Finance Associated Press, January 10 (edited by Niu Zhanlin).The World Bank warned on Tuesday (January 9) that global economic growth will slow for the third consecutive year in 2024, and poverty and debt levels in many developing countries will continue to worsen.
The World Bank expects global GDP growth to be 24%, compared to 2.023 global GDP growth6% compared to 3 in 20220%；In addition, the World Bank has revised down global GDP growth** from 3% to 2% in 20257%。
The first five years of the 20s look set to be the worst in 30 years, affected by the pandemic, geopolitical tensions and the ensuing surge in global inflation and interest rates, the report said.
In the face of dismal expectations, Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist of the World Bank, said that even the 2008 financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis in the 90s and the economic downturn at the beginning of this century were much higher than in recent years.
Kose added that excluding the special year of 2020 (during the pandemic), this year's economic growth will be the weakest since the global financial crisis.
In addition, as the escalating geopolitical crisis hampers economic activity, the World Bank estimates that the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 now appears largely out of reach.
Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, said in a statement: "Without major adjustments, the '20s will be seen as a decade of wasted opportunities. ”
Gill claims that economic growth will remain weak in the short term, leaving many developing countries, especially the poorest, in dire straits, with unacceptably high debt levels and almost one in three struggling to access food.
Increase investment
In developed countries, the World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow by 1. in 2024 due to reduced savings and restrictive monetary policies that dampen economic activity6%, but that's double the estimate in June last year.
The outlook for the eurozone is bleaker, with growth expected to be 07%, as high energy** led to an increase of only 04%。
As a whole, emerging markets and developing countries are expected to grow by 39%, down from 40%。That's not enough to lift growing people out of poverty, and the World Bank says that by the end of 2024, about a quarter of people in developing countries and 40 percent of low-income countries will be poorer than they were before the pandemic hit in 2019.
The World Bank says that as a way to boost economic growth, especially in emerging markets and developing countries, it will take 2$4 trillion in investments to accelerate the clean energy transition and climate change adaptation.
According to Kose, the investment boom has the potential to transform developing economies and help them accelerate their energy transition and achieve their development goals. "To spur such prosperity, developing economies need to implement comprehensive policy programs that improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border** and financial flows, and improve investment climates. It's a tough job, but many developing economies have been able to do it before. ”
For commodity exporters, the World Bank recommends that they adopt a "countercyclical investment strategy," in which fiscal policy can be relatively conservative during boom times and invest more in times of recession, so as to avoid extreme boom-bust cycles.
Finance Associated Press Niu Zhanlin).