How do you view the current economic trend, and what is the stamina of China's economy?
Compared with the first three quarters of this year, China's economy grew by 9.% year-on-year8%, with an average growth of 5 over two years2%, and the year-on-year growth rate fell back to 4 in the third quarter9%, how do you see it?
9.The growth rate of 8% in the first three quarters is much higher than the annual growth target of "more than 6%" set at the beginning of the year, and is also higher than the global average growth rate and the growth rate of major economies. It should be said that China's economy still maintains a sustained recovery momentum that began in the second half of last year.
But compared to the first quarter of this year 183%, 7 in the second quarterThe economic growth rate of 9% and the growth rate in the third quarter "broke 5" have attracted considerable attention, and even caused some worries.
What is the reason for the slowdown in quarterly growth?
The base effect is a big factor. -6.8%，3.2%，4.9%，6.5%, the upward line drawn by China's economy in the four quarters of last year indicates that China's economic trend this year will inevitably be "high before and then low", and the slope is relatively steep.
Short-term factors also have a certain impact. Since the second half of the year, the domestic epidemic has been scattered in many places, Henan and Shanxi have suffered heavy rain and floods, coupled with multiple factors such as the slowdown in global economic growth and the high level of bulk raw materials, and the road to economic recovery has encountered difficulties.
In the face of the challenges of the economic downturn, we will maintain strategic focus, resolutely refrain from "flooding", and take measures such as continuing to promote green and low-carbon development and reducing dependence on real estate and debt, so as to release a policy signal not to follow the old path of extensive growth and firmly move towards high-quality development.
The slowdown in the third quarter is good for China's economy in the long run. Germany's "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" commented that if China does not go through these structural adjustments, economic growth will be faster, but China's economy may not be on the right track.
To observe the economic situation, we must not only look at the short term, but also look at the long term and the overall situation, so that we can see the general trend from the clouds.
Under multiple risks and challenges, the characteristics of China's economic stability are still distinct, and the bright spots are prominent.
The four major macroeconomic indicators of economic growth, employment, prices, and balance of payments show that the "foundation" of China's economy is still solid
On October 23, a graduate (left) talks with a staff member of a recruitment company at the main venue of Nanchang University, a "100 Campus Recruitment" event held in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Peng Zhaozhi.
In the first three quarters, the economy was still operating within a reasonable range;10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving 95% of the annual targetNational household consumption**year-on-year**06. The overall price level is low and stable;Imports, exports and the use of foreign capital have maintained high growth, and foreign exchange reserves have remained at 3 for five consecutive monthsMore than $2 trillion.
The production situation is stable and improving, and the momentum of innovation is constantly increasing
It is a foregone conclusion that the autumn grain output will increase, and the annual grain output is expected to hit a record highIn the first three quarters, the two-year average growth rate of production and investment in high-tech manufacturing was double-digitThe output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased year-on-year. 1%……
The company's profits have grown steadily, and its economic benefits have been continuously improved
In the first eight months, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 49 percent year-on-year5%, an increase of 429%；In the first three quarters, the recovery growth trend of fiscal revenue was generally stable, and the national general public budget revenue increased by 16 percent year-on-year3%；After deducting the impact of ** factors, the per capita disposable income of residents in the country increased by 97%, which is basically in tandem with GDP growth......
On July 1, in the industrial robot production workshop of Nanjing Estun Automation Co., Ltd., located in Jiangning District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, the industrial robot was running and closing the test. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Bo.
Under the multiple tests, we must strengthen our confidence in development, and we must remain sober in the steady recovery.
On the one hand, it should be noted that under the more complex domestic and international situation, economic growth in the fourth quarter and early next year still faces many risks and challenges. Among the four major macroeconomic indicators, the structural contradiction of employment is prominent, and the "scissors gap" between CPI and PPI has widenedIn the "troika," there are still many factors restricting investment and consumer demand......
On the other hand, we must firmly believe that although China's economy is facing relatively complex periodic, structural and cyclical problems, we have the means and ability to stabilize the momentum of sustained recovery, maintain strategic focus, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy.
In the face of pressure, confidence is more precious than **.
On October 15, workers in Hebei Xintiehu Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd., located in Renqiu City, Hebei Province, were inspecting product quality. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Mu Yu.
China is a very resilient mega-economy, and this resilience comes from nearly 1The competitiveness of 500 million market players comes from the integrity of the economic system, from the super-large domestic market and the unremitting pursuit of hundreds of millions of people to achieve a better life through hard work.
At present, international institutions generally state that China's economy can still achieve economic growth of about 8% this year.
Looking at the general trend, we are fully capable and qualified to achieve this year's economic and social development goals, the long-term positive trend of China's economy will not change, and China's economy will surely be stable and far-reaching on the track of high-quality development.
(2) What is the stamina of consumption and investment, and how should the game of chess be played to expand domestic demand?
Consumption and investment are the "twin engines" for expanding domestic demand. In the first half of this year, domestic demand contributed more than 80 percent to China's economy.
Consumption is picking up. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 318057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 164%, maintaining double-digit rapid growth. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year4%, 1 percent faster than the previous month9 percentage points, market sales further accelerated.
Under the spread of the global epidemic, the resilience of China's consumer market has become more prominent, and the main role of consumer demand in driving economic growth has been further revealed. In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 64 percent to economic growth8%, an increase of 3 over the first half of the year1 percentage point. At the same time, upgraded consumption grew rapidly, and online consumption continued to be hot.
Consumption has also shown ups and downs. In August, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in many places, consumption increased by only 2 percent year-on-year5%, the growth rate fell by 6 percentage points from the previous month, a new low in the past year;In September, the epidemic was effectively controlled, and consumption was further rebounded due to the superposition of pro-consumption policies and Mid-Autumn Festival consumption.
There is no shortage of bright spots in investment. In the first three quarters, the country's investment in fixed assets increased by 7 percent year-on-year3% to achieve stable growth. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was higher than the growth rate of all investment by 75 percentage points;Investment in high-tech industries increased by 18 percent year-on-year7%。
However, it should also be noted that in the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment slowed down compared with the first half of the year. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a continuous negative impact on service consumption and contact consumption;Due to the large cost of raw materials, the impact of the epidemic and floods, the growth rate of investment has slowed down.
Considering the current volatile external environment and the possible decline in export growth in the coming period, it is more important to stabilize and expand domestic demand.
On October 2, people play in Yu Garden in Shanghai. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Xiang.
What is the future trend of consumption?In view of last year's base factors, this year's consumption growth rate will generally show a pattern of "high before and then low", and consumption will continue to recover steadily in October and even the entire fourth quarter, and the total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to reach 44 trillion yuan in the whole year.
Overall, China's consumer market has huge potential, the momentum of upgrading is obvious, and the foundation for consumption recovery is still sound.
What is the consumption potential of the Chinese people?It can be seen through this set of data: since the release of the National Day movie "Changjin Lake", the box office has exceeded 5.2 billion yuan, and more than 100 million people have watched the movie. On the opening day of Universal Beijing Resort, tickets sold out quickly. According to Wall Street**, "tickets are empty in seconds" reflects the huge consumption enthusiasm of Chinese tourists.
On October 7, two young people were posters of the movie "Changjin Lake" in a theater in Beijing. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Xin.
In the future, a series of pro-consumption policies will continue to be implemented: further stabilize and boost bulk consumption, accelerate the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities, increase the development of rural markets, promote the faster and better recovery of the catering market, and promote the accelerated development of new consumption ......Consumption potential is expected to be further unleashed.
There is also a supporting basis for the steady growth of investment. In the past few days, major projects in Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan and other places have started one after another. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, a "road map" for expanding effective investment has been drawn, and 102 major projects have been steadily advanced. In the next few months, more measures to expand domestic demand will be introduced, which is expected to accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, further smooth the domestic economic cycle, and more effectively stimulate the potential of China's super-large market.
(3) Can the "highlight moment" of foreign trade be sustained, and how to stabilize the main body and orders?
Foreign trade, in the latest release of China's economic third quarter report, can be described as a very bright performance among many data-
In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of goods was 2833 trillion yuan, an increase of 22 over the same period last year7%, especially in September, exports were exceptionally strong, with a year-on-year increase of 281%, far exceeding market expectations, and the role of stimulating the national economy has been continuously enhanced.
This is the scene of the 130th Canton Fair filmed in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province on October 15. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Dawei.
Since the beginning of this year, some foreign institutions and foreign media have repeatedly noticed the strong growth of China's foreign trade. According to Reuters, the resilience of China's ** chain is difficult to underestimate. Barclays analysts said this reflected "continued global demand for Chinese commodities".
Under the impact of the epidemic, the world's largest shrinkage, but China's foreign trade has maintained positive growth for 16 consecutive months, especially since this year, it has maintained double-digit growth: on land transportation, the China-Europe trains, known as the "steel camel fleet", have run more than 40,000 columns, becoming a "bond of destiny" for countries to work together to fight the epidemic;In terms of shipping, in the first three quarters, the national ports completed 115 cargo throughput4.8 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 89%；Complete container throughput 21.1 billion TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 95%。
On September 28, the "Shanghai" China-Europe train departed from Shanghai and sailed to Hamburg, Germany. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Ding Ting.
The "highlight moment" of foreign trade stems from the "dividend effect" of China's effective prevention and control of the epidemic, and is also a reflection of the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy, and the highlight of the resilience and strength of foreign trade.
The biggest uncertainty in global commodities** comes from the pandemic. China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and resuming work and production in an orderly manner, providing a good environment for production and exports.
Behind the dazzling data, there are not without hidden concerns. Looking at the foreign trade data since the beginning of this year, from a quarterly point of view, the year-on-year growth rate of China's imports and exports in the first, second and third quarters showed a gradual downward trend. From a monthly point of view, the growth rate of imports and exports in September fell by 3 compared with August5 percentage points;
On October 23, a ship berthed at the container terminal in the Jingtang Port Area of Tangshan Port (drone**) Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhu Xudong.
Considering the high foreign trade base in the second half of last year and other factors, it is a high probability event that the growth rate of foreign trade this year will fall and the overall trend of "high before and then low". In particular, the recent flood situation, epidemic situation and power shortage in some areas have also formed certain restrictions on exports. Behind the surge in orders, insufficient capacity, high freight rates, and ...... pressure on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of commodities and raw materialsThere are goods that can't be exported, and there are orders that are not profitable, which has become a concern for many foreign trade enterprises.
How long can the "highlight moment" of foreign trade last?
On the one hand, as the global epidemic is gradually controlled, the resumption of work and production accelerates, and the external demand increases, which will further boost China's exportsBut on the other hand, "one-time factors" such as the sharp increase in the export volume of epidemic prevention materials will gradually subside. Positive and negative factors affect each other, and the challenges facing foreign trade are still not small.
Looking ahead, although the growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter may drop slightly, we still have reason to be full of confidence: the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, the development trend of steady and qualitative growth of foreign trade has good support, domestic and international dual circulation promote each other, China's foreign trade added value and export product level continue to improve, and a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade have been implemented one after another, helping to alleviate the concerns of foreign trade enterprises.
According to the monitoring of relevant departments, by the first quarter of next year and even the first half of the year, the orders of key foreign trade enterprises are still sufficient. It is foreseeable that imports and exports are still expected to maintain steady growth throughout the year, and foreign trade will continue to play an important role in stimulating China's economy.
(4) How to view the supply-side structural reform and how to take the road of high-quality development?
Under the current complex and volatile situation facing China's economy, how to grasp the main line of deepening supply-side structural reform?
On the evening of October 21, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will implement and orderly promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and the first batch will focus on key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, and calcium carbide.
The more we see the essence behind the problem when economic development is under pressure, the more we can highlight the determination and determination of high-quality development.
Since the beginning of this year, the characteristics of China's high-quality economic development have become more distinct, the economic structure has been adjusted and optimized, the quality and efficiency of development have been continuously improved, and the momentum has continued to increase. In particular, the utilization rate of industrial capacity is at a good level, the asset-liability ratio of enterprises has declined, the growth rate of investment in education and health care is faster than the growth of all investment, and the results of supply-side structural reform have continued to consolidate.
However, at the same time, affected by factors such as the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy and international bulk commodities, some resource-based industries have once again shown an expansion trend, and the "two high" projects have risen, and the energy intensity of 9 provinces and regions in the first half of the year has risen instead of declining.
Relevant analysts warn that as the epidemic situation abroad is gradually under control and the production capacity of major economies begins to recover, it is necessary to be vigilant against the rise of overcapacity after exports.
These phenomena highlight that the supply side is still the main contradiction in economic work at present and for a period of time to come, and that supply-side structural reform must and remains the main direction of economic work
At the end of July, the Politburo meeting clearly and resolutely curbed the blind development of the "two supremes" projectsFrom **ecological and environmental protection inspectors to special inspections, many places have been named**;Electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries has been strictly controlled. Adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, do not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, and accelerate the development of affordable rental housing ......
With a series of pragmatic measures have been implemented: in September, the output of crude steel, steel, electrolytic aluminum and other products in the first half of the year respectively hit a new high in recent years and then continued to fall, and the export volume of steel has also fallen from the high level in the first half of the year to less than 5 million tons.
China's slowing growth has not been enough to stop it from introducing a series of policies that prioritize long-term structural reforms over short-term growth. "The Financial Times** analysis said that the first three quarters of 9The growth rate of 8% is much higher than the annual economic growth target of more than 6%. This provides a "window of opportunity" for China to move away from its traditional growth model.
In fact, as early as the end of last year, the first economic work conference proposed to make good use of the precious time window, focus on promoting reform and innovation, and make a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" with high-quality development. To take the first step in building a new development pattern and see the new atmosphere, we must adhere to the main line of deepening supply-side structural reform.
Deepening supply-side structural reform fundamentally depends on reform and innovation. Since the beginning of this year, from consolidating the achievements of "three removals, one reduction and one supplement" to promoting the construction of a high-standard market system;From the overall promotion of the reform of mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises, support the reform and development of private enterprises, to strive to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment;From supporting the high-level reform and opening up of Pudong New Area to building a leading area for socialist modernization to accelerating the construction of Hainan Free Port ......Reform and innovation continue to lay out the layout, and strive to break through the blockages that restrict the adaptation of supply and demand and the flow of factors.
Those who travel a hundred miles are half ninety. Deepening supply-side structural reform is a protracted battle. Grasp the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, firmly grasp this main line, and work firmly, boldly, solidly, precisely, and never look back, China's economy will surely usher in a bright prospect of high-quality development.