The United States has been persuading China not to sell US bonds, and it is better to increase its holdings.
But what is infuriating is that our holdings of U.S. bonds have increased, and on the other side, there has been a continuous sell-off of RMB bonds held by overseas institutions.
What does this mean?
After an interval of 8 months, China has increased its holdings of US bonds again, so why should it lend money to the US again?
The size of the U.S. national debt reached 31$4 trillion, there is already a risk of default, as it standsIf no agreement is reached in the next two weeks to raise the ceiling on U.S. debt, there is a good chance that the U.S. debt will default in June.
This time the U.S. debt is a bit like the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and I don't know if the U.S. will be able to solve the debt problem this year
At present, the financial sector in the United States is in crisis, with a number of bank failures in succession, and judging from the situation released by the Federal Reserve, the balance sheets of many commercial banks have shown large floating losses.
The U.S. hopes to push up U.S. debt by persuading China to increase its holdings of U.S. debt.
Well, this is good news for Bank of AmericaBecause their previous holdings of U.S. bonds have a large **, if ** recovers, the loss margin will be greatly reduced.
Now it looks like things are going in the direction that the United States wants.
But is it true that because China has increased its holdings of U.S. bonds, will the ** of U.S. bonds rise?
In fact, the Americans are likely to reverse this causal relationship.
After analyzing the data provided by the US Treasury, we found that the top 10 holders of US bonds suddenly increased their holding balances.
Did everyone suddenly decide to ** US debt together?This kind of thinking is tantamount to a dream.
The only explanation is that the U.S. bond was increased in March, so the increase in the balance of U.S. bonds held by China is not an active increase, but a helpless passive increase.
It is obviously impossible to hope for a large and lasting ** US debt in China, and even other countries are unlikely.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States imposed a series of economic sanctions on Russia, all of which are showing their so-called "contract spirit", all for their own selfishness.
This led to an instant collapse of trust between them, and now many people have begun to suspect that the United States may treat its debt in a way that is in debt.
All countries in the world have realized that they should gradually withdraw from assets such as the dollar and US bonds, after all, no one can guarantee that they will not become a second Russia.
On the other hand, the Fed has raised interest rates frantically to curb inflation, but with little success.
April's CPI data has fallen back to 49%, but there is still a gap between the 2% expectation. So it's very likely that the Fed will raise interest rates again in June.
With the collapse of UBS, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank and other banks, everyone knows that the US economy is on the verge of collapse and that the possibility of a default on US debt will only grow.
But on the other hand, we also see that by the end of April, the total amount of Chinese bonds held by foreign institutions was 317 trillion yuan decreased by 30 billion compared with the previous month, compared with 3Compared to 5 trillion yuan, it is a significant decrease of 330 billion yuan.
Is this a sell-off of Chinese bonds by foreign institutions?
The current situation seems that there is no outflow of funds, so it is very likely that foreign-funded institutions are adjusting their investment structure, reducing the proportion of bonds and increasing the proportion of assets such as **.
This is consistent with the continuous bullish rhetoric of a number of Wall Street giants who are optimistic about China's economy.
It seems that there may be some misunderstandings in the market about China's so-called increase in US bonds or the so-called sell-off of Chinese bonds by foreign investors.
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