Old netizens who pay attention to current affairs in the Taiwan Strait should remember that at this time four years ago, a jaw-dropping thing happened, that is, Kuomintang candidate Han Kuo-yu shouted more than a month before the election that "Han fans expressed 'the only support for Tsai Ing-wen' when they received the poll **, but they will vote for Han Kuo-yu on the day of the poll", which was later called "poll cover";In the vernacular of the mainland, the polls are sealed, so that you can't measure the "real public opinion".
The background of Han Kuo-yu's proposal of the "poll cover" is that in the polls released by a number of ** or pollsters before this, Han Kuo-yu's support generally lagged behind Tsai Ing-wen. However, Han Kuo-yu's camp is skeptical about the validity of the polls and considers them "fake polls."
In Han Kuo-yu's words at the time, fake polls were fraudulent practices that would undermine the confidence of Han Kuo-yu's supporters, so he reversed the operationAnd think that this strategy is like "scrapping *** hand".
The reason given by Han Kuo-yu seems to be "very convincing", saying that he won 100 times in the polls when he was elected mayor of Kaohsiung, and he still won in the end. So these polls are all "fake polls" and cannot be trusted.
But Han Kuo-yu is only "stealing the concept", because he is quoting all the polls in the "early stage" of the 2017 Kaohsiung mayoral election, which is indeed behind Chen Qimai;In the "late stage" of the mayoral election, Han's polls and favorability have surpassed that of his opponents.
Facts have proven that Han Kuo-yu's "poll covering" is only self-deception, and not only has it not saved the declining trend, but has also affected the election of legislators. At that time, many incumbent Kuomintang legislators were in a situation of "poll reversal" and were unable to face up to the changes in the election situation, and many believed that they were affected by the "poll covering". The actual winner loses because his election strategy cannot keep pace with changes in the structural environment.
It was later proved that many poll figures at that time were true, and Han Kuo-yu did lag behind Tsai Ing-wen, and fell behind by a large margin.
Chen Xuesheng, a key player in Han Yu's camp, later said that the polls at that time were obviously lagging behind, and if this continued, there would be no need to fight this battle, and the morale would not be able to rise up when the polls were backward, so he would use the "fold" strategy to make everyone blind and dark. As for the real polls, I'm afraid only Han Kuo-yu knows.
Each camp would conduct internal polls, and even if Han Kuo-yu knew about it, he was probably reluctant to admit the fact that he was lagging behind. Because during the election process, Han Kuo-yu's momentum was very powerful, but Tsai Ing-wen's field seemed to be very cold, causing the South Korean camp to declare that "the poll is cold and the people's hearts are hot."
It is true that people's hearts are hot, but that is limited to the two or three million Korean fans, who seem to be "hot" on every occasion of the campaign, but they are all warmed in the stratosphere, and the votes cannot be spread enough for Han Kuo-yu to be elected.
Having said so much about the past, it is nothing more than a reminder to everyone to look at the problem realistically and not to come up with a "fake poll" at every turn. Taiwan's polls have obvious institutional effects, but most of my polls are electoral tests and can be referred to.
Another point that I have repeatedly emphasized is that "when you look at the polls, you look at the trend". If there are 10 polls in the same period, and 8 of them have the same results, it is basically a reaction of real public opinion.
The current trend is that Lai Xiaopei is steadily leading and rushing to 40%;Hou Zhao surpassed Ke Wu, but he still couldn't catch up with Lai Xiao.