Yu Ze is a professor at the School of Economics, Chinese University.
2023 is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the year for economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control.
The general secretary pointed out at the 2023 economic work conference that on the whole, the basic trend of China's economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed, and what we are facing is the problems in progress and the troubles in development, and we must enhance confidence and confidence. "Problems in progress and troubles in development" is a major judgment on the current problems facing the economy.
China's economy has always developed and grown in overcoming challenges. After a steady transition in epidemic prevention and control, China's economy will generally rebound in 2023, and high-quality development will be solidly promoted. 2023 is the year of recovery, and it is not realistic to achieve the best results in the pursuit of "initial recovery from a serious illness", and it mainly depends on the trend of economic recovery and the potential for development.
In 2023, the recovery of China's industrial production will accelerate, and from January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 4% year-on-year3%。In the first three quarters, the tertiary industry increased by 6% year-on-year, and from January to November, the national service industry production index increased by 8 year-on-year0%。
From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7% year-on-year2%, and retail sales of services increased by 19% year-on-year5%。The contribution of domestic consumption to economic growth rose, and the cumulative year-on-year contribution to GDP reached 83 in the first three quarters2%。From the perspective of the whole year, both supply and demand have shown an accelerated recovery trend.
At the same time, investment in high-tech industries has continued to remain above 10 percent, the "new three things" have led to export upgrading, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, and the future potential of China's economy has been accumulating. Vertically, the main indicators of China's economic and social development this year have improved markedly compared with last yearHorizontally, China's economic growth ranks among the world's major economies and remains the largest engine of global economic growth.
* The Economic Work Conference pointed out that some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote the economic recovery, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks.
Difficulties and challenges, such as the lack of effective demand, are ostensibly cyclical – the pandemic has had a huge impact on the balance sheets of residents, businesses and localities, and business entities need to recuperate. But there are also structural reasons that are more important. For example, the downturn in the real estate market is caused by major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market after urbanization enters a new stage. The demand side needs to fully release the improved demand, and the supply side needs to shift from the traditional large-scale development model to pay equal attention to development and urban renewal, and accelerate the construction of a multi-level supply system. These "problems in the course of progress and troubles in the course of development" must be resolved in the course of development.
Behind the problems in progress and troubles in development" is that China's economic development has entered a period of transition, and the transformation of old and new kinetic energy is still in progress.
China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage in a low-cost period to a high-quality development stage after a high-cost period. The mode of economic development is shifting from extensive growth of scale and speed to intensive growth of quality and efficiency, the economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to in-depth adjustment of stock adjustment and optimization of incremental coexistence, and the driving force of economic development is shifting from traditional growth points to new growth points. The biggest change is that China's economic aggregate has grown from small to large, from the original incremental drive to a stage where the proportion of stock optimization is getting higher and higher.
China's economy is undergoing a "first-class ceremony", and at this time, it is even more necessary to enhance confidence and confidence. We should not stay superficial in looking at "problems in progress and troubles in development," but should see that the basic trend of China's economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed. At present, China is promoting high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and injecting new momentum into the economy by expanding the road of industrial innovation.
Editor: Jiang Xinyu, Gao Peining, Zhang Yanling.