Introduction
December 15th,The National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to November 2023, real estate development investment, commercial housing sales, real estate enterprise capital in place, etcA number of core indicators showed "warmth"., among othersThe decline in real estate development investment and commercial housing sales narrowed significantly, and the capital of real estate enterprises has shown a warming momentum. On the evening of December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively issued policies to optimize the identification standards for ordinary houses, reduce the down payment ratio, and lower the lower limit of mortgage interest rates.
In the eyes of industry insiders, the market sentiment is sluggish, resulting in a relatively long time at the bottom of this round of adjustment, and the real estate market as a whole is still in the bottoming stage. However, with the new policy adjustment, it will bring greater imagination to the market, and its "stimulus effect" is worth looking forward to.
Under the frequent policies and good expectations, the amount and area of commercial housing sales have improved marginally, and the decline has continued to narrow. According to the weekly data of Zhuge Data Research Center, as of December to 10, 22,793 new commercial residential units were traded in 15 key cities, a slight decrease of 02%。In the second half of the month, driven by the loosening of the northbound policy, the market is expected to improve, the market activity will increase in the second half of the month, and the transaction level of the whole month is expected to reach the transaction level of September.
On the evening of December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively issued policies to optimize the identification standards for ordinary houses, reduce the down payment ratio, and lower the lower limit of mortgage interest rates.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that optimizing the identification standards for ordinary houses, reducing the proportion of down payments, and reducing mortgage interest rates have greatly reduced the threshold for residents to buy homes and the cost of buying houses, which is conducive to the release of demand for rigid and improved housingAfter the policy is greatly optimized, it is expected that the activity of the Beijing and Shanghai markets will increase significantly, and then stabilize the first expectations
The expected improvement in the Beijing and Shanghai markets may further boost overall market confidence and promote the national market to accelerate bottoming and stabilization. At the end of 2023, with favorable policies and enterprises increasing marketing efforts, the scale of new home sales is expected to show a slight taillift
The data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to November 2023 are as follows:
Detailed data
1. Completion of real estate development investment.
From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%；Among them, residential investment was 7,885.2 billion yuan, down by 90%。。
From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 831345 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 72%。Among them, the residential construction area was 585309 million square meters, a decrease of 76%。The area of new housing construction was 874.56 million square meters, a decrease of 212%。Among them, the area of new residential construction was 637.37 million square meters, a decrease of 215%。The area of housing completions was 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 179%。Among them, the area of residential completions was 475.81 million square meters, an increase of 185%。
2. Commodity housing sales and for sale.
From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 73%。The sales of commercial buildings 105318 billion yuan, down 52%, of which residential sales fell 43%。
At the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was 653.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 180%。Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 204%。
3. Funds in place for real estate development enterprises.
From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises 117044 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 134%。Among them, domestic loans were 1,422.7 billion yuan, down by 98%；The utilization of foreign capital was 4.2 billion yuan, down by 351%；self-raised funds were 3,850.5 billion yuan, down 20.0 million3%；deposits and advance receipts were 3,958.3 billion yuan, down by 109%；personal mortgage loans were 1,998.2 billion yuan, down by 81%。
Fourth, the real estate development prosperity index.
In November, the real estate development prosperity index (hereinafter referred to as the "national housing prosperity index") was 9342。
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