On November 27, the central bank, together with the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, jointly issued the "25 Notices to Support the Private Economy".
The question is, since it is aimed at the private economy, what does it have to do with our people?
Don't be in a hurry, let's take a closer look at the content first, the key is these two points:
1. Financial institutions such as the banking industry should increase the support for first loans and credit loans
2. Increase support for private small, medium and micro enterprises.
In the past two years, from the perspective of the property market alone, we can find a phenomenon at a glance, which is basically supported by central state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises have frequent thunderstorms. This undoubtedly reflects a problem:
The private economy has encountered a cold winter, and if it cannot be changed, it will have a great impact on our lives.
This is really not an exaggeration, take small and micro enterprises as an example, most of them are individual entrepreneurs, and the capital is small.
If we don't increase support, one by one will close down, and behind the scenes, countless families will have a life crisis.
First of all, please note that buying a house is no longer the only way for everyone, and the key is to have a stable life and increase income.
Do you remember?We've been talking about this question for a long time: why are developers willing to sell their homes at 7 or 5 discounts?
That's right, it's because there is no money.
So why are they running out of money?In addition to the difficulty in selling houses, in fact, you have all overlooked this point, which is the weakening of the support of financial institutions.
Looking at these two data, also as of the end of the third quarter of this year, there is a big gap:
1. The amount of bonds issued by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises reached 226.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of only 7%.
2. The amount of bonds issued by private enterprises was only 31.6 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 72% year-on-year.
This gap makes it difficult for private enterprises to finance, coupled with the low transaction volume of commercial housing, the maturity of debts is not paid, and the debt ratio is rising.
Obviously, the high-level has long known this, so this time, the eight authoritative departments issued the "25 notices", in fact, to solve this problem as soon as possible.
As a result, it will definitely affect housing prices.
If the financing works, let's take a look at what happens next, and my opinion includes three points:
Clause. First, it is probably the first to solve the unfinished business, which is also in line with the national strategy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings;Clause.
Second, continue to sell houses at discounts and prices, and first look at the short-term transaction volume;Clause.
Third, if it gradually sells well, it is possible to recover part of the discount, but the house price is unlikely**.
The reason is very simple, China has gone through the era of "volume-oriented", and the important support for housing prices is the transaction volume.
Therefore, although the problem of private enterprise funds will be basically solved in the future, at most it will be to recover the discount, and it will be difficult to find the house price, which is fundamentally different.
As surveyed by the E-House Research Institute, as of the end of May 2023, nearly 70 of the country's 100 cities have had a decontamination cycle of more than 14 months. Especially compared with 2016-2021, the ** amplitude is very obvious.
What's more, our expectations for the property market are difficult to change in the short term, which will also indirectly affect the transaction volume, and the stability of housing prices is the main theme.
In this way, this may be completely different from the arrival of the spring of the property market.
There is no need to wait for the house price**, just as long as the private enterprise recovers the discount, in fact, there are already two types of people who have benefited.
The reason is very simple, the house price **, the houseless will definitely benefit, the cost of buying a house has dropped greatly, but the problem is that if you need to buy a house urgently, then you will encounter a problem: house prices have been falling.
There is no doubt that I will definitely suffer.
The first category is the old owners who have just bought a house.
Please note that this is talking about the purchase of a house, which is roughly within the last six months. It has been reported before that the developer sells the house at a 7% discount, and the old owner protects the rights of the sales department, etc., such a thing is not an exception.
Imagine, you originally spent 1.5 million to buy a suite, but within 1-2 months, it fell by 200,000, would you be willing?
Therefore, as long as the developer recovers the discount, the old owner will naturally benefit, which is our interpretation from a psychological point of view, after all, no one wants to suffer.
The second category is the developer who withdraws funds.
As an important part of the developer's housing construction funds, in addition to the pre-sale deposit, financing is an important way.
This is also an important reason why in the context of ensuring the delivery of buildings, the central bank and other eight authoritative departments still have to find ways to issue "25 notices".
Let's take a look at the two key points at the beginning, and one of the keys is to alleviate the problem of tight funds for developers.
Anyway:
For homeless people, whether it is good or bad depends on personal opinion, and the reason is simple.
Some people hope to **, but it doesn't fall all the time, but it falls before he buys a house, but it rises as long as he buys a house.
Others believe that it is best to get a 1% discount on the house price.
Which view do you agree more with?
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