Recently, the Shandong regionCorn**In a straight line** trend, and ** in the Northeast region is more violent, with a single-day decline of 50 yuan tons. Taking Heilongjiang as an example, ** has been close to touching 11 yuan catty".flooringvalence", which makes itCorn**A drop below one dollar is a foregone conclusion. In this case, the panic of the main body of grain will be completely releasedCornPrice smashing has become an almost definite fact. The New Year's Day holiday is less than two weeks away, and there are only 50 days left before the Spring Festival, which has brought increasing pressure to the grain sales time of the main body of grain holders. The pressure of the market is increasing, and the first business has no intention of building a warehouse, deep processing enterprises continue to reduce prices, and feed companies use as they go. In this case, in the short termCorn**will continue**, falling to "flooringprice" will becomeCornThe basic situation of the market.
AlthoughCornThe continuation of the industry has brought a lot of trouble, but there are also some positive factors. First of all, onceCorn**Reach".flooringprice", * Shang Jianku's emotions will inevitably erupt. Although the current ** businessman is in a state of caution, if the profit can reach more than 100 yuan, the boss who dares to take risks is bound to increase significantly. Secondly, feed companies are looking at the market onceCorn**Arrived".flooringThe scale and speed with which they are purchased is bound to be amazing. So, despite the currentCornBut it is also a good opportunity for first-class merchants and feed companies.
According to the current scale of shipments, the shipments of the production area are expected to reach 50% or more before the year. Especially in North China and Shandong, the shipments before the year will have a certain positive effect on the trend after the year. Even North China and Shandong may have extreme ****, which will further push up the Northeast regionCorn**。In past reports, we have mentioned many times that even with the stimulus of holiday stocking, it is necessary to lower the expectation of **. However, for nowCornObvious profit margins have emerged, and once companies start stocking up, it's inevitable. In fact, the profits of deep processing enterprises continue to rise, leaving room for food prices.
In addition, the number of grain purchases in the country has declined, the transaction has begun to decline, and the accompanying grain depots in various places have been invisibly diluted, becoming the last straw that crushes the market. In summary,CornIn the short term, it will continue to decline and gradually fall to ".flooringprice", but the main body of grain needs to pay close attention to the shipment situation before the year, because once the proportion of shipments before the year reaches fifty percent, the year after the yearCornIt is possible to usher in a new wave of ***
It can be clearly felt, along withCorn**Acceleration**,Wheat** There is a situation of following the decline, which leads to the mentality of the main body of food to become panicked. Some even think pessimisticallyWheat**To drop to 14 yuan is the head. However,Wheat**of** to a certain extent receivedCornimpact, but this is to be expected. Two points were reiterated, oneWheatThe amplitude is limited, and the second isWheat**will**. At this stage, it is a critical moment when the results of the game are about to be released, and it depends on who admits defeat first on both sides of supply and demand.
From the perspective of policy, supply and demand, holiday stimulus, construction cost and market surplus grainWheatThere is a distinct cycle. As forWheat**To drop to 14 yuan catty, it may be possible for Xinmai to be launched in 2024, but it is not possible now. Even if the grain has been put on the market at present, its floor price can reach 1More than 5 yuan, even if the trading volume drops sharply, there is no sign of downward adjustment. This should be a clear and sufficient signal.
To sum up, for years agoWheatOur view is simple: around New Year's DayWheat**There is a high probability that there will be a wave**, possibly back to 15 yuan jin;Around the Spring Festival,Wheat**Probability will** to 155 yuan or so, and even has an impact of 16 yuan catty possibility. This week, we need to pay attention to the shipment of the main body of grain holdings, if there is no large-scale increase, **moderate** is inevitable. While **will continue**, further bottoming is unlikely. Although the supply and demand sides are in a game, over time, the sellers begin to gain the upper hand.