The National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference held a few days ago proposed to build a new model of real estate development and establish a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money". It is of great significance to accelerate the construction of a real estate "man-land linkage" model to solve the mismatch between market supply and demand and promote the stable and healthy development of the property market.
Population is the basic dimension to measure housing demand, and it is also the fundamental driving force for real estate development. In recent years, China's population has become more concentrated in urban agglomerations, and there is a relative shortage of housing in first-tier cities and hot second-tier citiesIn small and medium-sized cities with a net outflow of population, especially in small cities far away from metropolitan areas, the real estate inventory is larger, and the overall situation is in a state of surplus. The intensification of differentiation due to population movements is one of the distinctive features of the real estate market.
Therefore, the property market regulation policy should take demographic change as the logical starting point. Taking stock of the property market regulation policies in recent years, some cities have not achieved satisfactory results. Analyzing the reasons, in addition to the obvious short-term policy tendency and the lag of regulation and control measures, the more important thing is that all localities pay more attention to demand-side regulation and control, and the supply-side regulation and control are not enough, and the supply regulation and demand regulation are not equally emphasized, and the balance and improvement of market supply and demand, and the coordination degree of solving short-term problems and long-term development is insufficient.
* The Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the construction of a new type of urbanization with the county as an important carrier. An important internal driving force for real estate development is urbanization, and the benign development of urbanization needs to be people-oriented. It should be noted that some cities deliberately pursue the scale of development when carrying out urbanization planning, resulting in a serious imbalance in land planning and population size, which has laid hidden dangers for the healthy development of the property market.
The previously released "14th Five-Year Plan" for public services proposes that large cities with a net inflow of population should vigorously develop affordable rental housing, mainly to solve the housing difficulties of eligible new citizens, young people and other groups. This is also to adjust the corresponding policies according to the flow of population. However, some people believe that with the increase in the construction of affordable housing, it will form a constraint on the real estate market and commercial housing. In fact, housing as a whole depends on the actual supply and effective demand, and there is no need to worry too much about the impact of affordable housing on the commercial housing market. From the perspective of the population covered, many migrant workers in the city have been working in the city for a long time, and they are not the main force in buying commercial housing, but affordable housing can allow them to settle down and better live and develop in the cityThe young people who have just graduated are mainly renting, and the ** of affordable housing will not cause a significant reduction in the number of people who buy houses.
In short, talking about the property market without the population is not only a source of water, but also a tree without roots. All localities should scientifically allocate factor resources, accelerate the construction of real estate "people-land linkage" model, land development and property market policies should be closely focused on population changes, to determine housing by people, to determine land by housing. From the total point of view, China's population growth period has ended, real estate development has become history, the market has gradually entered the era of refined stock, we should explore the establishment of a dynamic land supply system with population changes, improve the efficiency of land allocation, solve the mismatch of land resource supply, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. (This article**: Economy** Author: Guo Cunju).