Tsai Ing-wenRunning for the leadership of the Taiwan region again, the polls on the closure of customs are about to come to an end. A closed poll is when polling companies stop releasing poll data after midnight the night before Election Day. At present, five or six polling companies in Taiwan have released a large number of poll data, and some polls show thatLai QingdeThe team that worked with Ms. Hsiao, Lai Hsiao-pai, has opened up a nearly 11-point lead, while a number of other polls show that gap has narrowed to within 5 percentage points. However, when analyzing the results of these polls, factors such as sample selection, questionnaire design, and statistical methods need to be considered, so the accuracy of polls has certain limitations.
The results of the recently released poll show three main trends. First of all, Hou YouyiheZhao ShaokangThe results of the polls have so far failed to surpass that of "Lai Xiaopei". Secondly, Ke Wenzhe's polls fluctuated greatly, and Hou Youyi was peacefulZhao ShaokangThe results of the poll had an impact. Third,Lai QingdeHe has been in the lead in the polls, which shows that he has a higher chance of winning in the current Taiwan "**". Polls can reflect the fluctuations of the election, but they are not accurate. The outcome of the election campaign is a complex collective behavior of the crowd, including many factors that cannot be polled. For example, in the 2000 and 2004 elections, no one expected itwould have won, but he won in the end. Therefore, polls can only provide a reference for the election situation, but cannot determine the outcome of the election.
In Taiwan's elections, there are five major systems that can influence the outcome of the election. The first is the Gongmiao system, which allows them to derive the outcome of the vote based on their own vote evaluation operations. The second is the intelligence system, but this system is often subject to political interference, so the results may not be accurate. The third is the party affairs system, which uses rolling poll data to determine the trend of winning and losing. The fourth is the policing system, who are able to estimate the number of votes in each district. The fifth is the so-called "Squidward", who is able to win or lose in key areas. However, these five systems do not form a unified result, so there is a certain error in the analysis of the polling firms. Their judgment of the situation of the election campaign and the outcome of the election in a particular region is often inaccurate.
I personally have some experience and insight in the elections. For example, in the 2019 election, the KMT almost won, it is widely believedHan Kuo-yuwill win. However, when I went to the countryside to investigate, I found that something was not right. Han Kuo-yuThere is a lot of momentum in urban areas, but his support at the grassroots level is not strong. He would have lost 1.2 million votes and almost no one believed me at the time. In the end, he lost more than expected, losing more than 2.5 million votes. This was the first time I had done my own vote estimation and the results were surprisingly accurate. A similar situation occurred in the 2022 county and mayoral elections, and I found that the election situation was different from ***'s statement through field observations. By integrating my personal experience and observations, I guessed and accurately judged the election situation of the entire county and city.
Therefore, I think that in the current "**" in Taiwan, if the KMT cannot expand its popular base, find new supporters, and put forward attractive slogans, it is very likely that they will fail by a narrow margin. The final outcome of an election depends on complex and variable factors, including the image of the candidates, their policy advocacy, and voters' attitudes and decisions. Polls can only provide a certain level of reference and **, but cannot determine the outcome of an election. Therefore, in elections, candidates and campaign teams need to pay close attention to the dynamics and needs of voters, and flexibly adjust their strategies to win more support and votes. Only in this way can we succeed in this fierce election campaign.
In short, the results of the closure poll are presentLai Qingdeand Xiao Meiqin's cooperation team "Lai Xiao Pei" is currently leading. However, the results of the polls are only indicative, and the outcome of the election campaign depends on many complex and variable factors. And my personal observation and judgment experience show that polls are not necessarily accurate** election results. Therefore, candidates and campaign teams need to flexibly adjust their strategies according to the current voter dynamics and needs in order to win more support and votes, and ultimately win the election.