Putin swore at the first New Year's press conference in the war;Russia has no intention of going to war with NATO.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West's main concern was the risks facing Europe and Russia's broader ambitions. If Russia sweeps through Ukraine, the next step is in **?
When Ukraine's heroic defenses halted Russia's offensive, the West ramped up its military support for Ukraine to ensure that Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine did not escalate into a broader European conflict.
Despite Russia's larger military resources – personnel, equipment, and ammunition – Ukraine (with the support of the West**) has succeeded in pushing Russia back from about 50% of the territory it previously occupied.
However, despite the provision of **, ammunition, training and financial support to Ukraine, Ukraine's much-anticipated spring offensive this summer has not achieved the expected battlefield success.
Zelensky** remains eager to withdraw Russian troops from all occupied territories, but Western concerns about Russia's broader European ambitions have waned.
In the past two years of conflict, Russia has lost more than 2,000 main battle tanks,** more than 300,000 people, and its military power has been severely weakened.
Although Russia can rebuild its army manpower in a relatively short period of time, it will take years, if not decades, for the defense industrial base to produce the tanks, aircraft, missiles, and ammunition needed to conduct another major military operation.
Thus, Russia is no longer the threat it once posed to Europe and NATO. Putin's vow is that in fact this is not a lie, but it is indeed a big word that he wants to be considered a lie.
However, Russia will learn important lessons from its poor battlefield performance, and at least on paper, it should sweep through its opponents with relative ease.
This experience may prove invaluable, and Russia will be rebuilt with modern **, equipment, as well as modified doctrines.
In due course, this could make Russia a more formidable adversary than it was at the start of the conflict in Ukraine, which will be a concern for Western military planners.
Thus, from now on in the short term, Russia loses its military capabilities that pose a significant threat to NATO. Leave aside despite its huge nuclear arsenal.
It also serves as a warning to NATO: this is a short-lived period, and the West would be wise to take advantage of the situation to stifle Russia's ability to rearm and regenerate, especially if Russia's core expansionist ambitions continue.