The future of the city lies in
* Is it promising, it is worth investing, and it is worth developing your career
The answer to this question may have been clear in the past few years, more than ten years, but in these two years it has become extremely chaotic.
Because the underlying logic that supported the development of cities, property markets, and industries in the past has undergone essential and structural changes.
First of all, from the perspective of financial capital, the introduction of foreign exchange and the mechanism of currency issuance that have lasted for 20 years have changed.
From the perspective of economic positioning, the 40-year catch-up economy is nearing its end.
Then, from the perspective of population, China's urbanization, the national urban absorption, and the increase in rural population concentration are also nearing the end. There are no more people in the countryside, and there are no means of production for the cities to plunder indefinitely.
After visiting and researching all the way from north to south, I saw with my own eyes that the industry that once relied on foreign trade and imported economy to survive was extremely withered, but the part that relied on domestic demand was thriving.
In the past in the exchange rate policy and the first policy dividend, the more like a fish in water, the more withered.
From the south to the north, it can be clearly felt that the pace of recovery of people's livelihood at the bottom of the north is much higher than that in the south.
From the perspective of the recovery of the basic livelihood economy, it generally shows a decline from north to south.
At the micro level, there is a division between cities within each province, and the situation may be very different from the cities in one province or even only about 100 kilometers apart.
In particular, on my trip to Zhejiang, the riches of Yiwu and Yongkang were impressive, while the depression in Ningbo, the darling of the garment industry, shocked me.
Why is there such a big difference?
I did a lot of thinking and came to a conclusion:City Capital Accumulation Rate!
What is called "capital accumulation rate" is actually the growth ratio of reagent precipitation capital, which is the real capital retention growth rate of a group or region from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
As a simple example, there are two companies, and one of them has assets of 1000w at the beginning of the year.
After a year of operation, the performance growth of enterprise A this year is only 2%, but by the end of the year, the net fall into the pocket of 200W, then its capital accumulation rate is as high as 20%, which is purely precipitated in the company's assets growth.
Company B, which has implemented the strategy of fighting the first war and expanding recruitment, has increased its performance by 10% this year, but by the end of the year, it has only earned 500,000 yuan excluding costs, so its capital accumulation rate is only 5%.
That is to say, no matter how much money you have invested in this year, only the real growth is precipitated in the asset pool, and the rest is fleeting!
The same goes for a city.
Only when the accumulated capital accumulated in the city at the end of the year is growing positively, can there be more profit increments to be distributed to the people living in the city, and these people may increase their income and increase their expectations.
Only when the income and expectations of these people increase, it is possible to promote the value or increase the value of other assets and industries.
In the past 20 years, it has been a high-speed catch-up and foreign investment-attracting economic structure, and at the same time, it has been accompanied by the promotion of urbanization strategy.
Most central cities are in an environment of net growth in the rate of capital accumulation, which is why everyone is Xi to growth and thinks that the net growth rate of capital accumulation rate is the normal common sense and rhythm.
But the objective fact is that the net increase in the rate of capital accumulation over the past 20 years has not been universal!
The underlying logic of the development of the past 20 cycles is actually a model in which the entire northern, northwestern, and northeastern regions provide net capital output to the southern coastal areas, and the rural areas of the country provide capital export to their central cities.
Therefore, except for a small number of areas in the south, the capital accumulation rate of rural areas, counties and towns in the country is negative all year round, and the capital accumulation rate in southern cities is much higher than that in the northern interior.
The boys and girls all went to the big cities, saying that they were making money to support their families.
But after they went to the cities, only a small part of the money flowed back to the countryside, and most of their income was deposited in the city to eat, drink, pull, spread, and live.
The northern cities also basically show a net outflow of population to the south, a net outflow of industry to the south, and a net export of the currency preservation rate to the south.
But now, the foreign trade-oriented economic policy of collecting seigniorage from the north and then subsidizing the southeast coast by benchmarking the capital has come to an end, and the urbanization process of extracting the capital accumulation rate from the countryside in various cities has also ended.
As a result, the rate of urban capital accumulation has declined rapidly, and even become negative in a large area.
This is also the reason why most people feel that money is hard to earn and the future is very confused.
So, is urbanization over?
Not really!
The lower-level nodes have been drained, and the policy differences between the north and the south have begun to be slowly smoothed out in the context of common prosperity.
Next, the inherent pattern of low in the north and high in the south, low in the border and high in the middle will be broken, and China's urbanization process will completely enter the "Gu bucket capital competition" between provinces and cities.
We will find that in the future, in the north and Sichuan, which were once economically passive, a number of central cities will rise rapidly to catch up with the southeast.
And a large number of cities on the southeast coast will collapse rapidly and be carved up by the surrounding strong brother cities.
How to find out these cities?
First: look at the population!
In general, the growth of the rate of capital accumulation must be closely related to the net increase in population!
Only cities with a net inflow of population can have a future, which is also the fundamental reason why various cities and provinces have set off a war for people.
People are the most important asset carrier, this person is in **, the family is in **, the labor value he creates is there, and its consumption value is also there.
Only by locking people up, can the capital that accompanies him settle in this city.
The most domineering in this regard is the twin cities of Xi'an and Sichuan in Guanzhong, and now Hong Kong has also begun to join the ranks of the war for people, which is an irreversible trend.
Second, look at the source of the industry and the load-bearing of the industry.
When a factory comes, the workers come, and when a big company comes, taxes come.
That's right, but it's definitely the worst!
This is the narrative structure of "eight out of ten sentences are true, and the remaining two sentences are hidden and not said".
Nine truths and one falsehood are not pitted!
Some cities are committed to bringing in high-end talent, but ignore low-end labor-intensive workers.
It is committed to attracting large enterprises and high-end enterprises to open branches, while ignoring low-end labor-intensive factories.
It is committed to promoting high-tech and cutting-edge to strive for the first, but ignores the support of small and medium-sized enterprises.
This kind of city is a !! without any future
Because you don't look at the glamorous and glamorous concept he says, he has no capital accumulation rate at all, and he is a pure God of Wealth!
For example, Ali e-commerce, cities across the country look at him as fragrant, but how much capacity does it really have to provide capital accumulation for the city?
It can be said that it is very small!
First of all, how many actual jobs can this kind of enterprise provide for this city when it comes to this city?Two hundred?Or three hundred??
So will Alibaba's local profits eventually stay in the local branch or be remitted to the Hangzhou headquarters?
It's obvious!
It is completely impossible to wipe out the net profit of the headquarters city from the branch city with 2w posts in 200 months, it is impossible!
Don't look at the high GDP provided by these companies, all those GDP are passing gods!
He puts 1 million salary expenses in your city, and most of the time he will siphon out absolutely no less than 1 million capital increments from your city.
Otherwise, he'll die!
It can be said that in addition to the cities with perfect and huge real industries and first-class industrial clusters, they can obtain increments from Ali's empowerment through their own strength, and the rest of the cities that are rushing to introduce Ali to the top of the list are the blood banks of Hangzhou!
In many cases, this kind of city, which lacks the support of the middle and low levels, blindly emphasizes the introduction of large enterprise branches, and they do not insert nutritional tubes into themselves, but these blood vessels.
It's purely that the local leaders are exchanging the people's insides for their own face!
Similarly, in the future, cities that blindly promote the idea of "striving for the first" and support local leading large enterprises while ignoring small and medium-sized enterprises will not have a future.
The reason is so simple!
The CEO of a 10 billion enterprise, will the deposit, investment, and construction be local in your city?
Who doesn't run to bigger cities after making a lot of money in their hometown?
In the total number of large enterprises in Ningbo, how many people's assets are not placed in Shanghai?Didn't the family go to other places or even overseas to enjoy happiness?
People have a lot of money!What can you do with him?
Don't say it's impossible, now the people who were born, grew up in China, and made their fortunes in China have sharpened their heads and moistened outward.
That's a truth!
For a city like Ningbo, he is too far away from heaven and too close to Shanghai!
In the world of capital, the baby you tightened your belt to support, but whenever he has a big future, the first thing he thinks about is definitely "how can I get rid of the relationship with my hometown"!
What they are most afraid of is not that they feel guilty about eating abalone and lobster and watching their hometown parents starving, but that they must not let people know that they are from a poor place.
Capital is a world of interests, not a world of etiquette.
Who is the one who really keeps the family and keeps the business?
It is a person who has a little bit of interest, but is detached from the support of the family and the support of the villagers.
It is those middle-waist enterprises that have tens of millions or ** billions in their hands, but they can't reach the middle-waist enterprises that can let him go to other sides and have a bunch of factories and a bunch of businesses in the local area.
These are the only people who make money from somewhere else, and then Lei is not running around in the local area.
If you are big, you can't stop him if you raise your feet, and if you are small, you can't stop him if you run around.
Therefore, in the future, in addition to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong, which are high-end capital enrichment places that draw blood from all over the country, other cities will fight for "waist"!
A few high-end enterprises are the head of the car, and a large number of middle-waist enterprises carry the world's "rich peasant cities", which have the ability to ensure a positive capital accumulation rate.
Only by developing in these cities will you not fall into the reverse current of recession.
Only by understanding the underlying logic that will underpin the changes in China's economic landscape over the next 10 years can you make the right choice, or help your children make the right choice.
In fact, this kind of choice was also made in the early days of the previous generation, and it is precisely because your elders chose to leave the rural areas against the current and enter the cities in the era of great development, that there is a huge difference between you and the rural left-behind and urban migrant workers today.
Now that the first phase of urbanization is over, we are once again faced with the choice question that once again confronted our ancestors, which will determine the future wealth and destiny of you, your children, and your family.
Even if it is the easiest way to buy a house, if you leave this logical line, the house price will fall no matter what.
So be sure to think deeply and think carefully!