The ups and downs of the wheat market have always been the focus of market attention. In the first half of this year, wheat was three times**, and the market was in trouble. However, the arrival of a heavy rain reversed the trend of wheat, which rose again to more than 3,000 yuan. However, there has been unfavorable news in the market recently, and wheat has once again shown a trend, and the momentum has been difficult to maintain. So, why did wheat suddenly not rise?From the perspective of market demand, the market believes that the rise in wheat is due to weak demand. But in reality, weak demand is not a recent problem, it has always existed. The market has previously ignored this issue, mainly because of the quality of wheat, the rise in market sentiment, the stockpiles of flour companies and dealers, and the reality of demand being obscured. At the same time, the market has strong expectations for subsequent wheat consumption, and it is generally believed that consumption will recover in the second half of the year, especially by the end of the year, flour consumption will rise, which will boost wheat demand. However, by the end of November, flour consumption was still sluggish, and this demand shortcoming was exposed.
Judging from the situation of wheat itself, although wheat has been ** many times, the increase is limited. Since the wheat harvest, it has experienced many times, but each time it rose to a certain height, it encountered great resistance, and several times it failed to break through 1The high point of 6 yuan catty, repeated defeats. In fact, there are early signs of why wheat is not rising. There have been quality differences in wheat this year, with tens of millions of tonnes of unripe wheat also appearing, and before corn hit the market, unripe wheat dominated the feed market, stealing feed demand for wheat. At the same time, the amount of wheat imported this year has reached a new high. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rapid development of international wheat, coupled with the fact that Russia's exports of wheat have fallen again and again in order to increase grain exports, has further lowered the center of international wheat. With the prominence of the advantages of imported wheat, China has also accelerated the pace of wheat imports. To sum up, the reason why wheat is not rising is not only a problem of sluggish demand, but also due to multiple problems in wheat itself.
Weak market demand has exposed shortcomings, and quality differences and increased quantities of imported wheat have adversely affected the momentum of wheat. Therefore, the wheat market needs to look at multiple angles to find solutions to the problem. As the amount of wheat imported by China exceeded 10 million tons, there have been some changes in the market. Although the amount of inflow for food is not large, the demand for forage-grade wheat has risen, especially when the green and yellow crops are scarce, and a large amount of imported wheat flows into the feed market, crowding out the demand for domestic wheat. At the same time, the quality divergence of wheat has also had an impact on the market, leading to a rise in bullish sentiment and at one point fueling speculation. However, from a rational point of view, although the quality of wheat has declined and the output has declined this year, there is no shortage of wheat in the market. When sentiment subsides, the oversupply becomes apparent. The changes and trends of the wheat market are affected by a variety of factors, among which quality, yield, imports and other factors play a certain role.
In this case, investors may wish to understand the changes and trends of the wheat market from the following aspects. First of all, the quality of wheat this season is more differentiated, and the market demand for high-quality wheat is still strong. This also reflects the relative tension of high-quality grain sources, so the future of wheat is still worth looking forward to. Secondly, the wheat market is in a state of oversupply, but with the further increase in high-quality grain sources, wheat is still expected. In this process, we should pay attention to grasp market changes and scientifically analyze the market situation to obtain better returns. In addition, for wheat producers, it is necessary to pay attention to optimizing the production mode and improving the quality and brand effect of wheat to meet the different needs of the market. At the same time, it is also necessary to strengthen marketing, expand market share, and improve market competitiveness. In short, the trend of the wheat market is affected by a variety of factors, but with the further increase of high-quality grain sources, the growth of wheat is still expected.
Therefore, investors should pay attention to market changes and scientifically analyze the market situation to obtain better returns. For wheat producers, it is necessary to continuously optimize the production model, improve product quality and brand effect, and strengthen marketing to maintain market competitiveness.
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