Tesla s electric pickup Cybertruck is not a sellout

Baker Street Detective

Author: Lu Zhenxi.

Gimmick or innovation, time will tell.

But according to a survey by the Canaccord Genuity team, 67% of respondents answered "no" to buy a Cybertruck, while 33% answered "yes" after the release of the 100 Helpers Program and the truck's performance. Based on the results of the Canaccord Genuity survey alone, I believe most people will think that the Cybertruck seems to be quite groundbreaking, butIt is not fully recognized by the market

After a short fermentation after the news release, Tesla's stock price fell again and again, bearish on TeslaThinks the price of a car over $60,000 is too high, sales will not be too good for the majority;Another view is that of the CybertruckProduction capacity will not be increased in the short term, which is also an important consideration for limiting sales upswing.

Because the Cybertruck replaces stamping machinery with molded metal sheets, the transformative process means that Tesla needs to re-invest in manufacturing equipment, but it hasn't been proven at scale since Tesla released the process in 2019.

What's more, in the years since Tesla developed the Cybertruck, the U.S. electric pickup truck market has long since changed, for exampleFord's F-Series pickup truckIn 2022, a total of 63 were sold690,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 197%。Ford's F-150 Lightning can travel 230 to 320 miles on a single charge, which is comparable to the Cybertruck's range of 250 to 340 miles, and the base model is priced at $49,995, which is significantly lower than the Cybertruck.

Therefore, considering the Cybertruck from the basic performance aspect, it is obviously not enough to make the Cybertruck the second growth curve of Tesla Motors, especially in the context of the insufficient utilization rate of Tesla's new communism, resulting in a gross profit margin falling below 18% and a net profit decline of 44% in the third quarter of 2023.

But in reality, the Cybertruck's market acceptance has far exceeded previous expectationsThe company's stock price also fell less than 2% from before the Cybertruck's launch.

Although the Cybertruck is later on the market than Ford's electric pickup truck, and the results of the Canaccord Genuity survey show that more than 60% of respondents are not considering buying the Cybertruck, according to third-party data provided by Tesla, at presentThe cumulative order book for the Cybertruck has already exceeded 2 million units

It is easy to understand, after all, the Cybertruck not only has the tough characteristics of an American pickup, but also is fully empowered by new energy and intelligent technology, especially its high-tech and futuristic exterior design is eye-catching, and most importantly, the American pickup truck market is indeed more inclusive.

In 2022, global pickup truck sales were 5.65 million units, with more than half sold in North America, in particular, the U.S. accounts for about half of the world's total sales. Since 2018, the overall sales of cars in the United States have been under pressure, but the sales of pickup trucks in the United States market are still bright, with annual sales hovering around 3 million units, and the proportion of sales has increased from 16 in 20187% steadily increased to 190%。

From the brand side,Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado and Dodge RAMand other brands of pickup trucks occupy a significant share of the U.S. market, and the sales proportion in 2022 is respectively. 3%。

The Cybertruck was born with a competitive differentiation approachThe Cybertruck uses ultra-hard cold-rolled stainless steel 30X material from the same source as the SpaceX rocket shell to make the body, which is very hard and durable, which can alleviate the problem of dents, damage and corrosion caused by long-term use of the vehicle's surface, especially in the case of 9mm caliber bullets, which can still ensure that the door is not penetrated, which is very important for the free Americalika, which makes its payload of up to 2500 pounds (about 1135kg), far exceeding that of the F-150 Lightning's 1,000-pound traction (11,000 pounds, about 5 tons) looks less dazzling.

At the same time, the body of the Cybertruck adopts the "exoskeleton" design, which does not require the support of the frame, and only relies on the force of the outermost layer to meet the requirements of body strength and safety. In addition, the Cybertruck armor glass is very strong and can withstand the impact of a baseball or a level 4 hail at a speed of 112 km/h.

Performance, Cybertruck Beast Edition 000 km/h acceleration time is only 2In 7 seconds, it takes less than 11 seconds to travel 1 4 miles (about 402 meters), and it is able to outperform the Porsche 911 while towing a Porsche 911.

Since the Cybertruck can adjust the steering wheel steering force according to the wheel speed, the turning radius will be smaller than that of the models, making it easier to driveThe electronic adaptive air suspension provides 305mm of motion and 432mm of ground clearance, making it flexible to cope with a variety of road conditionsThe center of gravity is very low, and there will be no rollover.

In terms of intelligent cockpit, the soundproof glass equipped with the Cybertruck provides a quiet space for the cockpit, which cooperates with the "front row 185 inches + rear equipped with 9A 4-inch" touchscreen, 15 speakers (including 2 dedicated subwoofers and distributed amplifiers) provide users with a "cinema-like experience", a wireless mobile phone charging pad, 65WUSB-C port and 120V 240V sockets, which can be comfortably charged in the front seats, rear seats or cargo compartment without worrying about entertainment power outages. In addition, Tesla claims that the cockpit is equipped with a medical-grade HEPA high-efficiency air filtration system, which can effectively filter 9997% airborne particles.

As an electric pickup truck, the performance of the Cybertruck is enough to see, and it seems that the only thing that can limit the sales of the Cybertruck at the moment is production capacity.

According to the company's third-quarter financial report,Tesla's existing capacity utilization rate is not highGenerally speaking, the production capacity of a manufacturing enterprise is insufficient, first, the downstream demand plummets, and the existing production line is partially suspended;Second, the production capacity of enterprises has been greatly expanded, and the capacity utilization rate needs to be improved. The former means that the company has officially entered the slope, and the latter means that the company is in a period of rapid development, and coincidentally, Tesla belongs to the latter.

Looking back at Tesla's production capacity changes, in 2015-2017, the acquisition target may be to ensure the mass production of automobiles, because Tesla has encountered the model 3 production capacity dilemma, since 2015, Tesla has focused on ensuring mass production technology, and in 2016, it has successively acquired Grohmann Engineering (a company specializing in making machines, ensuring equipment for Tesla**) and Perbix (mass production and automation company) to effectively solve this problem.

Tesla then focused its acquisitions on battery manufacturers, and at Battery Day 2020, Tesla officially announced that it would start producing new batteries on its own, indicating that it is focusing on battery technology innovation.

In terms of vehicle production capacity, Tesla's first factory is its Fremont** plant in California, USA, where the first Model S came from. The first overseas factory was:Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, mainly for Model 3 and Model Y;The 2022 Gigafactory Berlin is Tesla's first Gigafactory in Europe and is mainly used for the Model Y;The other three are located in Texas, Nevada and New York, and are responsible for vehicle manufacturing, battery packs and charging stations, and rooftop solar, respectively. Tesla's vehicle production capacity continues to expand, and according to Tesla's plan, the planned production capacity of six factories will reach 4.4 million units, and the production capacity will reach 137 by 202230,000 units.

At this stage, Tesla's production capacity expansion is relatively smooth, and a complete sales system has been established, with lithium batteries as the power core, charging piles to provide charging services, vehicle production with the help of the construction of super factories, construction of direct experience stores to promote test drives and sales, and the use of service centers to carry out delivery and after-sales.

With the support of this complete system, Tesla's gross profit margin has always been much higher than that of competing companies, which is about 2 times that of ideal, about 4 times that of Xpeng, and about 3 times that of fuel car companies such as Ford and ToyotaIn the future, once Tesla achieves a production capacity of 4.4 million vehicles, the company's large-scale effect will continue to amplify, and the company's integrated die-casting technology will continue to mature, the production process will be shorter, and Tesla's gross profit per vehicle is expected to be further improved.

This is also to support Tesla in the new energy vehicle market to take the lead in the first battle, the company's previous launch of the "grand plan", the main purpose is to "price for volume", to get more market share, the main model is Model 3.

After years of iteration, the Model 3 range (CLTC) has been increased from 445 km in 2019 to 554 km. This is mainly due to the continuous improvement of Tesla's standard battery life and battery cost, which has been replaced by lithium iron phosphate with lower energy density and shorter battery life.

However, while the battery life is improving, Tesla has compromised on the performance indicators such as the maximum speed, zero hundred, and motor power of the model3, and the outside world believes that this is because there are fewer domestic unrestricted speeds and more urban application scenarios, but in fact, it is the inevitable result of Tesla's lazinessIts product positioning has also changed from the early "driver's car" to "family car".

Even its other main sales model, the Model Y,Tesla has also launched a scaled-down version of the Model Q in an attempt to further increase its market share。It's worth noting that the Model Q is only half as expensive to produce as the Model 3 Y, and the price has plummeted to $2$50,000 (about 180,000 yuan), although it is still in the concept car stage, Tesla's top-down development strategy has been completely formed.

In order to further reduce manufacturing costs, Tesla has made great efforts in integrated die casting, and in the past few years, Tesla's integrated die casting capacity has been increased from 6,000 tons of mold-locking die casting machines for Model Y to 9,000 tons for CybertrucksWhen it comes to the mass production of Model Q, its integrated die-casting level may be further improved, and Musk also released a bold statement that the final number of models may exceed 700 million units, competitor Volkswagen ID3. Renault 5, MG ZS, BYD ATTO 3 and other models are not as good as the horse.

Combined with the company's recent release of the Cybertruck,Tesla's model research and development has a trend of "polarization", low-cost models win by volume, and ** models win by high gross profit margin, with the company's large-scale advantages, to achieve stable profit growth.

In this way, although the official delivery of the Cybertruck is not as "subversive the industry" as advertised by the outside world, it is enough to promote the integration and iteration of the industrial chain again, and the Model Q launched in the future will also participate in this iteration of the industrial chain. As for whether they can cooperate with each other to improve Tesla's performance as Musk thinks, the answer is only time to know.

© the end

This article is only used as a sharing Xi and does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is written by:Baker Street DetectiveOriginal, without permission, do not**.