Say goodbye to the old and welcome the new, and wish you all a happy New Year's Day!Recently, in the domestic pig and grain market, the change of the first is quite concerned by farmers, after all, the change of the pig ** directly affects the profits of farmers, this 2023 pig ** long-term sideways "7 yuan era", pig fattening shows the performance of the annual loss, farmers are under greater financial pressure, and the mood is stronger, fortunately, the pig price ushered in a "good start", and the mentality of farmers has eased slightly, however, the prospect of pig prices is still poor, and the market still has the risk of further downward adjustment. In the grain market, grain prices "change", approaching New Year's Day, corn, wheat trend two days, among them, the corn market gradually stabilized, some enterprises began to raise prices to collect grain. However, wheat has fallen sharply, and in Shandong and Henan, milling enterprises have shown a trend of "cliff"!So, what's happening in the market?
First, the pig price is off to a good start!
In the pig market, on January 1, the national foreign ternary lean pig ***006 yuan, slaughtering enterprise ** at 1411 yuan kg, pig prices showed a trend of stopping the fall, in the north and south of the country, the pig price rise to the south, in the northeast, north and northwest, east China, central China, the mainstream provinces and regions of the slaughterhouse raised 005~0.25 yuan, southwest market **005~0.3 yuan kg!
At present, pig prices show a strong trend, which is mainly affected by the arrival of the New Year's Day holiday, the pig market has entered the stage of "farewell to the old and welcome the new", on the one hand, the rhythm of farmers slaughtering weakened, limited by the domestic pig price is at a low level, the Northeast market is less than 7 yuan catty, and the mainstream in North China is only hovering at 14 144 yuan, pig slaughter is facing severe loss pressure, the phenomenon of pig farm price shrinkage has increased, and the pace of domestic pig farm slaughter has slowed down.
At the same time, for the scale of pig enterprises in the north and south of the country, with the completion of the 23-year slaughter plan, the enthusiasm of large-scale pig enterprises in many places has weakened, the sentiment of some slaughtering enterprises has increased, the sentiment of reducing and pulling up has increased, and the difficulty of slaughterhouses to successfully collect pigs has increased sharply, and the phenomenon of stopping harvesting has weakened significantly
On the other hand, in terms of demand follow-up, supported by the festive atmosphere, the demand for pork consumption in the north and south of the country has improved, the demand for pickled meat in the south continues to ferment, and the household consumption of residents in the north has increased
Therefore, under the support of many positive parties, pig prices show a stable and strong trend, I personally believe that the short-term pig price will still be strong, the market bullish confidence still exists, and the pig price still has a slight upward trend. However, with the resumption of the rhythm of slaughter of large-scale pig enterprises in the north and south, the production capacity that has not yet been slaughtered before New Year's Day has been cleared, and the pressure on live pigs may increase, and there is still downward pressure
Second, corn **stop falling**!
In the corn market, in December, the corn spot market fell more than once, in particular, by the higher yield of autumn grain corn, the difficulty of farmers' storage increased, and the amount of corn at the grassroots level increased, however, the corn inventory of the first business and feed, deep processing enterprises was relatively sufficient, and the mentality of the enterprise was generalHowever, with the northeast region, rumors that the grain reserves increased by 4.5 million tons, and will continue to increase the reserves by 7.5 million tons
Judging from the market feedback, in the Northeast region, the purchase and sale of corn has stagnated, the amount of grassroots has decreased, the rigid demand of enterprises is weak, and the deep processing is stable5 1 point, Baicheng plum down 05 points, Heilongjiang corn ** at 0843~1.14 yuan catty, Jilin ** in 113~1.17 yuan, Liaoning ** in 1185~1.23 yuan, Inner Mongolia ** in 1135~1.29 yuan catty!
In the Shandong market, the corn arrival of deep processing enterprises in 347 cars, the amount of enterprises continued to decrease, the local farmers subscribed to the weak mentality, and the Northeast corn transfer decreased, local corn deep processing *** Among them, Weifang Shengtai, Weifang Yuanfa, Weifang Xingmao, Zaozhuang Hengren, Tai'an Xiangrui, Leling Zhonggu, Heze Chengwu, Binzhou Jinhui and Heze Dazecheng, corn prices rose 05 1 point, Shandong corn spot ** in 1221~1.314 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to the weakening of the grassroots corn subscription mentality, the tide grain has decreased, the difficulty of business procurement has increased, and the amount of corn in front of the enterprise is small, and the corn may maintain a weak, stable and strong trend, however, due to the low mentality of the phased feed enterprise replenishment, the corn inventory of deep processing enterprises is relatively sufficient, and the space for corn upward adjustment is limited
Third, wheat ** fell sharply!
In the wheat market, in the past two days, the corn market has gradually stabilized, however, the wheat market has fallen back, especially in the mainstream winter wheat producing areas, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, some enterprises have shown a sharp downward trend!
According to the analysis of the institution, from the market feedback, recently, the domestic small and medium-sized flour mills concentrated operating rate of 3468%, down 072 percentage points, the operating rate of milling enterprises continued to fall, the level of bran ** declined, however, due to the high cost performance of corn, domestic rice and barley and other import substitute inventories are sufficient, bran goods are still not smooth, some production areas, high mixed bran ** less than 1 yuan catty, milling enterprises lack of by-products to usher in space!In terms of main products, due to the general stocking of the New Year's Day market, the lack of obvious enthusiasm of the merchants and the downstream market, the inventory pressure of milling enterprises is not reduced, and some enterprises passively reduce prices, and the flour is weak, which also exacerbates the pressure of loss of flour mills
In terms of wheat, by the domestic temporary storage and the lowest purchase price of wheat to resume bidding auctions, from the official announcement, the first temporary storage of wheat for the Xinjiang region, the volume of 20,000 tons for 15 16 years of non-alpine wheat, the bidding floor price of 2,500 yuan tons!
Due to the temporary storage of wheat bidding floor price and the domestic spot wheat ** price difference is too large, the first business panic to sell grain mentality stronger, recently, the main body of grain cash out, milling enterprises on the volume of goods significantly improved, the factory operating rate is low, "buy up, not buy down" sentiment is strong, the replenishment mentality is more cautious, wheat spot ** sharply down!
Among them, in Shandong, the price of mainstream milling enterprises fell by 1 2 catties, and the spot price of wheat fell to 139~1.49 yuan catty, the mainstream ** in 14~1.45 yuan;Henan market wheat listed ** in 138~1.52 yuan, mainstream enterprises ** in 14~1.45 yuan, the price range is 05 2 pounds;Hebei market, wheat listed ** in 14~1.425 yuan, the price range is 05 1 cent!
In the short term, affected by the temporary storage of wheat, the main sentiment of the grain holding has deteriorated, the pessimism has risen, the wheat has increased and the exit has increased, and the enterprises just need to replenish the warehouse
Food prices "change"!On January 1, pig prices got off to a good start, and corn and wheat were on the same day!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, the content is original, for reference only!