Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that China Securities Construction Investment released a research report saying that in 2023, there will be oversupply in the lithium battery industry and downward pressure on lithium prices, and industry investment will focus on the terminal vehicle and parts link;Looking forward to 2024, the core of the process of breaking through the penetration rate of downstream links to 50% is to reflect the characteristics of "the next generation of fuel vehicles", and the key is intelligence and fast charging, which is the most important technical direction next yearThe bottom of lithium carbonate in the midstream link will be the decisive factor for the recovery of the industrial chain to the growth rate and stability of the industry, and pay attention to the opportunities of the main industrial chain after the utilization rate bottoms out in 24Q1In terms of theme, focusing on the volume of key models and robots may bring more elasticity than expected.
The main views of CSC are as follows:
2023 review: the pattern deteriorates and the downside is superimposed
*In terms of performance: In 2023, the oversupply and the downward pressure of lithium prices will show a double kill situation as a whole, and the growth rate of the main industrial chain will be lower than that of downstream vehicles and parts. From the perspective of absolute income, parts and vehicles have significant advantages, the lithium battery industry relies on the pattern and stable profitability to lead, and the pressure on the cathode and lithium ore is the most damaged link in the downward trend of lithium prices.
The company's business side:In 2023, the profitability of parts and components will be stable, the two-level differentiation of the vehicle will be significant, and the overall operation of the lithium battery industry chain will be under pressure, especially in the first quarter of 2023, subject to factors such as downward pressure on processing fees + sharp decline in raw materials + capacity utilization rate in the off-season, the growth rate of some links will not be as fast as that of the industry, and the profit will be lost Negative electrode, positive electrode, electrolyte and other lithium-containing links processing fee + inventory double killing.
Outlook for 2024: industry demand is still strong, lithium prices determine the bottom, offNote the opportunity of a strong industrial chain
The core of the process of breaking through the penetration rate of downstream links to 50% is to reflect the characteristics of "the next generation of fuel vehicles", and the key is intelligent and fast charging, which is the most important technical direction next year. The midstream sector is expected to have 17.64 million new energy vehicles and batteries in 2024 1519GWh, a year-on-year increase of +25% +30%, from the perspective of supply and demand, most links will enter the most surplus stage in the first quarter of 2024 (mainly the off-season of demand), and then gradually improve (this year's new projects under construction will decline significantly corresponding to the limited release of production capacity next year), and it is expected that supply and demand will be relatively balanced in 2025. Looking back at the history, we judge that the stability of lithium prices is the decisive factor for the recovery of midstream volume to the growth rate of the industry and the stability of profits, and we judge that it may be around the first quarter of 2024, based on the rhythm of lithium supply release and its expectation of demand.
The theme is that the volume of key models, robots, and new lithium battery technologies may bring more elasticity than expected, and the core concerns are:1) The flexibility of the industrial chain of benchmarking enterprises;2) The market space brought by the first year of the industry's expansion.
Investment Advice:The main chain recommends batteries and structural parts with strong profitability certainty, seriously damaged cathodes and electrolytes, and it is recommended to pay attention to subdivided economic tracks such as charging piles and composite foilsFocus on industrial chain investment opportunities such as robots, intelligent driving, and high-voltage fast chargingCore Concerns:1) The flexibility of the industrial chain of benchmarking enterprises;2) The market space brought by the first year of the industry's expansion.
Risk Warning:1) The production and sales of downstream new energy vehicles are less than expected: the sales side may be affected by weak demand and fall short of expectationsThe output side may be affected less than expected by large fluctuations in upstream raw materials** and power rationing, which in turn will affect the profitability and valuation of the industrial chain. 2) Raw material fluctuation risk: Since 2021, there have been large fluctuations in raw materials, and instability has a certain impact on merchant procurement and terminal demand, and has a greater impact on the profitability of companies related to the industrial chain. 3) The promotion of key projects in the lithium battery industry chain is less than expected: the promotion of key projects is the key to supporting revenue and profits of related companies, and it is also a reflection of growth.