In order to cope with the problem of missile production capacity, the Taiwan military has opened 16 production lines of the Zhongshan Academy of Science and Technology, including Wanjian bullets, Hsiungfeng series missiles, Tianjian series missiles, Jianxiang unmanned aerial vehicles, and other models, among which the key models are Hsiungfeng III and Extended Range Hsiung Feng III, extended-range air-launched Tianjian II missiles, and ship-launched Tianjian missiles.
In 2022, the Sun Yat-sen Academy of Sciences will produce more than 800 missiles per year, and it will reach 1,000 in 2023. However, such an approach could also touch the continent's three red lines, raising the risk of conflict.
The first red line is that the Taiwan military has continuously upgraded the "Hsiungfeng-2E" land-attack cruise missile, and even increased the range of the Hsiung-2E with the support of US technology, or used the missile's range advantage to carry out provocations. The missile, developed by the Zhongshan Institute of Science and Technology, can carry out tactical strikes against targets at a distance of 1,000 kilometers.
On 6 February, the Sun Yat-sen Institute of Science and Technology continued to test-fire missiles at the Jiupeng base in Pingtung County, and this was a deliberate provocation knowing that our warships were patrolling around Taiwan to deter, which could lead to a mistaken attack or a miscalculation. This is because the Taiwan military has a history of accidentally firing missiles, such as the Hsiungfeng missile accidentally hitting a fishing boat.
The second red line is that the Taiwan military may deploy medium-range missiles to follow the footsteps of the United States and Japan. Recently, the U.S. military announced that it will deploy medium-range missiles in Kyushu, Japan, in 2023, and the currently selected models are LRHW land-based hypersonic missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Japan has also announced the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles on the first island chain, which could be as many as 500.
Against this background, it is also possible that the Taiwan military will cross the red line and purchase offensive Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States and deploy them on the island. Because the shore-based Harpoon missile has also entered the procurement list, the missile is not defensive** and can actively strike surface ships.
The third red line is that the Taiwan military may participate in the US military's combat exercises and strengthen military ties with the United States and Japan. In the US National Defense Authorization Act passed last year, the US military has invited the Taiwan military to participate in the 2024 RIMPAC military exercise, and does not rule out participating in relevant exercises involving the deployment of medium-range missiles in the near future.
This is because the US military has recently paid great attention to the deployment of medium-range missiles, and Japan's Kyushu has been selected as the deployment site for the US medium-range missiles, and Japan has also actively cooperated with the US military by equipping Tomahawk cruise missiles to deter targets in China's inland and equipping Type 12 shore-to-ship missiles to blockade the waterways of the first island chain.
To sum up, from the perspective of the Taiwan military's 16 missile production lines being fully opened, this is the final desperate fight to prepare for it, combined with the fact that many US generals have revealed on different occasions that there may be a conflict between 2025 and 2027, it is not difficult to infer that the United States and Japan are stepping up preparations for the various elements of the conflict, and the Taiwan military is the protagonist, and collusion between the two sides is inevitable.