【Reading guide】12 months gradually into the middle,Recently,Pig prices show a trend of "first suppressing and then rising",Before the heavy snow solar term,Due to the influence of El Niño events in the north and south,The temperature in the previous winter is generally high,Previously,Henan、Hebei and Shandong The highest temperature in many places broke the historical extreme value in December,The temperature in some cities is as high as 27 Under the abnormally warm temperature, this also makes the risk of disease in the northern pig farms surge, many pig farms are small and non-repeated, the breeding end is facing a deep loss cycle, the weight gain mentality of the pressure bar is poor, the rhythm of slaughter has increased significantly, the pig price has fallen to a new low in the year, and the price of pigs has bottomed out at 1356 yuan kg!Hogs**
However, with the first round of cold wave weather, North China, Huanghuai and other places, ushered in a wide range of rain and snow cooling weather, the market bearish sentiment weakened, the bullish atmosphere became stronger, the domestic pig price showed a north-south rising situation, on December 13, the price of foreign three yuan pig rose to 1415 yuan kg, 4 days up 5 Mao 9, pig prices rose by 4About 35%!
However, the impact of the first round of cold wave weather on the southern region is weak, and the market mentality has deteriorated slightlyHowever, with the second cold wave hit, the market mentality has become stronger again, in particular, the cold wave weather not only affects East China, Central China and North China, most of them will once again usher in the rain and snow cooling weather, and the deep South China and Southwest China will also face a relatively large cooling weather process, the domestic rain and snow dividing line or will be further south to the Yangtze River Basin, many places in the south will also usher in the first snow since this winter, affected by this round of cold wave weather, the bullish confidence of the breeding end has been significantly enhanced, and the pig price ** "icing on the cake"!
On the one hand, the temperature in the south has dropped sharply, in the southwest, pork curing or will be fully launched, due to the low domestic pork, according to official sources, at present, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market is 1989 yuan kilograms, the price of meat is less than 10 yuan catties, and the demand for cured meat made by southern residents may increase significantly!Some institutions, fresh pork consumption level or will increase 2 3 percent, which is bound to increase the performance of the slaughtering enterprise operating rate, slaughtering enterprises pig enthusiasm or will be greatly improved, the southwest market pig consumption level will also be significantly improved, the pig ** high, will inevitably drive the circulation of the regional pig market!
On the other hand, the weather process of large-scale rain and snow cooling will inevitably limit the normal performance of grassroots farmers, the circulation of live pigs in the society may shrink, the difficulty of purchasing pigs in slaughterhouses will increase sharply, the voice of group pig enterprises may be enhanced, and the mentality of large factories will increase!
Superimposed, after the cold wave weather, the north and south regions of the country or will continue to enter the cold cycle, the temperature drops, which is conducive to the north and south regions, the enthusiasm of meat consumption, the consumption season or will be homeopathic, the pressure on the breeding end of the slaughter or will be reduced, and the bullish sentiment may become stronger!
Therefore, based on multiple factors in the market, with the help of the second cold wave weather, pig prices or will be "icing on the cake", * the center of gravity or will move significantly upward, some institutions, after mid to late December, pig prices are still expected to show a "break 7 into 8" situation, however, due to the overall loose domestic pig production capacity, pig and pork ** level is sufficient, rationally, the height of pig prices will not be as high as expected, the author will continue to pay attention to market trends, timely to farmers to make a warning!
4 days up 5 Mao 9, the second cold wave hit, pig prices "icing on the cake", breaking 7 into 8?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!