Stay cautious and focus on opportunities in local themes or individual stocks

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-29

Changsha Evening News, Changsha, December 15 (Reporter Zhou Congxiao) ** rose and fell throughout the day, the three major indexes were all small**, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 737 billion, and the northbound funds were net **34 throughout the day6.3 billion yuan. Overall, there are more than 2,900 stocks in the whole market, and the utility sector is strong against the trendThe concept of state-owned enterprise reform continues to be active;The media sector is strong;**In terms of mixed reality, multimodal AI, Huawei automotive, food and beverage and other sectors were among the top decliners.

On the news side, Li Yunze, director of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, presided over a meeting of the Party Committee (Enlarged) on the 13th, which required that the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions be promoted in an orderly manner to avoid "one size fits all";Meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination;Cooperate with the resolution of the risk of existing local debts, and strictly control new debts. Since December 15, Shanghai has adjusted the standard of ordinary housing and optimized the differentiated housing credit policy. The policy is clear, the minimum down payment for the first housing commercial loan shall not be less than 30%, and the lower limit of the loan interest rate shall be adjusted to not be less than the corresponding term LPR minus 10 basis points;In the Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative regions of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan, differentiated policies will be implemented, and the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial loans for second housing will be adjusted to not less than the LPR of the corresponding term plus 20 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio will be adjusted to not less than 40%.

In terms of institutional views, China Securities Construction Investment believes that the current market expectations have been adjusted to a low level, but the upward catalyst is insufficient, which is in line with the characteristics of the bear-bull transition period. Looking forward to the later stage, if the policy can be carried out as scheduled, the sectors that benefit from the direction of the steady growth policy are also expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities, the market sentiment is switched, and the allocation of call option thinking (brokers) + industrial cycle certainty upward (technology + intelligent driving) may be expected to usher in a relatively stronger relative income performance.

In addition, pay attention to the varieties that performed relatively strongly during the last fall and have follow-up support for the prosperity at the molecular end, which may be the first to get out of the bottom and become the main force leading the rise. At the level of industry allocation, the dividend strategy may still prevail in the process of market confidence declining again, but further looking forward to the later stage, if the policy can be carried out as scheduled and the market sentiment can be switched, the allocation of call option thinking (brokerage) + industrial cycle certainty upward (technology + intelligent driving) may usher in a relatively stronger relative income performance. Recently, the direction of science and technology has been catalyzed frequently, with the launch of Google's Gemini multi-modal large model and overseas PIKA 10 and other popular applications appear;In terms of data, the public data ** guiding pricing management measures will be implemented soon, and the circulation of data elements is expected to be substantially acceleratedThe real estate chain sector, which has benefited from the direction of the steady growth policy, is also expected to usher in valuation repair opportunities. Varieties that performed relatively strongly during the last fall and have follow-up support for the prosperity of the molecular end may be the first to get out of the bottom and become the main force leading the rise.

Wang Zhenhuai, chief investment adviser of the Yangtze River ** Hunan Branch, said that on the market yesterday, the energy direction was collectively strengthened, of which the coal and power sectors were among the top gainers. On the news side, the process of large-scale rain and snow in the central and eastern parts of China has entered its peak, and there will be heavy snowstorms or extraordinarily heavy snowstorms in Huanghuai and other places, and the snowfall in some areas has a certain extreme. Affected by the cold wave, the terminal coal heating demand continued to improve marginally, giving the market coal a certain amount of support. At the same time, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in November, China imported 4,350 coal60,000 tons, an increase of 1,119 over the same period last year30,000 tons, the second highest level this year, a year-on-year increase of 346%;This is an increase of 751 from October this year40,000 tons, an increase of 209%。From a market perspective, the strength of the energy sector is, on the one hand, independent of its own logicOn the other hand, the controlling shareholders of a number of high-quality coal companies have recently released plans to increase their shareholdings, demonstrating their confidence, and the high dividends of the coal sector under low capital expenditure are attractive.

Wang Zhenhua said that on the first day, the market rose and fell throughout the day, and the three major indexes closed down again across the board, and the volume of energy shrank further, hitting a new low in nearly 2 months. On the technical side, the Shanghai Composite Index daily MACD turned downward again, KDJ once again faced a dead fork, and the short-term index still has the momentum to bottom out. In the afternoon, the internal disagreement of high-level theme stocks intensified, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the spread of the market's money-losing effect to the high-level stocks as a whole, resulting in the re-collapse of the capital group. In response, we should remain cautious and focus on local themes or opportunities. The views are for reference only, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

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