The fertility rate has fallen off a cliff, and the three major drawbacks have rapidly emerged
In recent years, the nation's newborn birth rate has plummeted. In 2017, the total number of newborns in China was 17.65 million, but in 2022, it dropped to 96.06 million. According to the statistics of the relevant departments, if there are no accidents, the total number of newborns in the country will drop to less than eight million by 2023. And this number is still declining.
In addition, according to the ** of the parties concerned, the overall birth rate in our country fell to 1 in 202209。This means that a couple can only have one child, and this is constantly changing the demographic structure. This low birth rate is even worse than that of South Korea and Japan. At the same time, China is also facing a serious social problem - the aging of the population. By the end of 2022, there were 280 million people aged 60 and above in China, and it is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035.
There are three main factors that have caused the precipice decline in China's birth rate: First, the cost of marriage for young people is too high, and the dowry alone costs 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, and many young people are unwilling to get married.
2. Domestic housing prices are too high, even in second- and third-tier cities, the housing price of 90 square meters is 1.5 million, and most people have to bear decades of mortgages after buying a house, and no one wants more children. 3. The cost of raising a child is too high, and the child will spend at least 570,000,000 yuan from birth to college work. Many young people are afraid that if they have children, their quality of life will plummet, and they are reluctant to have children.
But the question is, if our country's population continues to decline, what will be the negative impact on our society and economy?First, if the birth rate continues to decline, it will have a huge impact on many industries. For example: obstetrics and gynecology hospitals, confinement centers, baby products (including milk powder, toys, children's products), kindergartens, private primary and secondary schools, etc. As a result, many people who do this job are forced to change careers.
At the same time, people don't want more children, which will also have a certain impact on the development of the real estate market, because some families originally planned to have two or three children, so they had to change the house they originally lived in to a larger house. And now, with the declining birth rate, fewer and fewer people just need to buy a house.
Second, consumer demand continues to decline due to the decline in the number of newborns. This is due to the fact that during the period from birth to employment, a continuous domestic demand will be formed, which is very beneficial to the economic development of the country. But as the number of young people continues to decline, and the spending of older people has become very limited, it is obviously impractical to rely on domestic consumption to stimulate the economy.
Third, as the birth rate continues to decline, the burden of pension insurance will further increase in the future. On the one hand, there are now many elderly people who have reached retirement age and are about to retire and can get a pension. On the other hand, the number of young people employed is also decreasing, and the pensions of the working people cannot support so many old people. At that point, there will be a big gap in pensions.
Today, the birth rate across the country is plummeting, falling by nearly half in just six years. The factors contributing to the decline in fertility are: high cost of marriage, high housing prices, and high cost of raising children.
However, with the continuous decline of the population, it will have an impact on related industries, and the demand in the consumer market will continue to decline, and it will also increase the burden of pension insurance. What can be done to deal with the declining birth rate?Only by starting from the three aspects of society, individuals and ** can we reverse the current situation of continuous decline in fertility levels.