Why do many companies have fallen a lot, but institutions and major shareholders continue to sell? Because the cost of people is much lower than you think!
For example, the company you're going to talk about today-Zerun New Energy.
In August 2022, Zerun New Energy was valued at 7500 million yuan, in December, the valuation is 1 billion yuan. By May of this year, according to the prospectus submitted by the company, the valuation reached 28800 million yuan, close to 30000000000000000000 In less than a year, the valuation has nearly quadrupled.
What is the concept? Theoretically, if the company goes public, even if the stock price falls by half and then by half, people will not lose money when they sell.
Note that this is still a very conservative estimate, assuming that the first day of listing of a new company rises sharply, the cost of ** will be much higher. Let's not forget that the cost of the original majority shareholder of a listed company is lower and almost negligible.
What am I trying to say?
This is not a fair game at all, and the cost between institutional shareholders and major shareholders of the company is completely different. You make money, others make money; If you lose money, others will make money; You lose money, but people still make money.
Therefore, this is also the reason why the market is extremely angry about the practice of raiding shares and slamming valuations before the IPO.
Back to the company of Zerun New Energy.
Founded in March 2017, Zerun New Energy is mainly engaged in the production and sales of photovoltaic module junction box products, which belongs to the subdivision of the photovoltaic industry chain. According to the prospectus, Zerun New Energy plans to raise 7200 million yuan, of which 1100 million yuan is used to supplement liquidity.
However, there are many problems in the company of Zerun New Energy.
In 2022, among the top five customers of Zerun New Energy, the second and third largest customers are TCL Zhonghuan and Maxeon, respectively, accounting for 2352% and 895%。It is important to add that Maxeon is an associate of TCL Central.
In August and December 2022, Xiamen TCL and Tianjin Zhonghuan invested in Zerun New Energy through capital increase, holding a total of 222%。That is to say,Two of the top five customers of Zerun New Energy are related parties that happen to be shareholders of the company.
In this way, there is a suspicion of collusion to do performance.
Of course, one could argue that there is nothing wrong with a major partner taking a stake. But is it reasonable to jerk valuations? In the past two years, the valuation has risen sharply, and the companies in the photovoltaic industry chain, who is not a parent who does not recognize it?
Now let's talk about the most controversial place.
Unit: %
It can be seen that from 2020 to the first half of 2023, the main gross profit margins of Zerun New Energy are. 5% and 2556%，Compared with peer companies, this figure is almost 10 percentage points higher.
As for the reason, the company explains it this way:
It is mainly due to the high gross profit margin of customer A junction box, and after excluding the gross profit margin of customer A junction box, the difference between the average gross profit margin of comparable companies in the same industry has narrowed. ”
However, after excluding Client A, the company said that it "has applied for an exemption from disclosure".
There are two doubts here:
First, photovoltaic is a very cost-conscious industry, why is this customer A willing to buy Zerun New Energy's products at a high premium? Could it be that the company's products are excellent? But the question is, if this is the case, why is it only the customer g who has a high premium?
Second, if you want to become a listed company, if you want to raise funds through an IPO, why hide it? Do you not want the majority of ** to know or the majority of ** do not deserve to know?
Finally, let's go back to the company's finances themselves.
One thing to say, the company's performance itself is outstanding. From 2019 to 2022, Zerun New Energy's operating income will be 1500 million yuan, 29.7 billion and 5200 million yuan; The net profit in the same period was 7.48 million yuan, 37.78 million yuan and 86.4 million yuan respectively.
However, the R&D expense rate is almost meaningless.
From 2020 to the first half of 2023, the R&D expense rates of Zerun New Energy were 7.1 million yuan, 11.19 million yuan, 19.08 million yuan and 14.44 million yuan respectively, accounting for the proportion of operating income respectively. 66% and 349%, showing a downward trend year by year. I have to say that the R&D efficiency is so high that I have to convince it.
The most important thing is the company's cash flow.
From 2019 to 2022, Zerun New Energy's net operating cash flow was 13.87 million yuan, 25.76 million yuan and 30.32 million yuan respectively, with a total net cash ratio of only 53%. In addition, the company's accounts receivable have also increased rapidly, and as of the end of June 2023, this figure is 2500 million yuan. So everyone thinks, will this be a "conspiracy to do a game" to cut leeks?