After investing in the secondary market for more than 10 years, it is very fortunate for us investors to find a company that continues to grow. Chang Meng main investment
In fact, in essence, I personally think that the pharmaceutical industry, it has the following characteristics:
1.The pharmaceutical industry is the birthplace of growth stocks forever
Essentially, the pharmaceutical industry is an industry closely related to life sciences, and as such, it does not have a maturity period, it is an industry that grows and develops forever.
In the world, the development rate of the pharmaceutical industry is generally higher than that of other industries, and it is less affected by the economic crisis, and occupies an important position in the world economy.
From a country's perspective, because pharmaceutical products have a high demand income elasticity (it is estimated that the demand income elasticity of health care products is 137%, that is, for every 100 yuan increase in income, the level of medical consumption will increase by 137 yuan), therefore, when the national economy is good, personal income growth will drive the increase in personal drug demand.
But in the opposite case, due to the low elasticity of demand for drugs**, there will be no significant reduction in demand for drugs, which is especially evident in times of economic downturn.
According to international experience, because the pharmaceutical industry is less affected by macro fundamentals, the market performance of listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is generally better than that of other industries when the national economy is in a recession cycle.
Is this kind of industry our dream investment object?It's better when it's good, it's not bad when it's bad, and it grows faster as revenue increases!
Combined with the current situation of China's economic development and income growth, the pharmaceutical industry is one of the best choices for investment.
2.The industry has very high profit margins
The current data on the pharmaceutical industry show that the operating profit margin of some of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies is quite high, with an average of 22, while the profit margin of the general industry is quite high if the profit margin of 10 is quite high.
Among the top 10 companies in the pharmaceutical industry in terms of operating profit margin, the lowest is more than 15, and the highest is nearly 40. This kind of operating profit margin is staggering in the manufacturing industry.
3.High technicality
The pharmaceutical industry is a high-tech industry. Modern science and methods, including biotechnology, have been and will be widely used in the pharmaceutical industry.
For example, in terms of pharmaceutical dosage forms, a large number of patent documents have emerged for transdermal controlled-release preparations, new compound preparations, drug release devices and new processes for preparation equipment, and new dosage forms have greatly improved drug efficacy.
In terms of drug development, chemical pharmaceuticals still dominate, but with the development of modern biotechnology, the research, development and production of biological drugs will be the focus of the pharmaceutical industry in the 90s.
In terms of medical devices, as an interdisciplinary and comprehensive high-tech industry, the industry is closely related to computer science, image processing, precision instruments, radiology science and human science.
4.High growth
From the perspective of pharmaceutical demand prospects, at present, China's per capita drug level is far from that of developed countries.
With the natural growth of China's population, the increase in the proportion of aging, the sustained growth of the national economy, the reform of the medical system and the implementation of drug classification management, China's pharmaceutical industry will continue to grow at a high rate of more than 20%.
5.High engagement
The high investment of the pharmaceutical industry is more obvious in new drugs than in general drugs. In general, general medicine has the characteristics of simple production process, low input, low product technology content and large market demand.
The development and production of new drugs require a large amount of investment, and the production process is complex and the development period is long.
Usually it costs an average of 2500 million US dollars, some as high as 1 billion US dollars, it takes 10 years from screening to clinical trials.
Some well-known foreign pharmaceutical companies attach great importance to the development of new drug products, and do not hesitate to spend huge sums of money to develop new drugs to improve the competitiveness of products.
Their investment in technology generally reaches more than 15% of their total product sales, and the Swiss company Roche is as high as 236%, and the share of scientific and technological investment of medical device companies is also more than 12%.
Scientific and technological investment and scientific and technological progress has become the "nuclear power" of the development of the pharmaceutical economy, because China has a late-mover advantage, many products are imitated from foreign countries, then the investment in research and development is far less than that of foreign enterprises, and the risk is significantly reduced.
6.High risk
The operating performance of pharmaceutical companies is very different and prone to fluctuations. Due to the strong specificity of drugs, the market space is mainly determined by its performance, and drugs with high technical content and good performance often have a very broad market and generous performance, and the enterprises that develop such drugs can achieve high profits.
On the contrary, for drugs with average performance, even if the market size declines, it will not increase the market size, and once the volume increases, it means a rapid decline in corporate efficiency.
Because the best-selling cycle of a drug is generally only 3-5 years, many pharmaceutical companies rely on.
The risks of one or two products can be imagined, even if they are some large international companiesIts performance is also often subject to large fluctuations.
The high risk of the pharmaceutical industry is also very obvious, mainly in the following ways:
a. Once a new drug is found to have serious or limited efficacy improvement in clinical or marketing time, it will be quickly canceled or eliminated by the marketThe resulting damage is irreparable.
b. The monopoly of patented new drugs is limited and temporary. Due to the wide range of drug types, no matter how much an enterprise does its best, it can only monopolize a certain patented new drug market, but it is impossible to monopolize the entire pharmaceutical market or even a certain type of drug market.
And because patents are time-sensitive, this monopoly is temporary, and once the term of patent protection is unfrozen, the competitive advantage will decline rapidly. With the continuous upgrading of pharmaceutical technology, the drug market is also constantly updated and innovated, and any new drug in the market at any time has the risk of replacing new drugs with better efficacy, similar functions and similar quality.
7.High barriers to market entry
Since pharmaceutical products are closely related to human health and safety, all countries in the world without exception have adopted strict laws to regulate and manage the production, management, sales and import of drugs.
It is difficult for drugs and companies that have not been certified by hierarchical norms to enter the drug market. At the same time, the high-tech, high-risk, and high-investment technology capital-intensive characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry also make it more difficult for new companies to enter.
In China's pharmaceutical industry policy, a number of provisions have also been made for market entry, and a franchise system has been set up for the production and operation of certain medicines, such as toxic drugs, first-class products, psychotropic drugs, drug precursors, radioactive drugs, and family planning drugs that are uniformly designated and licensed by the state, and are licensed and operated by the state in accordance with the lawAt the same time, it is also stipulated that foreign capital cannot participate in the operation of domestic pharmaceutical wholesale and retail trade for the time being.
[Precautions for investment in pharmaceutical stocks].
Due to the technical and professional nature of the pharmaceutical industry, if you want to invest in this industry, you must have an industry background, otherwise it is difficult to invest successfully, and you should also pay attention to the following matters:
1.Enterprises with a high proportion of revenue from a single product should pay full attention to the fact that an enterprise is like a person, it is impossible to walk on one leg, even if it can occasionally jump a few times on one leg, it is impossible to jump far away;
2.To find a company with sufficient backup products, investment is a long-term process, if the company wants to continue to develop strong, there must be one or two best-selling products now, and there are two or three about to be approved, three or five are in the clinical stage, and a large number of studies are in the experiment;
3.It would be a very dangerous phenomenon not to be able to buy companies whose main income comes from products whose patents are about to expire, and if the revenue of a product accounts for the vast majority of the company, and the patent of this product is about to expire, the impact on the enterprise will be fatal;
4.Enterprises in subdivided fields, only select the top three enterprises in the industry, of course, if the top ones are state-owned enterprises, then they can be ranked at the bottom;
5.The premise of all this is that you must understand the industry of the enterprise, not beyond the scope of your understanding, the sales model of the enterprise, the product characteristics must have a full understanding, otherwise a misstep will become a thousand hatreds.