From January to November 2019, China's food ** was basically the same as last year, and the increase was at a low level in the past decade. Spokesperson for the National *** PressLi ChaoIt is pointed out that this phenomenon is mainly affected by the superposition of various factors such as importation, cyclicality and seasonality. Specifically, pork and vegetables were affected by last year's high base and this year's high fall.
In the case of pork, the second half of last yearHogs** At a high level, there is a significant increase in production capacity, resulting in this yearHogs, the pork market is sufficient, at a low level, in November ** fell by 31 year-on-year8%。At present, with the approach of the "two festivals", the market demand increases seasonallyHogsand pork ** may pick up.
As for fresh vegetables, due to poor transportation and logistics last winter, there were more fresh vegetables, and in the same period this year, they were domesticLogistics and distributionUnblocked, the supply of fresh vegetables is sufficient, and the average ** from October to November decreased by 1 year-on-year6%。
In addition, changes in food ** also have an impact on food **. Last year, the international grain **sharply**, resulting in domestic wheat,Corn, soybeans and other grains** increased to varying degrees. However, this year the imported impact has weakened significantly, and the grain andCooking oil**Generally stable, the impact on food** has weakened compared with last year.
Judging from the later trend, at present, our countryAgricultural productsThe market is abundant, the connection between production and marketing is smooth, and the market order is good. This lays the foundation for the smooth operation of the food **.
This yearcpiThe overall operation is low, but with the adjustment of import, cyclical and seasonal factors, the base effect has gradually weakened, and the demand for goods and services has continued to recover. Therefore, the state *** is expected next yearcpiwill pick up moderately.
Taking into account both domestic and foreignEconomyThe situation and factors, next year's CPI should be more comprehensive. First of all, with the domesticEconomySteady growth, consumer demand will be further enhanced, may have a certain role in promoting the development of some important consumer goods. Secondly, international oil pricesAgricultural products** As well as other input factors, fluctuations will also be truecpiMake an impact. In addition, as cyclical and seasonal factors change, there may be an increase in the number of specific breeds.
However, it should be noted that next yearcpiThe recovery will remain modest, not large. InMacro policyUnder the guidance of market supervision, China has the ability to maintain stable inflation and take corresponding regulatory measures as needed.
By analyzing the content of the national press conference, we can see that the low increase in food ** this year is mainly affected by factors such as importation, cyclicality and seasonality. Pork and vegetables** due to last year's high base and this year's high level have a greater impact. With the approach of the "two festivals" and the seasonal increase in market demand, it is expected that the food ** may rebound in the later period.
Incpiaspects, this year overall low run, but withEconomyThe situation is changing and the demand is gradually recovering next yearcpiwill pick up moderately. However, the recovery will remain within a reasonable range and will not be significant. So I think next year food ** andcpiThe trend should remain relatively stable. Relevant departments should continue to strengthen market supervision to ensure the stability of food and the good operation of market order. At the same time, we, as consumers, should also pay attention to the changes in food **, and choose consumption reasonably for the countryEconomyContribute to stable development.