The real estate market in 2023 experienced a short period of "small spring", but began to decline in the second quarter. However, in 2024, with the optimization and adjustment of relevant policies, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize and transform to a new model. In this process, both ends of supply and demand will exert efforts to achieve a balanced and sustainable development of the market. This article will elaborate on the changing trend and future development direction of the real estate market from both the demand side and the supply side.
On the demand side, the real estate market will continue to decline in 2024Buying a housecost andBuying a housethresholds to meet rigid and improved housing needs. Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have introduced substantial easing policies, while BeijingShanghaiIt is also expected to reduce the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate for second homes, and optimize the identification standards for ordinary houses, and reduce transaction taxes and fees. Second-tier cities are also expected to further relax housing purchase restrictions, and may even lift them altogether.
In addition, in order to meet the demand for housing, the construction of the "three major projects" in affordable housing and other aspects will also continue to be strengthened. This is not only able to increaseReal estate investment, stableEconomyGrowth and market expectations can also promote the establishment of a new mechanism of "people, housing, land and money" linkage, and accelerate the establishment of a new model of real estate development. With the large-scale construction and supply of affordable housing, China's affordable housing andCommercial housingIt will be developed in a coordinated manner, which will gradually improve the dual-track housing system of "market security". In the future, the demand for rigid housing will be mainly met by affordable housingCommercial housingis mainly oriented to improvementSexual needs
In the medium and long term, there is still a big gap between China's urbanization rate and per capita housing area compared with developed countries. Therefore, China still has a certain room for growth in the housing demand of the new urban population and the demand for improved housing from small to large and old to new. Be that as it may,Real estate investmentThe proportion of GDP will not be as good as before, our countryEconomyDevelopment will rely more on scientific and technological innovation, green and low-carbon developmentDigital economyand other new kinetic energy.
On the supply side,Real estate enterprisesWill continue to enjoyFinancingSupport the detailed implementation of policies. Financial institutionsExpressed willingness to seek to meet the needs of different ownership of real estate enterprises reasonableFinancingdemand, for normal operation of real estate enterprises will be given full loan support. At the same time, for the issuance of bonds by private real estate enterprisesFinancingFinancial institutionsWe will continue to use the "second arrow" to support. In addition, it is expected that the rules of the land market will continue to be relaxed to enhance the activity of the land market.
With the continuous development of policies,Real estate enterprisesRequiredFinancingand land supply is expected to speed up the recovery. Coupled with the gradual improvement of residents' expectations after the epidemic and the continuous increase in income, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.
It should be pointed out that the adjustment of the real estate market this time is different from the past, and it is a major adjustment of the development model after the major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market. In the past few decades, the real estate market has experienced rapid development, which has been essential for boosting consumption and promotingEconomyGrowth and improvement of the people's living environment have played an important role. However, real estate companies have excessively pursued speed and scale, and adopted a development model with high debt, high leverage and high turnover, resulting in excessive financialization of the real estate market and difficulty in adapting to the new requirements of high-quality development.
At present, the total supply of the real estate market has been basically satisfied, but the structural contradiction of supply still exists, especially the lack of affordable housing has become a shortcoming in the development of the real estate industry. Therefore, the construction of the "three major projects" such as affordable housing will continue to make efforts to promote the establishment of a new model of real estate development. With the large-scale construction and supply of affordable housing, China's real estate market will usher in a new stage of developmentCommercial housingThe gradual and coordinated development will become the direction of development in the future.
The real estate market in 2024 will further adjust and gradually stabilize, and shift to a new development model. On the demand side, policies will continue to declineBuying a housecost andBuying a housethresholds to meet housing needs. On the supply side,Real estate enterprisesWill continue to getFinancingYes, and the rules of the land market are also expected to be further relaxed. Such policy adjustments will guide the real estate market to gradually find a balance and achieve sustainable development. At the same time, the new model of real estate development will focus on affordable housing and promote the establishment of a dual-track housing system. AlthoughReal estate investmentThe contribution to GDP may decline, but our countryEconomyIt will gradually rely on scientific and technological innovation, green and low-carbon andDigital economyand other new kinetic energy. The development of the real estate market will continue for our countryEconomyto contribute to stability and sustainable development.