South China SeaSecond Thomas ReefThe development of the incident is becoming more and more intense, and the intervention of the United States and other external forces has made this incident, which was originally only a dispute over territorial waters and sovereignty between China and the Philippines, more complicated. Under the current development trend, we can come up with the following possible outcomes.
The first possibility is that the Philippines will give in to China and take the initiative to drag it away**, but may extort a fee. The Philippines has long used the Philippines to blackmail China, and at the instigation of the United States, it has created disputes in the South China Sea and demanded ill-gotten gains from China. However, this time the scenario is different, and the Philippines has involuntarily fallen victim to the United States and is very likely to suffer a fate similar to that of Ukraine. While Philippine leaders will certainly try to avoid confronting China directly, with the backing of the United States, Japan, and Australia, they are likely to open their mouths and maliciously demand huge sums of money from China.
The second possibility is that China compromises with the Philippines and allows them toSecond Thomas ReefDeliver supplies, but lose control of the reef. However, this probability is very low and almost impossible. Second Thomas ReefThe location is so important that if China owns the reef, it would be stuck in the choke point of the South China Sea, and it can be built into an unsinkable one through land reclamationMilitarybase, forming an island chain with Scarborough Shoal, and strengtheningMilitarydeployment, thereby keeping the United States out of the South China Sea.
The third possibility is a small outbreak on both sidesMilitaryconflict, in the end China won and was completely resolvedSecond Thomas Reefproblems. However, the occurrence of war is extremely unlikely. From a strategic point of view, at present, the United States is adding fuel to the fire and instigating the Philippines to have a conflict with China, which has a larger conspiracy behind it, and it is very likely that they will use the Philippines as a substitute for Ukraine and draw China into the quagmire of war. The United States has been looking for a person like Ukraine in the Asia-Pacific region, and the Philippines is undoubtedly the most suitable role, because it is China's neighbor, has territorial water disputes with China, and is under the command of the United States.
The fourth possibility is that the two sides reach an agreement through consultations to continue the suspension of operations, if the Philippines wants toSecond Thomas ReefThe delivery of materials must be approved by China. This possibility is the greatest, because it currently exists in the South China SeaMilitaryThe power comes from the great powers of the world. In the case of the United States, the Ukrainian issue has not yet been resolved, and in order to avoid fighting on two fronts, it is unlikely that they will clash with China for the Philippines. For China, this is a critical moment in history, and Russia, as an ally of China, is also mired in war, and China is unlikely to take the initiative to go to war with the United States. Therefore, the most likely outcome is to maintain the status quo. However, to maintain the status quo, the two sides must negotiate and reach a consensus that will force the Philippines to agree to any directionSecond Thomas ReefThe delivery of goods must be approved by China.
South China SeaSecond Thomas ReefThe outcome of the incident depends not only on the negotiations between China and the Philippines, but also on the influence of external forces such as the United States. What we can expect is that whatever the eventual outcome of the incident, it will have a significant impact on the situation in the South China Sea. As a world stage, the South China Sea is infinitely variable, and the game between countries is also complex. In many cases, many actions are only means rather than ends, and the wrestling between major powers is even more multifaceted. Therefore, we need to be on the South China SeaSecond Thomas ReefStay vigilant and attentive to the development of events to see how it will end up in the world.
As an editor, I'm interested in the South SeasSecond Thomas ReefThe development of events is worrying. This dispute has not only affected relations between China and the Philippines, but has also involved the intervention of external forces such as the United States. In today's international landscape, the rivalry between major powers is becoming more and more intense, and stability and peace in the South China Sea have become extremely important. I hope that all countries can resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation on an equal footing and jointly safeguard security and stability in the South China Sea. At the same time, we also hope that the international community will pay more attention and concern to the South China Sea issue and provide support and assistance for the peace and development of the region.