Recently, a number of international institutions have been awareFederal ReserveIt will start in the first half of 2024Cut interest rates, among othersINGeven broke the newsCut interest ratesThe number of times will reach 6. However, at the same time,Federal ReserveChairmanPowellBut he has continued to express the opposite position, saying that he is speculating at this stageCut interest ratesTimeIt's too early。The controversy and uncertainty behind this have sparked concern in the market, and people are beginning to be full of questions and speculation about the future direction of the dollar. This article will ** this topic and analyze the forces behind it.
Although the European institutions are relatively conservative, argueFederal ReservewillCut interest rates, but think itsCut interest ratesThe amplitude is relatively small, while the European UBS Group andDeutsche Bankand other institutions are more radical to say,Federal ReserveProbably in 2024Cut interest rates175 basis points will be the United StatesFederal** Interest RateThe target range fell back to 35% to 375%. However, Goldman Sachs andMorgan Stanleyand other financial institutions forCut interest ratesRelatively conservative, thinksFederal ReserveIt could start in 2024Cut interest rates, but by a lesser margin. This kindMarketplace**The divergence with the institution's position has sparked heated discussions in the market.
And fromEconomyAccording to the data, although the GDP of the United States in the third quarter reached 52% growth, but some observers believeEconomyThere are already clear signs of cooling. For this, they believe that these agencies may have more information than the average person, probably the United StatesEconomyIt has fallen into recession, so it was madeCut interest ratesTarget**. However, it should be pointed out that this claim is not supported by sufficient evidence and is still a speculation.
AlthoughFederal ReserveChairmanPowellConstantly representedCut interest ratesIt's too early, butCut interest ratesDecisions are not made by their figures in the foreground, but by the big capitalists and chaebols behind them. These forces are more focused on their own interests than necessarily on the survival of the American peopleEconomyof reproduction. Some even speculated,Federal ReserveThe big capitalists behind the council meet before making decisions and then hand over the script to the decisionsPowellLet's put on a show.
In addition, we should also be aware that 2024 is the year of **, and normally, the United States will adopt a moderate interest rate policy in the ** year to avoid irrational effects on popular votes. However, this also gives the big capitalists and big chaebols less influence. Therefore, the 2024 dollarCut interest ratesThe direction will be more complex.
InThe US dollar raises interest ratescycle, the United StatesEconomyThe key factor in sustaining growth is that Biden has taken more than $10 trillionFiscal deficitsPolicy. If interest rate hikes are to continue, they must be aggravated at the same timeFiscal deficitsto keep the United StatesEconomySteady growth. However, ifFiscal deficitsIf it can't be sustained, then the dollar must beCut interest ratesto mitigateEconomyRecessionary pressures.
However, the current situation is more complicated, and the big capitalists and chaebols behind it seem to be more resolute than ordinary people, and they may not beEconomyStop working before a recession. In addition, 2024** will also be an exception for the US dollarCut interest ratesMake an impact.
In short, 2024Federal ReserveWill it beCut interest ratesThere are still a lot of unknowns. AlthoughMarketplace**It is generally accepted that it could happenCut interest rates, but the positions and opinions of different institutions diverged. The big capitalists and big chaebols behind it, rightCut interest ratesof decision-makers have a huge influence, and their interests are often the dominant factor in decision-making. In addition, 2024 is the year of the nation's **, which will also be rightCut interest ratesDecisions bring a certain amount of uncertainty. Therefore, both China and the United StatesEconomyFactors such as the environment and the international situation will be correctFederal Reserve's decisions have an impact.
Faced with such a complex situation, we act as ordinaryInvestmentsshould remain calm and rational, fully understand the policy trend and market dynamics, and ensure their ownInvestmentsDecision-making andRisk management。At the same time, it is also necessary to strengthen theEconomyXi the situation and policies to improve their ownInvestmentsliteracy to better respond to the rapidly changing market environment. Only then will we be able to grasp it betterInvestmentsopportunities to achieve wealth growth.
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