Zhitong Finance and Economics learned,China Securities Construction Investment released a research report saying that the shipment and penetration rate of Mini LED backlight TVs are growing rapidly,Its technology has picture quality and cost advantages,And there is still considerable room for cost reduction,It is expected to continue to increase in the future。 The core of Mini LED backlight area light control technology lies in the backlight board, the cost of backlight module accounts for more than 50%, and many manufacturers have entered this field, so the industrial chain has been reshaped, integration and concentration have been improved, and the upstream and midstream leaders will benefit from the development of Mini LED technology.
Among them, the chip-end manufacturing follows the traditional LED process, and with the increase in the penetration rate of Mini LED and becoming a key competitive factor in the industry, the head effect and profitability improvement appearPackaging The module side continues to be optimized and upgraded, and the value of Mini LED backlight modules has increased significantly.
The main views of CSC are as follows:
The penetration rate of Mini LED has increased, and the technology and cost have advantages. In 2023, the scale of global Mini LED TVs will increase against the trend, and the penetration rate will rise to close to the level of OLED TVs, becoming the mainstream high-end technology. 1) Technical advantages: Mini LED backlight is an improved version of the traditional LED backlight, the backlight layer is the key component, which can achieve high contrast through fine partitioning, present the ultimate image quality, and also have advantages in weight and response speed;2) Cost advantage: Mini LED backlight can use the existing LCD production line, so the panel and depreciation cost is smaller, the cost structure is more dispersed, and the cost is mainly concentrated in the backlight module, of which the cost of LED chip accounts for 15% 20%, PCB accounts for 30% 35%, driver IC accounts for 30% 45%, cost reduction space and logic is clear, the cost of Mini LED backlight in the TV field will decrease by 30% per year in the next three years, and the final cost is at most 20% more than LED backlight.
Mini LED reshapes the industrial chain, and the upstream and midstream leaders continue to benefit. The core of Mini LED backlight area light control technology lies in the backlight board, and many manufacturers have entered this field, so the integration and concentration of the industrial chain have been improved. 1) Chip: Mini LED chip manufacturing follows the traditional LED process, and the mature process is expected to promote cost reduction, Mini LED chip ** decreases by about 10% per year, ** Mini micro LED chip output value will reach 9 in 2026$8.1 billion, with a CAGR of 20.0 billion for 2021-202631%；At present, the concentration and profit margin of Mini LED chips are high, and with the increase of Mini LED penetration rate and becoming a key competitive factor in the industry, the competitive landscape and the industry position of leading enterprises have been further consolidated. 2) Packaging module: the current Mini LED backlight is mainly based on POB and COB packaging, and COB is expected to become the mainstream packaging method of Mini LED in the future, and the value of Mini LED backlight module is increased, and the value of a single unit is about ten times higher than that of traditional LED, and the cost is mainly PCB substrate and driver IC, and the future cost reduction route is clear, and it is expected that the output value of Mini LED backlight board will reach 49 in 2026$4.2 billion, 2515%；Due to the improvement of technical and financial barriers to mini LED packaging modules, the priority layout of leading manufacturers is expected to benefit.
Investment Advice:1) We believe that in the early stage of the Mini LED penetration rate increase, the performance elasticity of the midstream enterprises in the industrial chain is more significant, the current Mini LED backlight market share has reached 30%, and the future penetration rate and shipments are expected to continue to increase highly. 2) In the middle and late stages of the Mini LED penetration rate increase, the revenue and profit proportion of Mini LED backlight TVs with high gross profit margins continue to increase, and the product structure, revenue scale, and profit margin of downstream TV manufacturers are expected to continue to be optimized, and they are optimistic about the development prospects of domestic leading brands.
Risk Warning:Terminal demand is less than expected, technology cost reduction is less than expected, and competition in the industrial chain is intensifying.