The philosopher Leibniz once said, "No two leaves in the world are exactly the same." ”
Similarly, no two companies in the world are exactly the same, but in the business case, successful companies have one thing in common, that is, they inevitably go through three stages: gestation, explosion, and maturity.
NIO may be the next car company to usher in an explosive period.
Changan, Geely and other car companies have successively joined NIO's battery swap system, started to reduce costs and increase efficiency internally, and purchased JAC foundry ......There is a lot of good news for NIO in the market, and the strong performance of the third-quarter financial report has once again added to the many good news.
There are all kinds of signs that NIO has ushered in the eve of takeoff.
The net loss was 4.5 billion, but the stock price rose
With a net loss of 4.5 billion yuan in the third quarter, NIO's share price rose.
According to the financial report released by NIO, NIO's revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was 190700 million yuan, an increase of 117 percent month-on-month4%, compared to a net loss of 45 percent in the third quarter600 million yuan, down 248%。After the release of the earnings report, NIO's U.S. stock price rose to 7$96.
Why is NIO favored by the capital market?
Before discussing this issue, we need to understand why NIO is.
The performance in the first and second quarters continued to be sluggish, and many people even questioned that it was difficult to cross the line of life and death
The answer is still to be found in the financial report.
According to the financial report, NIO's main income is two: automobile sales and other sales.
Automobile sales are well understood, that is, the income from the sale of cars, and other sales are mainly the sales of accessories, used cars, and energy solutions. Among these two revenues**, automobile sales are the absolute revenue support of NIO, accounting for more than 90% of the total revenue.
In other words, whether NIO's revenue performance is strong or not is most intuitively reflected in the sales of cars.
Let's take a look at NIO's sales performance in the first two quarters:
In the first quarter of 2023, NIO delivered 31,041 vehicles and sold 92 vehicles200 million yuan, down 375%, down 02%；
In the second quarter of 2023, NIO delivered 23,520 vehicles and sold 71 vehicles800 million yuan, down 22 percent from the previous month1%, down 249%。
It is not difficult to see that NIO's deliveries in the first half of this year were very bleak, with only more than 10,000 units in June. It was not until the end of June that Weilai said that it would strip off the battery swap service and cut the price by 30,000 yuan in disguise, that Weilai ushered in a sharp increase in delivery volume in the third quarter, and the financial report naturally completed the reversal as expected.
NIO delivered 55,432 vehicles in the third quarter, up 75% year-on-year4%, an increase of 135 month-on-month7%, automobile sales of 17.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 459%, an increase of 142 month-on-month3%。Plus 16With other sales of 600 million yuan, NIO's financial performance was very strong compared with the previous two quarters.
190.The total revenue of 700 million yuan, the gross profit margin jumped from 1% to 8%, and the gross profit margin jumped from 6The gross profit margin of automobiles jumped from 2% to 11%, and the cash reserves increased by ...... 13.7 billion yuanIt also made the capital market see the hope of NIO's turnaround.
You will find that the direct reason for all this good performance is the volume of deliveries, and NIO also said in the financial report that the increase in sales is mainly due to the increase in car deliveries.
It also corresponds to the long-standing saying in the automobile market, "There is no car that cannot be sold, only a price that cannot be sold." "If NIO can make a fuss on ** as early as possible, whether.
In the first and second quarters, netizens will not question "can NIO survive 2023"?
It's a pity that there is no if in the world, after reading the financial performance of the third quarter, many people may be tempted to ask:Why did you go earlier?
Preparations for the eve of take-off
As early as the first quarter of this year, at the first meeting, Li Bin, CEO of NIO, believed that the competitiveness of NIO models in the current market was insufficient. This can also be proved from the sales performance after this year's disguised price cut.
So why are NIO's models considered uncompetitive?
We are still looking for answers in the financial report. In NIO's third-quarter financial report, there are several data:
1.R&D expenses were 30400 million yuan;
2.Selling, general and administrative expenses for the third quarter were 36100 million yuan;
3.Cost of sales in the third quarter was RMB175400 million yuan;
In terms of R&D, in addition to R&D of cars, it also needs to R&D chips, mobile phones, and batteries, and many R&D expenses have saddled NIO with heavy expenditures.
In terms of sales, general and administrative expenses, it mainly includes sales staff costs, sales activities, marketing activities, etc., in addition to the unavoidable sales staff costs, NIO's expenses on marketing activities and sales activities are also not a few.
Every year, NIO Day has to charter airplanes, high-speed rail carriages, and hotels, and the annual rent of NIO House Oriental Plaza store reaches 70 million to 80 million yuan. In comparison, the annual rent of Xpeng's Sanlitun experience store is only 10 million yuan, and the annual rent of Tesla's Taikoo Hui experience center is only 11 million yuan.
Li Bin himself often sends red envelopes in the car owner group, eats with the car owner, and pays the car owner's participation fee after the NIO Day every year.
Finally, there is the cost of sales, which covers all manufacturing expenses such as raw material procurement, processing, manufacturing, transportation, and other fixed expenses, which is also a huge expense.
In addition, NIO has always focused on battery swap services in the market, and the construction costs, personnel costs, and rent costs of battery swap stations are also huge expenses.
Numerous expenditures have become a heavy cost "burden" for Weilai, and it is also destined that Weilai's models must take the first-class route, which is a bit out of place at a time when the first-class war has become the mainstream of the market.
In this case, why is the author firmly optimistic about NIO?The main reasons are as follows:
First of allAt the first meeting in the third quarter, Li Bin revealed that in terms of project investment, he followed the basic principle of "projects that cannot improve the company's financial performance within three years without investment", and gave an example of the battery business, believing that in the production of batteries, the gross profit margin could not be improved within three years, so he chose to develop cells, materials and battery packs, and entrusted other companies to produce to reduce costs.
SecondlyIn terms of enterprise operating costs, NIO has also recently launched a "10% layoff" cost reduction and efficiency improvement measure. Li Bin also revealed that there will be layoff expenses in Q4, but the effect of layoffs and cost reduction will be reflected next year, which will be reduced by about 2 billion yuan.
And thenIn terms of the cost of car manufacturing, NIO has always chosen the OEM model, which is also a common method used by new forces in the early days, because the factory input cost is too high, which puts great financial pressure on the enterprise.
However, when car companies have reached a certain stage of development and have sufficient capital reserves, having their own factories can save huge OEM costs and reduce production costs according to the scale effect of industrial production.
NIO also just purchased the JAC foundry on December 5 and is ready to start making cars independently. At the Q3 financial report** meeting, Li Bin said that if it is completely manufactured by itself, the manufacturing cost will drop by 10%, which means that NIO's gross profit margin will continue to increase.
FinallyThe battery swap mode of Weilai has not been able to get rid of the label of "burning money" before, but it has recently also had the eyebrows of "returning blood", and many large manufacturers such as Changan and Geely have announced that they have joined the NIO battery swap network, and many companies are communicating.
You must know that at present, the number of battery swap stations of NIO is already the first in the country, and it is obvious that it can use the battery swap capacity to help OEMs increase the sales chips of trams, and after the OEMs join the NIO battery swap network, they will also share the high cost of building stations for NIO, which is obviously a win-win cooperation.
In the capital market, Li Bin also said that some investors are interested in NIO Power's independent financing, and said that NIO Power is very valuable to NIO, and he will not rule out the possibility of financing NIO in the future.
All of the above belong to the category of "throttling", and they are also preparations made by NIO for takeoff.
How to solve the "reservoir dilemma"?
NIO is like a "reservoir", open source is like a "water inlet", and throttling is like a "water outlet".
In the case of reducing the outlet, try to expand the inlet to the maximum to ensure the amount of water stored in the pool.
As the problem of "throttling" is gradually solved, NIO's biggest problem is still in "open source", that is, sales.
You know, although NIO's sales performance in the third quarter has increased its growth, the pace of competitors has been more rapid.
In the third quarter, Xiaopeng's sales performance was 11,008, 13,690, and 15,310, although the overall performance was not as good as NIO, but it was in a state of continuous growth, and in the past November, Xpeng's sales exceeded 20,000 units, setting a record high in a single month. The total sales of another old rival, Ideal, in the third quarter have exceeded 100,000 units, far surpassing NIO.
On the other hand, although NIO's overall sales rose sharply in the third quarter, the latest sales in November were in a state of decline compared with July. In the fierce market competition, increasing sales has been the key to NIO's "open source".
So how does NIO solve the "reservoir" dilemma?
The author believes that the turnaround will appear in NIO's next models.
In terms of facelifted modelsAlthough Li Bin said at the first meeting, "we will not take price reductions in exchange for sales, but will continue to maintain stability, continue to improve gross profit margins, and boost sales through the improvement of sales and service system capabilities", but Weilai's next models are still worth looking forward to.
After all, at the moment of Weilai's "throttling", its cost will be greatly reduced, and the gross profit margin will also be greatly increased.
At this meeting, Li Bin also revealed two developments, one is the flagship model to be released at NIO Day on December 23, and the other is the development progress of the first car of the sub-brand Alps.
Let's start with the flagship model. There is news on the Internet that the new car may be named ET9, and the starting price will be more than 600,000 yuan.
You must know that Weilai's models are mainly concentrated in the flagship of 300,000-400,000 yuan, although it is in the high-end ranks of electric vehicles, it is still the best range that many consumers can reach, and in the more advanced market, the market is almost in a blank state.
For example, Porsche's pure electric sports car Taycan, although it has been criticized for its intelligent configuration, its sales in the first three quarters of 2023 still reached 2790,000 units, in this ** range, is already a very good result. The main reason is that in this ** range, there are not too many choices of pure electric vehicles on the market.
It can be seen that NIO is entering a market full of opportunities and less competitive pressure.
Let's look at the Alps. Alps is mainly aimed at the mid-range market, ** in the range of 200,000-300,000 yuan. You must know that the new energy mid-end market of 200,000-300,000 yuan is the main market for many car companies, and it is also extremely easy to shine.
For example, Xpeng has successively released Xpeng G6 and Xpeng G9 this year, and Xpeng can largely rely on these two models to complete the sales reversalAnother example is the new question M7, which helped AITO car sales soar, also belongs to this ** range;For another example, Zhiji LS6, which also belongs to this ** range, also helps Zhiji complete the sales counterattack ...... with its super configuration
So what about NIO's advantages?
First of all, Weilai has always focused on high-end models, and entering this ** range itself has a certain "dimensionality reduction" advantage.
SecondlyAlps can also enjoy the advantages of NIO's "throttling", and may also be fully competitive. Li Bin also said at the ** meeting that the first car of Alps is the best car in the history of NIO's new model VB, and he is very confident in it.
FinallyLi Bin mentioned that Alps and the original NIO models will share some services, such as service centers, battery swap networks, etc., which will also bring intuitive market competitiveness to Alps.
It can be seen that it seems that it is not difficult for NIO to solve the problem of "open source", coupled with the frequent favorable "throttling" measures, NIO obviously has all the conditions to get out of the "reservoir dilemma".
Conclusion
There is such a line in Xing Ye's movie "The King of Comedy":
It was pitch black ahead, and nothing could be seen. ”
No, it's beautiful after dawn. ”
Sales declined, marketing declined, and losses increased ......NIO in 2023 is also shrouded in darkness, which also makes many people doubt the new force of the earliest IPO: how long can NIO live?
However, after analyzing NIO's financial report, I believe that NIO's development potential is far brighter than most people think, and the "darkness" it is experiencing now is not a test on the eve of takeoff
Therefore, about the "future" of NIO, the author thinks it may be like what is said in "The King of Comedy":
"It's beautiful after dawn. ”