In economics, the literal translation of "national economy" should be national economy, which used to be translated as "national economy", and later in China, the economy happens to have both national and people.
The "national coefficient" in this article is the coefficient of state-owned enterprises and the coefficient of non-state-owned enterprises, referred to as the national coefficient, which refers to the proportion of state-owned and private enterprises in the national economy.
Adhering to China's basic economic system and adhering to the "two unswerving" principles is the fundamental institutional guarantee for China's continuous economic development and growth. The report of the 18th to 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China constantly pointed out that "it is necessary to build a high-level socialist market economic system, adhere to and improve the basic socialist economic system, unswervingly consolidate and develop the public economy, unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public economy, give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources, and better play a leading role." ”
So, what is the basic socialist economic system?What is a public-owned economy?How does the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources?How does it work in two unwavering policies?Can the two unwavering policies have monitoring and regulation indicators?What is the appropriate proportion of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises?What is the appropriate proportion in different regions and industries?What is the current situation of the proportion of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in the national economy and in various regions and industries?How does industrial policy regulate the national coefficient in different industries?
This article attempts to answer the above questions. Data** and study methods are detailed in the notes.
1. The distribution of national coefficients in different regions of China.
First, we conducted a comparative analysis of the GDP data and national coefficients of all provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (hereinafter referred to as provinces), and took the top 8 provinces in terms of GDP as the first circle, the 8 provinces ranked 9th to 16th as the second circle, and the 15 provinces ranked 17th to 31st as the third circle.
1.The first circle: the top 8 provinces in terms of GDP, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, and Fujian, accounting for 53% of the country's GDP35%。Among them, the core of Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces accounted for 20% of the national GDP94%, the central layer of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang provinces accounted for 34 percent of the country's GDP66%。
2.The second circle: 8 provinces ranked 9th to 16th in terms of GDP, including Hunan, Anhui, Shanghai, Hebei, Beijing, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, and Chongqing, accounting for 26 percent of the country's GDP28%。
3.The third circle: 15 provinces other than the 16th place in GDP account for 20 of the country's GDP36%。
The top two (core layers) in the first circle (core layer) Guangdong and Jiangsu account for the top 1 and 5 of the country's GDP. The top four (central layer) of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang account for more than 1 3 percent of the country's GDP. The eight provinces in the first circle account for more than 1 2 of the country's total GDP. The 8 provinces in the second circle account for 1 4 of the national GDP, while the 15 provinces in the third circle of GDP only account for 1 5 of the national GDP, which is only equivalent to the proportion of Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces in the core layer.
This shows the concentrated effect of China's economic development and the imbalance of economic development.
Left: The share of each province in the country's GDP;Right: The proportion of the coefficient between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.
Based on the data of industrial enterprises above designated size and listed companies from the National Bureau of Statistics, we consider the comprehensive proportion of input and output, and assign weights to comprehensively calculate the coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the industrial industry of each province, and vice versa, the coefficient of private enterprises.
The coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the eight provinces in the first circle is 2809% (of which the state-owned enterprise coefficient of the first two provinces is 18.)73%, and the coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the top 4 provinces is 2217%）。The coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the eight provinces in the second circle is 4449%。The coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the 15 provinces in the third circle is 5043%, and the average national coefficient of the last 6 provinces in terms of GDP is 643%。Nationally, the average coefficient for SOEs is 38%.
As you can see,The coefficient of state-owned enterprises from economic development to underdeveloped areas is in an absolute state of increase, or the coefficient of private enterprises is in an absolute state of decline. The coefficient of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in the core and central provinces is 28, and the coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the core layer is even lower than 20%. The coefficients of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises in the first circle are distributed in a three-seven distribution;The second circle layer is distributed in four or six;The third circle layer is distributed in five or five;The coefficients of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in the country are distributed in four or six ways.
We did a regression analysis of the GDP and state-owned enterprise coefficients of each province in 2022. The results show that the higher the coefficient of state-owned enterprises, the lower the GDP of the region, and the negative correlation between the coefficient of state-owned enterprises and GDP is robust, or the positive correlation between the coefficient of private enterprises and GDP is stable.
The mathematical regression equation shows that if the coefficient of private enterprises increases by 1%, the GDP of the province will increase by 112 billion yuan. Although the average coefficient of state-owned enterprises in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces is 187%, but due to its large GDP, the amount of GDP represented by its state-owned enterprises is equivalent to the total GDP of the bottom six and a half provinces in terms of GDP, and the average coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the last six provinces is 643%。
2. The coefficient distribution of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign enterprises in the industrial industry of each province.
According to the National Statistical Yearbook, in 2021, there were 441517 industrial enterprises above designated size in China, of which 25,180 were controlled by China, accounting for 6% of the totalThere are 325752 private industrial enterprises, accounting for 74%;There were 43,455 foreign-invested industrial enterprises and industrial enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, accounting for 10%;and 47,130 other enterprises, accounting for 11%.
We use revenue and profit data as output factors, and total assets and net assets as input factors, and calculate the national average coefficient of state-owned enterprises and 33 for private enterprises5%, and the coefficient of foreign enterprises is 215%, and 14% for other enterprises.
In the coefficient of private enterprises:
Provinces above 40% are: 1Hunan (53%);2.Fujian (52%);3.Jiangxi (50%);4.Ningxia (45%);5.Hebei (44%);6.Henan (43%);7.Jiangsu (40%).
Provinces below 20% are: 1**5.2%）；2.Beijing (586%）；3.Hainan (6%);4.Gansu (11%);5.Qinghai (12%);6.Jilin (15%);7.Shanghai (16%);8.Tianjin (19%);9.Inner Mongolia (195%）。
In the coefficient of foreign enterprises:
Provinces above 30% are: 1Tianjin (473%）；2.Shanghai (468%）；3.Beijing (356%）；4.Hainan (354%）；5.Guangdong (34%);6.Jiangsu (332%）；7.Jilin (313%）；8.Liaoning (301%）。
Provinces below 10% are: 1Gansu (24%）；2.Qinghai (28%）；3.Yunnan (39%）；4.Xinjiang (41%）；5.Guizhou (46%）；6.Shanxi (57%）；7.Shaanxi (69%）；8.Inner Mongolia (86%）；9.Hunan (88%）；10.Ningxia (96%）。
What is striking is that the coefficient of private enterprises in developed regions such as Hainan, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin is very low, especially in Beijing, where the coefficient of private enterprises is only 586%, which is unexpectedly low, should arouse local ** concern, properly regulate and control the structure, and pay more attention to promoting the development of the local private economy. For the five northwestern provinces with a foreign enterprise coefficient of less than 10%, the two provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou in the southwest, and Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in northern China, the introduction of foreign investment should be strengthened, and the foreign enterprise coefficient should be increased to at least 10%.
Facts have proved that provinces with a high level of economic development have better social and industrial ecosystems than provinces with low levels of economic development under the proportion of the actual national coefficient. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, Zhejiang Province is a "demonstration zone for high-quality development and construction of common prosperity". After excluding other enterprises that are difficult to divide in nature, the coefficient of private enterprises in Zhejiang Province is 055, the coefficient of foreign enterprises is 029, the coefficient of state-owned enterprises is 016；The corresponding figure for Jiangsu Province is 045，0.37，0.28；Guangdong Province is 037，0.41，0.22；Fujian Province is 054，0.28，0.18。
The average coefficient of private enterprises in China's four most dynamic coastal provinces is 048, the average coefficient of foreign enterprises is 031, the average coefficient of state-owned enterprises is 021, basically a five-three-two distribution. This may be a reasonable distribution indicator.
3. The distribution of national coefficients of various industries in China.
1.The distribution of national coefficients of listed companies in China by industry.
Since the National Bureau of Statistics does not disclose data on state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises in all industries except industrial industries, we first studied the national coefficients of each industry of listed companies.
According to our data on all listed companies in China, among the 6,771 listed companies in China (including A-shares and the global ** market), there are 1,583 state-owned enterprises, accounting for 234%, and the market value, revenue and profit in the whole industry account for 040/0.58/0.66, according to the weight of market capitalization, revenue, and profit. 25 calculated, the proportion coefficient of state-owned enterprises is 051。
The basic conclusion is:In the total number of listed companies in China, state-owned enterprises have a slight advantage over non-state-owned enterprises. The weight of the national coefficient is 051：0.49。
Specific to the primary industries of the Global Industrial Classification System (GICS), state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have an advantage in five industries, including energy, public utilities, finance, industry, and real estate, and the coefficients of state-owned enterprises are as follows. 52；In the five industries of daily consumption, raw materials, communication business, non-daily consumption, health care, and information technology, they are not in an advantageous position, and the coefficients of state-owned enterprises are respectively. 20。
The basic conclusion is that among the 11 primary industries, state-owned enterprises have an advantage in 5 industries, and non-state-owned enterprises have an advantage in 6 industries.
The coefficient of state-owned enterprises is distributed in the first-level industry of GICS.
Specific to the 148 fourth-level industries, state-owned enterprises are distributed in 130 of them, covering 88% of the industries, and 58 of them occupy an advantage. Non-state-owned enterprises are distributed in 145 industries, covering 98% of the industries, and 90 of them have an advantage.
The basic conclusion is that among China's 148 GICS Level 4 industries, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate 40% of the industries and non-state-owned enterprises (NGEs) dominate 60% of the industries.
2.The distribution of the national coefficient of enterprises above designated size in China's industrial industry.
In the national standard (GB) classification of the national economy, the three categories of mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production are classified into the general industrial category, including 41 categories, and then divided into 207 medium categories and 666 sub-categories.
At present, 67 of the 158 fourth-level industries in the Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) can be compared to the industrial categories, which are between the large and medium categories of the national standard (GB). Similarly, we take the data of enterprises above designated size and listed companies from the National Bureau of Statistics, consider the comprehensive proportion of input and output, and comprehensively calculate the coefficient of state-owned enterprises in each industrial industry, and vice versa, the coefficient of private enterprises.
Among the 41 industrial classifications of GB, since there are no corresponding statistics for other mining industries to exclude them, we calculated and analyzed the state-owned enterprise coefficients of 40 major industrial industries. We divide the proportion of state-owned enterprises in the industry into four categories:
Category A: Industries with a coefficient higher than 50% of state-owned enterprises, with an average coefficient of 674%；
Category B: Industries with a coefficient of 25%-50% for state-owned enterprises, with an average coefficient of 397%；
Category C: Industries with a coefficient of state-owned enterprises accounting for between 10% and 25%, with an average coefficient of 145%；
Category D: Industries with a coefficient of less than 10% of state-owned enterprises, with an average coefficient of 50%。
There are 10 Class A industries, namely: electric power, heat production and industry, oil and gas extraction industry, water production and industry, coal mining and washing industry, tobacco products industry, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, mining professional and auxiliary activities, gas production and industry, non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry, wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry.
There are 10 Class B industries, namely: ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, other manufacturing industry, ferrous metal mining and dressing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, metal products, machinery and equipment repair industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral mining and dressing industry.
There are 12 Class C industries, namely: general equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, comprehensive utilization of waste resources, chemical fiber manufacturing, instrument manufacturing, paper and paper products industry, metal products industry, cultural, educational, art, sports and recreational goods manufacturing, food manufacturing, and textile industry.
There are 8 Category D industries, namely: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, printing and recording media reproduction industry, rubber and plastic products industry, textile and garment industry, clothing industry, furniture manufacturing industry, leather, fur, feather and their products and footwear industry, wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm and grass products industry.
The average coefficient of state-owned enterprises in the four types of industries.
According to the above analysis, among the 40 industrial categories classified by GB, state-owned enterprises account for 67 of the 10 industries in Class A4% dominance;Among the 10 industries in Class B, private enterprises account for 603% dominance;Among the 12 industries in category C, private enterprises account for 855% dominance;Among the eight industries in Category D, private enterprises occupy a dominant position of 95%.
Obviously, we must unswervingly support the development of state-owned enterprises in Class A industries, and unswervingly support the development of private enterprises in Class D industries.
What should be further studied is whether there are industries in Class B and Class C industries that need to raise the coefficient of state-owned enterprises, or whether there are industries in the medium-sized industries under the category that need to increase the coefficient of state-owned enterprises. We need to further study and subdivide to determine the reasonable proportion and industrial status of state-owned enterprises, and formulate an international and domestic industrial classification system suitable for industrial development.
4. Reflection and discussion.
1.The basic feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics lies in the socialist market economic system under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Under the macroeconomic regulation and control, we should give full play to the power of market resource allocation and promote economic development. Here, "market economy" is the key word, and the market economy mainly relies on the market to effectively allocate resources, and uses the "invisible hand" to allocate social resources. The main body in the market economy is mainly market-oriented enterprises, and only market-oriented enterprises can accept the "invisible hand" dispatch, while the enterprises with a higher degree of marketization are mainly non-state-owned enterprises.
2.Current data suggestsIn the national economy, especially in the total economic output of developed regions, state-owned enterprises no longer occupy the dominant position. However, in many countries' important strategic industries, state-owned enterprises occupy a dominant position. Theoretically, it is necessary to further clarify the definition of "public ownership as the main body," and the key lies in what is a public enterprise.
Central enterprises and all kinds of local state-owned enterprises are public-owned enterprises, and traditional collective-owned enterprises are considered to be public-owned enterprises regardless of their sizeIs an all-owned enterprise like Huawei also a way to realize a public-owned enterprise?
For example, in the preface to my book in 1997, Professor Li Yining pointed out: "In a socialist society, joint-stock enterprises are ...... of public ownershipEven joint-stock enterprises that are employee-owned and publicly owned are also publicly owned. ”
3.The two unwavering policies must have macro monitoring and regulation scope indicators. The current distribution of national coefficients is the result of the gradual evolution of China's reform and opening up over the past 40 years, and is generally reasonable. It is not worth mentioning the theory of the exit of the private economy, but for some vague statements, it should be clarified.
The general secretary has repeatedly emphasized that private enterprises are "their own people". Under the two unwavering guidelines, it does not mean that the higher the proportion of state-owned enterprises, the better, at present, the national coefficient of China's most developed regions is 28 distribution, developed areas are 37 distribution, medium areas are 46 distribution, and developing areas are 55 distribution. The national average is four or six. In the future, the national coefficient of the whole country should develop towards the distribution of notoginseng.
It should be noted that among the enterprises "below the scale" (with a revenue of less than 20 million yuan) in the national economy, the vast majority are private enterprises, and the actual proportion of private enterprises will be higher than the statistics.
4.In every industry, there should also be macroeconomic monitoring and regulation indicators for the national coefficient, and in some important strategic industries in the country, state-owned enterprises should occupy an absolute dominant position. In some industries, the market should be given full play to its role in resource allocation, and non-state-owned enterprises should be allowed to compete fully. In some industries, dynamic policy regulation should be carried out according to different domestic and foreign situations. For example, at present, industrial policy support is provided for some "stuck neck" industries and "stuck neck" links in the industrial chain.
5.There is no doubt about the importance of state-owned enterprises, but the main aspect of the contradiction at the present stage is to unswervingly support and develop the development of the private economy. It is necessary to boost the confidence of the vast number of private entrepreneurs, make the market more vigorous, let the economy grow steadily, and make employment more sufficient. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are the most important weapon of the country, the ballast stone and stabilizer of China's economy, and play a leading role in the country's important strategic industries. Private enterprises are the source of China's economy, the foundation of the vitality of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, and the main force of market-oriented resource allocation and social employment. The two complement each other and are indispensable.
Notes:The first is the data of listed companies, and the second is the statistical data of industrial enterprises above designated size of the National Bureau of Statistics, including regional data, industrial data, private enterprises and foreign enterprise data. First of all, based on the global industry classification standard GICS, we use the market capitalization, revenue, and profit ratio of state-owned enterprises (** state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and collective enterprises) among all 6,771 listed companies in China. 25, weighted to calculate the proportion of state-owned enterprises, to analyze the proportion of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises in various industries.
Secondly, we use the statistical data of industrial enterprises above designated size from the National Bureau of Statistics, and then revise them with the data of listed companies, select total assets and net assets as input factors, and select revenue and profit as output factors.
In the specific calculation, the revenue accounts for 06. Weight, profit accounts for 04. The output coefficient is calculated by weight, and the total assets account for 06. Weight, net assets account for 04. The weight is calculated to calculate the input coefficient, and then the input factor accounts for 04. Weight, output factors account for 06 weights to form the data of the Bureau of Statistics.
Finally, the data of the Bureau of Statistics accounts for two-thirds of the weight, and the data of listed companies account for one-third of the weight, and the final coefficient of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises is obtained. In the calculation of the coefficient of foreign enterprises and private enterprises in the data of non-state-owned enterprises in provinces and regions, only the data of the National Bureau of Statistics are used. In order to ensure the unification of the classification of listed companies and the industrial classification of the Bureau of Statistics, we have classified 6,771 Chinese listed companies into 90 categories under the Industrial Classification of the National Economy (GB) based on the principle of proportion of main business.