Text: Red beans.
The current world can be described as full of wars and disputes. In contrast, the land of South America, or one of the few pure lands in the world, at least did not have major wars. However, this situation may come to an end due to a series of operations by Maduro in Venezuela.
According to the latest report from the global network, Venezuela local time on December 4,The results of a referendum organized by Maduro showed that 96 percent of the population agreed to include the Essequibo region of neighbouring Guyana. Subsequently, the Venezuelan military stated that it would regain the territory under the mandate of the people, and the war between Venezuela and Guyana was on the verge of breaking out!
Data map: Venezuela** Maduro).
In fact, the territorial contradictions between the two countries over the Ethiopian region can be said to have a long history. The area was given to Venezuela by Spanish colonizers in the 18th century, but Queana did not recognize it. In the early 20th century, the United States organized an international tribunal of arbitration to make an official ruling on the border between the two countries, assigning the area to Queana.
The Essequibo region refers to the four districts on the west side of the Essequibo River, which together account for 62% of Guyana's total area, up to 160,000 square kilometers, but the area is mostly mountainous and forested, with only 230,000 permanent residents, and is very poor and backward. So Venezuela has not paid attention to this land either.
Map of the territory of Guyana, with Essequibo region in the western four districts).
However, that all changed in October of this year. In October this year, oil companies discovered a large amount of oil resources in the Ethiopia region, which caused Guyana's oil reserves to surge in an instant. Under such circumstances, Venezuela is naturally very jealous, which is why Venezuela wants to regain this land.
But after careful analysis, Maduro's move is obviously "the drunkard's intention is not to drink". Because Venezuela is the world's largest oil reserve, there is no shortage of Guyana's newly discovered oil. In addition, neither the United States nor Brazil, as the two great powers of the Americas, wants war in the region. Moreover, Maduro is not on good terms with the United States, and once it takes the initiative to send troops to attack Guyana, the United States is likely to send troops to intervene, and then Venezuela will be tantamount to hitting a stone with an egg.
The people of Venezuela who are marching their activities)
So,Maduro's organization of the referendum is clearly a campaign rather than a large-scale war against Guyana. So why does Maduro need to build momentum?This is undoubtedly related to the lifting of oil ** restrictions on Venezuela by the United States.
For a long time, the United States has been actively sanctioning Maduro** and vigorously supporting the opposition, and its sanctions on Venezuela's oil** have dealt a serious blow to Venezuela's economy. Against this backdrop, Maduro once announced the cancellation of the 2024 year, citing the instability of the domestic situation
Venezuela's oil industry).
But in October, the standoff between the United States and Venezuela improved slightly. The United States lifted restrictions on Venezuela's oil**, and at the same time, Maduro also announced that it will be opened in the second half of 2024***There is a clear equivalent exchange in these two things. After the restart, Maduro had to boost his popularity and pave the way for his re-election, so he reasserted his sovereignty over the Essequibo region and rallied more of his own people around him.
Venezuelan soldiers are undergoing military training)
Of course, large-scale wars do not happen, and small-scale conflicts are still quite possible. Venezuela has more than 100,000 regular army troops, which is more powerful militarily. But its capital is far from the Essequibo region, and it seems unlikely that Venezuela will have an advantage in the event of guerrilla warfare in Guyana. Therefore, how Maduro will balance war and peace will undoubtedly have an important impact on whether he can be re-elected next year, and success or failure is a matter of thought.