Tianfeng Co., Ltd. Zhang Zhangzhang recently conducted research on Yankuang Energy and released a research report "Layout of Coal-to-Olefins, Business Transformation and Sustainable Development", this report gives a ** rating to Yankuang Energy, and the current stock price is 2067 yuan.
Yankuang Energy (600188).
Shanneng Group injected Luxi Mining and Xinjiang Nenghua into the company.
The company announced on April 29, 2023 that it ended with 264The price of 3.1 billion yuan acquired 51% of the shares of Luxi Mining and 51% of the shares of Xinjiang Nenghua, of which Xinjiang Nenghua has rich coal resources in Xinjiang, with a total resource of 2301.5 billion tonnes with recoverable reserves of 1526.6 billion tons, of which the total resource of the five coal mines in production is 561.7 billion tonnes with recoverable reserves of 311.6 billion tonnes with a total resource of about 173 million tonnes across the twelve prospects9.8 billion tons, recoverable reserves of 121500 million tons.
Xinjiang is an area that is more important in the development plan of Shanneng Group.
In recent years, Shandong Energy Group has seized the opportunity of mergers and acquisitions in the coal industry, and through the reorganization of its subsidiaries, it has been integrated into four regional companies, namely Luxi Mining, Northwest Mining, Xinjiang Nenghua and Xinkuang Inner Mongolia Energy.
Since 2004, it has laid out five major chemical industry bases, including Lunan in Shandong, Yulin in Shaanxi, Kaiyang in Guizhou, Urumqi in Xinjiang and Ordos in Inner Mongolia.
From the perspective of resource misallocation and shortage of transportation capacity, we can see the rationality of the development of Xinjiang's coal chemical industry.
Through the analysis of production load and accident rate, we believe that there is a possibility of intensification of the coal supply shortage in Shanxi. There is a possibility of increasing production in Xinjiang, but due to the limited export capacity, it is difficult for Xinjiang's coal export volume to increase significantly in the short term. Therefore, digesting raw coal locally in Xinjiang and transporting it in the form of coal chemical products may alleviate the problems of resource misallocation and shortage of transportation capacity.
The endowment of coal resources has laid the advantages of Xinjiang's coal chemical industry.
With the support of policies, and benefiting from the excellent quality, good storage conditions and low mining cost of coal in Xinjiang, it is a high-quality raw material for the modern coal chemical industry, attracting many large enterprises to deploy in Xinjiang and invest in the development and construction of coal, coal power and coal chemical projects.
According to the data disclosed in the EIA of Xinjiang Shanneng Chemical Company, the amount of raw coal used in the base year was 390210,000 tons per year, equivalent to 4 units of olefins88 tons of coal and tons of olefins, which is significantly lower than the 5 representative enterprises of coal-to-olefinsThe average unit consumption level of 3 tons.
Profitability** and valuation: Maintain the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025**195 205 22.4 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value PE of 7 on December 1, 202391/7.51/6.85 times, maintaining the "** rating."
Risk warning: coal production capacity exceeds expected growth; Overseas energy demand is lower than expected; Hydropower power exceeds expectations; Economic growth has fallen short of expectations.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Huatai ** Wang Shuai has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 8517%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 2265.6 billion, the **pe converted according to the current price is 679。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 15 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, **15 ratings; The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 2315。
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