Overnight, the spot **sharply**, once soared more than 3%, reaching a high of $2,144 and a low of 2020$39, but then gave up all of its gains and ended up closing at 202905 USD. In today's European session, **narrow**, it is currently hovering around $2031.
The market's enthusiasm for interest rate cuts has been suspended!
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed downThe Dow Jones stopped its fourth consecutive gain, and the S&P and the Nasdaq, which rose for two consecutive days, retreated on Friday。As of **, the Dow fell 4106 points, a decrease of 011% at 3620444 points;The Nasdaq fell 11954 points, a decrease of 084% at 1418549 o'clock;The S&P 500 fell 2485 points, a decrease of 054% at 456978 points.
In addition to U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries also soared, with yields soaring, with the 10-year Treasury yield surging at 61 basis point at 42568%。
U.S. stocks, **U.S. bonds**, but if you look closely, there was no major incident last night, more likeA premeditated sell-off
After last night, the market realizedCutting interest rates by the Fed is excessive。This also makes the December Fed meeting even more important, as the market will need to respond to the rate cut early next year.
In this regard, overnight, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expressed their views.
Goldman Sachs saidThe market expects the Fed to cut rates by 125 basis points over the next 12 months, including a 50 basis point cut by the end of June。Goldman Sachs strategists recommend selling SOFR 95., which expires in June 202425 call options, short bets on the previous force to cut interest rates.
Morgan Stanley, a well-known U.S. stock bearer on Wall Street, said that as bond yields fluctuatedAfter the U.S. stock market in November, it will show a trend at the end of the year
The S&P 500 is currently in overbought territoryThis level of technology is often considered a precursor to a sell-off。The slowdown in the economy and the decline in inflation have led to bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates as soon as March.
Looking ahead to next year, BofA** said that the overall ** could go higher next year, but it will be a more difficult process. The bank expects thatThe S&P 500 will close at 5,000 by the end of 2024, which is about 9% higher than the current level.
Next, the market is about to usher in the next phase of the expected reshaping, especially this Friday's non-farm payrolls dataIt may further cool the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts, regardless of Friday's data,Wall Street will use the data to speculate that the market expects too many interest rate cuts
CME Group's tools show that the interest rate** market is currently pricing in the Federal ReserveThe probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in March next year is close to 60%., compared to the probability of only about 22% expected a week ago.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
The U.S. military launched an air strike!
On December 3, local time, the Iraqi militia "Islamic Resistance Group" issued a statement saying that the US military attacked a facility of the Iraqi militia armed "Popular Mobilization Group" in Kirkuk Province in northern IraqAs a result, five people from the group died
On November 22, the U.S. military attacked a facility of the Popular Mobilization Group in the Jurfsehr area, south of Baghdad, killing eight people and wounding four.
Since the outbreak of large-scale clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on October 7, US military positions in Iraq and Syria have been frequently attacked by armed groups.
In addition, Israeli forces launched intensive air strikes on the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis.
According to **4**, the Israeli army began to attack that afternoonKhan Younis, a city in the southern Gaza Strip, launched intensive air strikesand heavy clashes with local Palestinian militants.
Since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed 15,899 PalestiniansMore than 20,000 people were injured. The Israeli side said that about 1,200 Israelis died in the clashes.
It is also worth mentioning that there was a tragedy in Africa.
On December 4, local time, Nigeria ** said that the Nigerian military was inAn unknown number of civilians were killed in an operation using drones against insurgents, when they were getting together for a religious event.
The attack is the latest in a recent series of accidental attacks on residents in a volatile region of Nigeria.
Nigeria did not provide the number of people, but the non-organization said120 people were killed in the attack
Jintou.com: 125-day ** trend analysis
For the market performance, industry insiders believe that the Fed is still expecting interest rate cuts. In the future, short-term gold prices have upward momentum, and the long-term trend is still uncertain.
Although a number of Wall Street investment banks have given expectations that the international gold price will hit $2,300 next year, or even a better range, the long-term trend of gold prices in the future still faces many uncertainties, including whether the geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will continue, and whether global central banks will slow down their hoarding efforts because gold prices are at an all-time high.
Of course, some analysts believe that from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, it is the shopping season in Europe and the United States, the wedding season in India and the Lunar New Year in China, and the consumer demand for physical goods in these major consumer countries is expected to remain strong, which may provide upward momentum for gold prices in the short term in the future.
From a technical point of view, the intensity is not as expected, the idea of high altitude and low in yesterday's article, the overall need is to fluctuate in the 2050-2100 area, but last night's fluctuation was around 2020-2070, this strength is relatively small.
Jintou.com.
Because **is still at a high level, so the bulls are considering how to use the high position to escape, if **to**, the bulls need to leave, and to leave, the main position should be around 2050, or even below.
In terms of location, the previous platform, the central axis of about 2040, has become a relatively important pressure area, and the overall pressure is within the range of 2035-2045. From the perspective of the lower support, the first support is the 10** of the daily level, which can refer to around 2018 in terms of position, and then the 2000-2009 area is further down. If it is resolute, the trend is expected to fall below yesterday's low of 2020 and move below 2018 to test the 2010-2015 area.
From a trading point of view, short in the 2035-2045 area, look around 2015. If we follow this rhythm, we can discuss the overall structure later.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and is not used as a basis for buying and selling!Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!
List of high-quality authors