Charging and battery swapping, which one is more representative of the industry trend?New energy vehicles have been losing money, and the future is in the first placeUnder the extreme "involution" of the industry, where will new energy go?
These topics must be of great concern not only to everyone in the automotive industry, but also to ordinary consumers. Recently, Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO, Lu Fang, CEO of VOYAH Automobile, Deng Chenghao, vice president of Changan Automobile and CEO of Deep Blue Automobile, Wu Baojun, co-founder, director and president of Leapmotor Technology, and Xia Yiping, CEO of Jidu and CEO of Jiyue, had a dialogue on the same stage.
Qin Lihong
Lu Fang
Deng Chenghao
Wu Baojun
Xia Yiping
Qin LihongBattery swapping and charging are not mutually exclusive, and NIO has been establishing a rechargeable, swappable and upgradable system since its establishment, that is, charging where it can be charged, and changing where it should be.
Charging piles are facilities that meet more scenarios and a wider layout, and NIO is actually the company that has deployed the most charging piles in China, with more than 1There are more than 80,000 public charging piles, and nearly 2,100 battery swap stations have been laid out. In this process, we have provided users with a total of almost 200,000 flexible battery upgrade services of various types.
In total, we have provided close to 25 million real battery swaps, an average of every 1In about 5 seconds, a NIO car left after changing the battery. Imagine that it is enough to use a small battery for city passage in normal times, and a large battery to support an increase in range at one time when you go home on holidays. At the end of the day, it's about using technology to optimize the user's experience.
Lu FangFor VOYAH, it is determined to take two technical routes: one is to adhere to the high-voltage fast charging route in pure electric vehicles;The second is to take the hybrid route based on pure electricity.
The pure electric range can meet the commute of a week at the level of 260 kilometers, and in this scenario, it is mainly electric drive. However, at present, many energy replenishment equipment and energy replenishment facilities are not so perfect and popular, and in this case, hybrid vehicles are still needed to solve the problem.
In the future, with the rapid iteration of battery technology and the rapid construction of infrastructure, we judge that it will eventually go to the route based on pure electricity, but it may take decades or even longer. Charging will also get faster and faster, and VOYAH has been able to run 400 kilometers in 10 minutes.
Deng ChenghaoIn the long run, it must be dominated by charging, but if charging is as fast as refueling one day, pure electric will usher in a real spring. But there are also many constraints, such as the battery should be safe, the degradation life of the battery should not be affected, the infrastructure should meet the requirements, and so on. At present, it seems that this generation of batteries is actually difficult to achieve, and it is possible that the next generation will be realized and the next generation will be realized. For a long time, if you want to make pure electric as convenient as refueling, energy replenishment is the key.
Everyone has their own methods, NIO uses battery swap technology, VOYAH uses hybrid technology, and Deep Blue resolutely does range extension technology. The core logic is that some do "fixed-point charging", some do "fixed-point exchange", and Deep Blue does "charging while running".
Wu BaojunCommercial vehicles need more battery swap mode, and online car-hailing is also a commercial vehicle, but basically no one uses battery swapping in the online car-hailing field, so charging should be a big trend, because users have a lot of leisure time. I am more supportive of charging technology, and there may be other ways to charge in the future to optimize efficiency.
Xia YipingIf the battery swap facility is really done well, there is no need to drive the car every day, carrying a 100-degree battery, and it can be replaced with a small battery. The technology has not developed because there is no industry standard, and no one is willing to use a set of standards to do it together and pave the battery swap station.
Considering the cost, experience, and the carrying capacity of the power grid, in the end, it is still the development path of the hybrid mode, because some people have home charging capacity at home, and the absolute majority may be overcharging piles and battery swap stations, and even many battery swap stations seen in the future are "battery swap + supercharge integration". In the future, it will be a three-dimensional energy exchange pattern. In the long run, battery swapping will account for 30% of the entire market, 800V and overcharging will account for a larger proportion, about 40% to 50%, and some will exist in home charging piles and slow charging piles.
Qin LihongIn the past ten years, the state subsidy is the consumption side, not the operating cost of subsidizing enterprises, in the case of insufficient maturity of technology and large-scale mass production, so that consumers can first use the car with a cheaper ** and a lower threshold. Many European and American countries have criticized China's "subsidies" as wrong, but since this year, China has stopped subsidizing, but has increased global subsidies. In China, the industry has grown up with support and cultivated new consumption Xi.
From the enterprise side, first, there are indeed many new technologies with a low degree of mass production and commercialization, and the stage cost is relatively high, and the cost has fluctuated violentlySecond, at the beginning of the industry, it is necessary to invest a little more in order to strive for greater opportunities in the future. Just like a family, when the children are young, do they spend more money on school or work earlier to earn money to support the family?
Lu FangThe new energy industry is more in the investment period, and it costs a lot of money to cultivate brands, cultivate markets, cultivate users, and so on. Now there is another problem that the technical route is in a highly uncertain state, such as charging and battery swapping, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, etc., all have very uncertain technical routes. Just like a child needs to invest in the process of growing up, saying that it is not profitable now or that there is no room for profit in the future is a bit unrealistic, and it needs to be looked at in the long run.
Deng ChenghaoDeep Blue is also in the "loss", to be a business, profit is the ultimate goal, the next 2-3 years must be from the original simple focus on scale to high-quality development, scale and quality both improved. If you want to make a profit, you still have to pay more attention to product quality and brand yourself, and pursue value and brand positioning to bring consumers a better experience, rather than blindly grabbing the cake and "killing" it.
Wu BaojunLosses must be abnormal, everyone calls them new forces, but the model has not yet run out. The electric car or smart electric car or smart car made by the new forces is the meaning of substitute in marketing, since you want to replace it, it must be better than it, and cheaper.
Now the cheap ** has done it, but the good experience has not yet been felt, such as the cost of taking a taxi a month, or the cost of buying a car?Is it expensive to buy a house, or is it expensive to stay in a hotel every day?Obviously, the cost of taking a taxi is much lower than the cost of buying a car, so why would consumers want to buy a car?For consumers to be willing to pay for new energy vehicles, new experiences must be brought.
Xia YipingThis industry is inherently bitter, unlike the Internet with a gross profit of several percent. We entered the market relatively late, did not enjoy subsidies, and could only rely on product power or brand power to fight. Recently, some people have communicated with me that they want to reduce prices and lose money to grab the market, and I am very hesitant about this. BBA can now sell 50,000 units per month, and the outside space is quite large, and everyone is "involuting". Why is it that their car experience is obviously worse than ours, and they can still sell it more expensive than us?Instead of thinking about how to lose more and involution more, it is better to think about how to improve the brand and service. Let's not just earn 20% gross profit from selling BOM, but get more revenue from selling brands and services.
I have to admire Qin Lihong for this, they have been insisting on doing brands and services for such a long time, and they can really get the brand recognition and service recognition from the hearts of users, and there are so many user fans who understand and support them.
Qin LihongThe "card" that is afraid of being shuffled is not a good "card", and the enterprise must have such confidence and attitude. I think that such a large industry and the main body of the world's largest number of new companies are in China, which shows that our technology accumulation, business environment, and innovation ability are enough. In the last round of the *** revolution, all the new companies were in the United States, what are we doing?We're watching other people be lively, it's none of our business. Today's situation is that China is the most leading and powerful in the world.
Lu FangAlthough the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached about 40% this year, there are still 60% that have not been won. In the future, it may take ten years to replace all the cars owned in China, and the market space in China is large enough.
Deng ChenghaoCompetition can make this industry grow better. After this round of "reshuffle" in the automobile industry, I think it will usher in high-quality development. I have always told the team to pursue the most cost-effective path for the entire input-output and the opportunity for us to survive in this round of competition.
Wu BaojunAlthough we call cars "passenger cars", more than 75% of people are supposed to be drivers. How to really turn into a passenger car?I think that's the biggest "shuffle", and I like the name New Forces because it's part of the drive for change.
Xia YipingNot only competition, but also how to grasp this opportunity in the process of reshaping and transforming the entire industrial chain for all enterprises in the future.
The above three topics are all in line with the focus of social attention, and every car company has responded positively. Competitors all sat down to discuss common topics, and they all mentioned that competition can make the industry better. Since the beginning of this year, the automotive industry has been "quite unstable", and just recently, BYD has also hung a red 5 million to collect "** near the end of the year, and the ** war has continued to increase. In this industry, in fact, there is a great need for the awareness of sitting down and communicating together, inclusiveness and sharing.