Another big move!There is no suspense about the direction of real estate in 2024

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-29

Finally, the housing purchase policies of Beijing and Shanghai, two super first-tier cities, have ushered in a significant relaxation!

Just yesterday (December 14), the two cities with the strongest housing purchase policies among the first-tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai, introduced new policies for housing purchases on the same day.

Beijing's five major departments jointly issued a notice to optimize the current housing purchase policy, including:

The down payment ratio for the first home is uniformly reduced to 30%;

The minimum down payment for a second home is 40%;

City 6 and non-city 6 districtsThe lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan is adjusted to 43% and 42%。At the same time, the maximum term of the loan is alsoFrom 25 years to 30 years

Shanghai also ushered in a double drop, reducing down payments and interest rates at the same time.

The down payment ratio for the first home is uniformly reduced to 30%;

The down payment ratio for second homes is uniformly reduced to 50%;

The interest rate on the loan for the first home and the second home was reduced to 4 respectively1% and 45%。

In addition, both Beijing and Shanghai have made significant adjustments to the criteria for identifying ordinary residences.

Area cap increased from 140 to 144;

If it is not a common house, the total transaction price will no longer be seen;

Shanghai has directly eliminated the ** index, and although Beijing has retained the criteria for determining the transaction price, the upper limit has also been significantly increased compared with before.

According to **, after the implementation of the new standard, the commercial housing that can be recognized as ordinary residential in the Beijing market will be increased from about 30% in the past to about 70%.

A large number of second-hand homes will no longer need to pay the mansion tax, which greatly reduces the transaction cost of changing houses.

This time, the relaxation of the housing purchase policy in Beijing and Shanghai, the two core cities, followed the tone of the ** economic work conference, and chose to release it on the same day, which is a very strong signal to the market.

The blockbuster meeting sets the tonePolicies will be more active next yearIn fact, this kind of situation where high-energy cities gather to introduce favorable policies is a bit familiar.

In the middle of this year, after the Politburo meeting on July 24 put forward the tone of "major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market". Two days later, on July 27, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed the ...... of "reducing the down payment", "reducing the interest rate", "recognizing the house but not the loan", and "reducing taxes and fees".and other packages of real estate bailouts.

And a month later, a large wave of favorable policies have been implemented one after another, and there has been a wave of lifting purchase restrictions in core cities.

And this time, it was also two blockbuster meetings that set the tone.

First of all, at the Politburo meeting held on 9 December, the expression of "seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking down" was proposed.

Two days later, at the ** economic work conference held on December 11-12, when setting the tone for next year's economic work, these three basic orientations were once again emphasized.

Compared with the economic work conference at the end of last year, and the two ** Politburo meetings with the theme of economic work in April and July this year, the expression this time has shifted from "stability first" and "seeking progress while maintaining stability".Promote stability with progressThe expression is obviously put "in".Higher priority

The development of the real estate industry is the most important winner next year.

In order to achieve "promoting stability through progress", it is necessary to continue to introduce vigorous policies in the real estate industry until the industry returns to stability.

And "first stand and then break", what is it to stand up?Break what?

In fact, the main line of the real estate industry in the past two years has always been the problem of establishment and breaking.

First of all, what should be "established" must be a new model of real estate.

In the residential field, it is actually the dual-track housing system, that is, the new housing reform that is boiling this year.

To deepen the structural reform of the housing supply side, the focus is on three types of projects: affordable housing, urban village transformation and"Dual-use".Public infrastructure.

What needs to be "broken" is the old model of "high turnover, high debt, and high leverage" development in the incremental era. Starting from the "three red lines", this has always been the goal of policy regulation.

However, the key orientation now is to establish first and then break.

In other words, when the new model has not yet formed new momentum, the old model will continue to play a role.

First of all, it is necessary to protect the real estate enterprises.

As early as November, the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly convened a symposium on financial institutions, which has put forward three "no less than three mortgages" related to real estate loans, requiring financial institutions to give quantitative financing transfusions to real estate enterprises.

The day before yesterday (December 13), at the annual meeting of China's economy, the vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that he would support real estate companies with a tight capital chain to solve the problem of short-term cash flow.

Recently, some real estate companies are no longer restricted by the "three red lines" in the process of new financing.

For real estate companies with tight capital chains, especially private real estate companies, the support will likely continue next year.

Secondly, it is necessary to ensure sales

In particular, we must do our best to release the rigid demand and improve the demand.

Previously, there has been a large-scale wave of deregulation in core cities. Recently, many cities have been implementing trade-in policies.

Developers or first-class institutions encourage and help residents with existing housing to sell for new ones through acquisition, replacement, subsidies, etc. Unleash the "room ticket" and funds to improve.

The simultaneous relaxation of housing purchase policies in Beijing and Shanghai this time may mean the beginning of a new wave of property market boost. If the policy does not have an obvious effect on the market, it cannot be ruled out that there will be more stimulus policies next year.

Third, it will be adopted next yearAffordable housing, urban village transformation, and "peacetime and emergency" facilitiesThree major projects, stabilize investment and tap demand.

This is also a key part of the transformation of old and new kinetic energy.

On the one hand, these projects can directly drive the increase in investment. On the other hand, it can also release demand through the collection and storage of affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages.

Circular No. 14 clearly mentions that it is possible to make full use of the approved unbuilt land recovered in accordance with the law, the bankruptcy disposal of commercial housing and land by real estate enterprises, and idle housing to expand land and increase the supply of affordable housing.

For cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, it is also possible to appropriately renovate or acquire the stock of commercial housing for affordable housing.

That is to say, the purchase of second-hand houses and idle new houses through the issuance of bonds can directly adjust the supply and demand relationship in the market. It is also possible to carry out the transformation of urban villages in megacities and explore more demand through the transformation of urban villages in megacities.

In general, the direction and goals of next year's policy are very clear. Towards the end of the year, the market has also begun to show some subtle reactions.

At the end of the year, the king of the land reappeared

Market confidence is starting to gradually recover

At present, major real estate companies and institutions have basically formed a consensus, that is, the current industry hasSignificantly over-fallingFinish. More and more home buyers and real estate companies have gradually begun to take the initiative to adjust their expectations.

First of all, the market is exchanging price for volume, and the volume begins to rise.

In November, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Guangzhou exceeded 10,000 units, the second highest monthly transaction volume in the whole year, an increase of 877%。Shenzhen, as the deepest city among the first-tier cities, has also rebounded in the transaction volume of second-hand houses, with a month-on-month increase of 158%, second only to March.

Data**: Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association.

Under the continuous bottoming out and the policy stimulus of September and October, at present, the trading volume of some cities that have overadjusted the volume has begun to repair, indicating that the relationship between volume and price in the market is forming a new balance.

* The low level has stabilized, and the trading volume has steadily rebounded, which will be conducive to market confidence.

Second, the land market began to change.

Especially after the lifting of land price restrictions in many places, the core plates of some hot cities, the "land king" began to reappear.

On December 14, Dongguan's first unrestricted land plot broke the record of floor land price and became the local "new land king" with a premium rate of 30%.

On December 12, in the same local auction in Chengdu, even three "land kings" were auctioned.

There are not only plots, with a floor price of 23,500 yuan, a premium of 43%, auctioned off the city's new "land king", but also two other pieces of land, which also refreshed the regional land transaction record and became the "land king" of the plate.

Some real estate companies with stable operations have also begun to make up for their positions at the end of the year.

For example, in the Hangzhou land auction on December 12, Greentown spent 74100 million, 4 parcels of land in one go. Coupled with the two plots of land auctioned on the 11th, within two days, it cost tens of billions of yuan to win 6 plots, and the expansion is very positive.

Although the current land market is still highly differentiated, the local breakthrough of the transaction will also bring a more positive signal to the market, accelerate the market bottoming, and rebound confidence.

Standing at the end of the year, say goodbye to the old and welcome the new.

Whether it is the policy statement or the market data performance, we can now have reason to have a little more confidence in next year.

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