The Bank of China Research Institute released the "China Economic and Financial Outlook Report (2024)" on the 12th, which predicts that China's GDP will grow by 5 in the fourth quarterAround 6%, with an annual growth of 5About 3%, which is higher than the expected target of about 5% for the whole year. Looking forward to 2024, the external environment may improve, the effect of the steady growth policy will continue to appear, domestic demand is expected to continue to repair, and China's economy will return to the potential growth rate driven by policy efforts and the market. GDP growth is expected to be around 5% in 2024.
In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 52%, the growth rate rose 2 from the same period last year2 percentage points.
The report points out that from the perspective of the "troika" that drives economic growth, consumption is undoubtedly the biggest bright spot in 2023. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6% year-on-year9%, a significant increase of 63 percentage points. In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 83 percent to economic growth2%, driving GDP growth by 44 percentage points, which is not only higher than the level during the epidemic, but also higher than the pre-epidemic level. This is mainly due to the concentrated release of the backlog of consumer demand in the early stage, and the superposition of supply optimization and business upgrading to stimulate potential consumer demand.
The report pointed out that China's service consumption grew faster than physical consumption this year. From January to October, retail sales of services increased by 19% year-on-year, significantly higher than retail sales of goods by 56% growth. Tourism, catering, entertainment and other sectors performed strongly. Since 2023, the number of tourists and income during public holidays have rebounded significantly, among which the per capita tourism income during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has recovered to the level of the same period before the epidemic.
The report predicts that China's consumption is expected to continue to recover in 2024 and continue to play the role of "ballast stone" for economic growth. In 2024, China's residents' income and expectations are expected to continue to improve, laying a good foundation for consumption growth. In the context of China's sustained economic recovery, residents' income and consumption tendency have shown signs of improvement. In the first three quarters of 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents increased by 59%, higher than the GDP growth rate of 52%, reversing the previous situation that the growth rate of residents' income was slower than the economic growth rate;Household propensity to consume (consumption expenditure as a percentage of disposable income) was 69 in the third quarter8%, which is not only better than the same period during the epidemic, but also better than the same period before the epidemic. In the future, as the endogenous driving force of economic growth is further strengthened, residents' consumption ability and willingness are expected to continue to improve, and consumption growth will gradually converge to the pre-epidemic level.
The report suggests that China should combine short-term steady growth with medium- and long-term reform to ensure sustained and stable economic growth. In an international environment where uncertainty persists, efforts should be made to create a stable, harmonious and favorable external development environmentGive full play to the role of active fiscal policy, promote the continuous recovery of domestic demand, boost market confidence, and stabilize market expectations;Adhere to the direction of market-oriented reform, handle the relationship between the market and the market, better stimulate the vitality of business entities, and enhance the endogenous growth momentum of the economy.
Xinhua Finance client).