More exciting articles: The Federal Reserve's collective "fire extinguishing" has restrained the upward pace.
Under the super bull market of U.S. stocks, bears are suffering heavy losses. According to the latest data from short-selling research firm S3 Partners, as of December 18, short-selling investors have accumulated losses of nearly $178 billion during the year.
The United States and Europe are different from the domestic market, there is a relatively perfect short-selling mechanism, so the zero-sum game phenomenon in the United States and European markets is also more prominent, so it is not a super bull market to come, the majority of investors are making money, because there is always no shortage of short-sellers in the market, in fact, in the long-term super bull market process, there are a considerable number of short-selling institutions and investors have suffered heavy losses.
Under the premise that the United States and Europe are at historical highs and the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, will investors choose to go short or long?Most of the Fed's previous aggressive interest rate hikes will bring crises to **, and some of the crises tend to fall sharply**, or even go bankrupt and delisted, and it is easy to make huge profits in the short and medium term. There has never been a shortage of financial giants looking for opportunities to short in the US and European markets, and Soros and others in the past are among the representatives.
However, after this round of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the market continued to bullish, in the process of leveraged gambling, some bears were forced to close or liquidate, and the liquidation of the shorts made the stock index exceed market expectations, so the background of the United States and Europe is not only the result of the flood of liquidity in the new crown crisis, but also the result of financial derivatives gambling, and the latter obviously exaggerated the valuation of the United States and Europe, and the zero-sum game makes the valuation of the United States stocks more and more mismatched with its economy, making it further bubble.
In the U.S. market, there are many people who warn about asset bubbles, from economists, Wall Street bigwigs to senior traders, etc., but these voices are swallowed up by the expansion of asset bubbles in the United States, the reason is that the rise and fall of the United States is mainly supported by asset bubbles, whether it is U.S. bonds, dollars, financial derivatives system, U.S. welfare system, U.S. multinational company valuation, etc. are all built on this financial bubble, so the Federal Reserve, the United States** The U.S. Treasury Department has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. economy will have a soft landing, because the U.S. stock market is indeed too big to fail, and now it is affecting the whole body, and if the U.S. stock market falls this time, the history of the United States may be rewritten.
After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of two important financial derivatives markets in the United States, the CDS (Credit Default Swap) market and the CDO (Secured Debt Debt Certificate) market, which only gradually recovered after years of bull market in the United States, shows how difficult it is for the market to repair credit.
Once this asset bubble bursts, the truth about the proportion of U.S. debt to U.S. GDP will be completely revealed, the dollar will be hit hard, and at the same time, U.S. companies and small and medium-sized banks will collapse on a large scale, and if the U.S. wants to monetize the crisis again, the result will be that the U.S. debt system will become more and more unstable, and credit will decline sharply, and the consequences are self-evident.
The question is, can U.S. stocks with the aura of the world's major highest valuation be forever?As of December 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 256 times, with a price-to-book ratio of 66 times;The NASDAQ has a price-to-earnings ratio of 428 times, with a P/E ratio of 56 times;The S&P 500 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x and a price-to-book ratio of 44 times. Valuations are much higher than those of other developed countries and even emerging economies, and the price-to-earnings ratios of major European ** are generally within 13 times. The bigger the asset bubble, the stronger its monetary black hole attribute will be, so the United States must continue to provide currency increments, or attract more international investors to the U.S. market to take over, otherwise this asset bubble will be in jeopardy.
Therefore, from the perspective of the U.S. asset bubble and the U.S. economic security, the Fed only prints money, prints money, The problem is that there is no country in the world where the asset bubble can be inflated, so the United States is currently looking for scapegoats everywhere, passing on the debt crisis everywhere, making the world restless, the fundamental reason is that the pressure of the asset bubble is too great, of which the debt bubble bears the brunt. (This article is an original article by Xinyue said finance, **please indicate the author and** in Baijia Xinyue said finance).