in many fields and implement comprehensive policies to expand domestic demand. **The Economic Work Conference listed "focusing on expanding domestic demand" as the focus of economic work in 2024, and proposed to "form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other".
The resource advantage of the continuous optimization of the scientific and technological talent team.
On December 15, 2023, the Ministry of Science and Technology's "China Science and Technology Talent Development Report (2022)" showed that the full-time equivalent of China's R&D personnel increased from 324 in 201270,000 person-years increased to 635 in 202240,000 person-years, ranking first in the world.
In recent years, China has improved the basic legal system for the construction of scientific and technological talents, continued to promote the construction of scientific research integrity, improved the ability of scientific and technological ethics governance, vigorously promoted the spirit of scientists in multiple forms and channels, and promoted the integrated development of science popularization and scientific and technological talents, and a good innovation ecology for scientific and technological talents is taking shape.
The data shows that China's scientific and technological talent resources are abundant, the international academic influence of top scientific and technological talents continues to increase, and the number of highly cited scientists in the world has increased from 111 in 2014 to 1,169 in 2022, ranking second in the world. More outstanding young scientific and technological talents are playing a leading role in major national scientific and technological tasks, and more than 80% of the participants in the national key R&D program are under the age of 45.
* The first of the nine key tasks of the Economic Work Conference is to lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and to develop new quality productive forces. Yuan Lei, deputy director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that scientific and technological innovation fundamentally depends on talents, and the total number and quality of China's scientific and technological talent team are constantly improving, and it is cultivating a large-scale, high-quality, structurally optimized, and prominent role of scientific and technological talents, which will provide strong support for the cultivation of new kinetic energy.
Expand high-level opening up to the outside world and consolidate the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment.
In the first three quarters of 2023, China's foreign trade report card was announced: the total import and export value was 308 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 02%。Among them, the import and export scale in the first, second and third quarters rose quarter by quarter, and the import and export in August and September increased positively month-on-month for two consecutive months, and the import and export scale in September hit a new high in a single month in the year.
On the whole, in the context of the unstable momentum of world economic recovery, China's foreign trade has withstood the pressure and shown a positive development trend. Especially in the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative were better than the whole: imports and exports were 1432 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, accounting for 46 percent of China's total import and export value5%。
In the opinion of the interviewed experts, with the continuous improvement of the level of opening up, more space can be opened for the development of foreign trade and foreign investment.
In 2023, China will build a cooperation platform with pragmatic measures and continue to send clear signals of expanding high-level opening-up: 24 policies and measures in six areas will be introduced to increase efforts to attract foreign investmentInternational exhibitions such as the CIFTIS, the Canton Fair, the International Import Expo, the Digital Trade Fair, and the Chain Expo will be held with high standardsCompletely abolish the restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector;We will further promote cross-border services** and high-level opening-up of investment.
In 2023, China will continue to increase its efforts to open up to the outside world, steadily promote institutional opening-up, benchmark high-level international rules, create a high-standard market system, and create more space for enterprises to better integrate into the international market, which is conducive to further consolidating the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment.
In the third quarter of 2023, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade conducted research interviews with nearly 700 foreign-funded enterprises, and eighty percent of the foreign-funded enterprises surveyed expected their profits to be flat or improve this year, and nearly ninety percent expected their profits to be flat or improve in the next five years.
* The Economic Work Conference deeply analyzes the current economic situation and systematically deploys the economic work in 2024. The "five musts" guide us to further deepen our understanding of the regularity of doing a good job in economic work in the new era, so that we can have more confidence and confidence in the basic trend of China's economic rebound and long-term improvement. The "Nine Key Tasks" set out the key points for doing a solid job in economic work, and we have the confidence to continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
Looking forward to the future, with the superposition of the stock policy and the incremental policy, the policy effect continues to accumulate, and the positive factors continue to increase, we have every reason to believe that China's economy will continue to pick up and improve in the long run.
*: Lookout Newsweekly.
Review: Yu Zaozao.
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Editor: Hu Na.