2023 is coming to an endRMB exchange rateThe past year has had its ups and downs. From November last year to January this year,RMB exchange rateIt has risen for three months in a rowOffshore RenminbiThe highest rise in January was above 67 mark. However, as the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates in the first half of the year,RMBbegan to depreciate. StillRMBToo much "value" is not good for China's exports, so a series of measures have been taken, including the intervention of the central bank and foreign exchange bureaus. After going through the phase of depreciation,RMB exchange rateIt began to rebound and rose above 7 on December 151 mark. So, for 2024,RMB exchange rateWhether it will rise above 7 depends mainly on the Fed'sMonetary policyand ChinaEconomysituation.
When it comes to:RMB exchange rateWhether it will rise above 7, we cannot ignore external factors, especially the United StatesMonetary policy。As a major in global**, investment and financingCurrency, the strength of the dollar will lead to other countriesCurrencydepreciation, and vice versa, may bring opportunities for appreciation. And the strength of the dollar depends on the Fed'sMonetary policy。CurrentCurrencyThe tightening cycle has been going on for a year and a half, and if the Fed decides to ease policy, the dollar will lose its strong position, includingRMBamong othersCurrencyThere will be some room for appreciation. According to Fed members**, the policy rate is expected to be 46%, which means that interest rates may be cut next year. If the Fed pivots to accommodative policy,RMBThe likelihood of breaking 7 will increase significantly.
In addition to external factors,domestic economyThe trend is also rightRMB exchange rateMake a big impact. China's GDP growth in 2023 has reached the target set at the beginning of the year, especially driven by consumption, foreign trade and investmentEconomic growthof the troika. Next year's goals and the actual situation will be rightRMBhas an important impact. In terms of consumption, food and beverage and car sales are one of the most important factors, and next year's consumption will be determinedRMBof the trend. In terms of foreign trade, the situation with the United States, the world's largest consumer, will become the key. In terms of investment, especially real estate investment, will be the focus of observation next year. The recession of the property market in 2023 has led to a decline in the area of new housing starts and the amount of investment, and whether it can continue to recover needs to be paid attention to. ChinaEconomyThe continued stabilization of will have a direct impactRMBexchange rate.
Overall, in the short term,RMB exchange rateIt will be affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and maintain an upward trend. It is expected in the first half of next yearRMB exchange rateIt is expected to reach a level of less than $7 per $1. However, in the long term, in 2024RMBWhether it can rise above 7 still depends on ChinaEconomyThe actual development situation is accurately judged. EconomyThe improvement will attract more foreign capital to flow into China, promotingRMBappreciation. At the same time, the first can subsidize the increase in costs caused by exchange rate appreciation by increasing the export regression, so as to cope with the negative impact of appreciation on exports. So, in 2024RMB exchange rateThe trend will be influenced by the United StatesMonetary policyand ChinaEconomyThe dual impact.
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