Today is January 1st, the first day of 2024. Looking back at the year 2023 that has just ended, the world has been turbulent and eventful, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli war, and the ...... economic turmoilIn 2024, events such as the election of leaders of Russia, the United States, and Taiwan, and the continued divergence of the global economy will follow one after another.
At the end of last month, the Phoenix Focus column launched a ** voting campaign called "Seven Prophecies for 2024", with a total of more than 430,000 people participating. "Seven Prophecies in 2024", who is the first to pay attention?How do experts interpret carding?Will these prophecies come true?
Where is the world order headed in 2024?
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 ranked seventh in terms of attention.
The Palestinian-Israeli battlefield has expanded with nuclear weapons**.
The health department of the Gaza Strip issued a statement saying that as of December 27, 2023, the current round of Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict has begun. Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed at least 21,000 Palestinians and injured more than 50,000. The echoes of traditional Christmas carols and good wishes are overshadowed by the suffering of war, and peace seems out of reach. The land where Jesus was born today bears the scars of violence, hatred, occupation, apartheid and bombing.
In November 2023, Israel's heritage minister, Eliahu, said that dropping nuclear ** on Gaza was "an option". As soon as this remark came out, it caused an uproar.
Turkey** Erdogan said that Israel is not a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons**, and Turkey called on member states to apply to the IAEA in the name of nuclear safety and ask for an inspection of Israel's nuclear ** before it is too late.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
What needs to be worried is whether other Arab countries will also develop nuclear weapons in order to protect themselves because they are stimulated by Israel's possession of nuclear weapons”
The pressure from the international community has not changed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on "fighting to the end". On December 25, 2023, Christmas Day, he published an article in Wall Street** listing three preconditions for peace, including the need to eliminate Hamas and the need to demilitarize Gaza.
Li Yanan, Deputy Director of the Institute of Middle East Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
Israel is a small Middle Eastern country with little strategic depth, and this natural disadvantage determines that it cannot withstand a long-term war of attrition. ”
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
If Israel were to use nuclear weapons against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, then Israel would become a public enemy of the world. ”
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 ranked sixth in terms of attention.
China's property market stopped falling and stabilized.
In 2023, the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market will undergo major changes, and the trend of housing prices will continue to be sluggish16%, the second-hand residential **cumulative **3% in Baicheng, the decline increased by 2 compared with the same period last year45 percentage points, as of November, it has been month-on-month for 19 consecutive months, and the number of cities has exceeded 90 for 6 consecutive months.
Cai Weimin, Director of the Real Estate Operation Research Institute of the Real Estate Research Center of Fudan University:
External reasons, Trump's inauguration and the unprecedented state of the Sino-US game have led to an uncertain economic outlook, which has brought a certain curbing effect on the buying of the property market. Internally, the emigration of industries has caused the middle class to fear unemployment, preferring to save their money rather than buying a house easily. ”
In the face of such a predicament, during the period, various first-class departments frequently optimized the property market, and favorable policies were intensively introduced, and after the implementation of a number of property market policies such as "recognising houses without recognising loans", first-hand housing prices stopped falling and rebounded in September 2023. From December 14, 2023, the down payment ratio and interest rate of housing loans in Beijing and Shanghai will be reduced across the board.
There are tens of millions of mansions in Ande, and living and working in peace and contentment is every Chinese's yearning for a better life. In the annual economic work conference, it was mentioned that "actively and steadily resolving real estate risks" and "accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development" will become the key work of the real estate industry in 2024, and corresponding guidelines and policies will be launched at key nodes to rebuild the confidence of investors and citizens in the real estate market.
Cai Weimin, Director of the Real Estate Operation Research Institute of the Real Estate Research Center of Fudan University:
I believe that in 2024, through the efforts of the first two years, coupled with the end of the Fed's interest rate hike, the next interest rate cut, the cooperation between the two will bring a very big boost to the stabilization and recovery of China's property market. ”
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 ranked fifth in terms of attention.
AI blowout, many industries welcome the wave of unemployment.
Pluto is a robot made by humans, and in the film it is a butler, a pianist, and a warrior, and it has the same ability to deal with problems as humans, which is a typical AI product. In the real world, Musk said that in 2024, the humanoid robot Optimus will work at Tesla's factory. And Amazon Robot Digit is expected to provide services to customers in 2024.
Robots are just the most similar products in artificial intelligence goods, and in 2023, the AI large model represented by ChatGPT will be surging, and generative artificial intelligence will develop rapidly, from computer programs to artworks, from text to images, generative AI systems can quickly produce a series of content, although these contents are not perfect, but have become important tools in some industries and professional fields, and the process of replacing human work with these tools has begun.
Weidong Luo, CEO of a technology company:
GPT can already replace some people's work to a certain extent, but not all, only the part of people who work repetitively. ”
According to the latest report by the Financial Times, the world's 20 largest banks laid off more than 60,000 employees in 2023, the worst year for the banking sector since the financial crisis, and this trend will continue in 2024 amid sluggish trading and listing activity, with the efficient replacement of artificial intelligence as one of the reasons.
Google's Chief AI Advocate Lawrence:
AI won't take your job, but someone who uses AI might take your job. ”
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a new engine of productivity and economic growth, with its powerful ability to process and analyze large amounts of data, it can improve the efficiency and productivity of business operations and further drive economic growth. McKinsey analysis data shows that AI could bring 2.2 percent to the global economy every year6 trillion to 4$4 trillion growth, productivity gains of 01%—0.6%, which is equivalent to contributing one UK GDP per year.
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 ranked fourth in terms of attention.
The U.S. recession has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts.
At its last monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank unanimously decided to maintain the target range of the U.S. federal interest rate at 525 to 5The 5% range was unchanged, the highest level of interest rates since January 2001. Of the eight decisions in 2023, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points four times and left them unchanged in the other.
The Russia-Ukraine war, the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, and the complicated and turbulent world situation have affected the recovery of the world economy in the post-epidemic era, and the United States, as the world's largest economy, has also been affected.
At the beginning of 2023, the market has a pessimistic consensus on the performance of the US economy, and the expectation of a rapid decline in inflation is also relatively conservative. However, the reality was unexpected, with US GDP growth exceeding market expectations, growing by 22%, up 21%, an increase of 49%, not only did there not be a recession, but personal consumption also maintained a sustained strong momentum.
Achim Wan, President of the Center for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany**:
The consequences of high interest rates are bad for investment, bad for start-ups, and high interest rates do damage to the economy. ”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who has been keen to pour cold water on the market, revealed that the Fed has begun to discuss the timing of interest rate cuts. Many, even more, the Fed will have three chances to cut rates this year. According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Organization, the growth rate of the United States will slow to 15%。
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 ranked third in terms of attention.
Russia-Ukraine ceases war around spring?
On the other side of the world, the war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for nearly two years, and the two sides are at loggerheads on the front line.
Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at an expanded meeting of the Ministry of Defense that since the start of the special military operation on the Russian side, there have been more than 380,000 Ukrainian troops**.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for two years, and by the end of 2023 there has been a turning point, and the Russian side has firmly controlled the territory of Ukraine 1 5 that they occupy, that is, most of the Donbass region, especially in some strategic strongholds, which are already completely controlled by Russia. ”
The New York Times said on December 23 that Russia's Putin has secretly signaled through diplomatic channels in recent months to seek to maintain the land he has currently captured, declare victory and cease war. However, it is widely believed that Ukraine will not accept the conditions offered by the Russian side.
Zelensky said in mid-to-late December 2023 that it was impossible to predict when the war between Russia and Ukraine would end, and pointed out that the military had requested an additional mobilization of 450,000 to 500,000 troops to replenish troops, which had not yet been decided. In addition, Zelensky added that this year Ukraine will produce 1 million drones and will also develop 155 mm caliber artillery shells for use by front-line troops.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
The Ukrainian side is now facing great difficulties, on the one hand, the United States and the West their so-called Ukrainian war syndrome has become obvious, especially due to the outbreak of the Israeli-Kazakhstan war, which has greatly diverted the attention of both ** and **, whether it is the United States or the European Union's assistance to Ukraine has been reduced, Ukraine without Western assistance, he will not be able to fight the war. ”
The U.S. Department of Defense announced a new batch of military aid to Ukraine on December 27, 2023, with a total value of 2$500 million, but at the same time noted that the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative has run out of funds, and there is no money to replenish the Ministry of Defense** stockpile. If the US Congress does not approve a new budget, this will be the last batch of military aid to Ukraine.
Teng Jianqun, researcher at the Institute of American Studies, China Institute of International Studies:
By next spring, a ceasefire or truce could be reached. ”
The Seven Prophecies of 2024" ranked second in terms of attention.
Get 880,000 votes, accounting for 20% of the total votes
United States** Trump "makes a comeback".
2024 is a global election year, with more than 70 countries or territories** expected to vote in more than half of the world's population, or about 4 billion people. The British magazine The Economist chose "election" as the key word for looking forward to the global economy in 2024.
Former U.S. ** Trump said at the 2024 U.S. *** campaign rally in Iowa on December 19, 2023 that he came here to win the ** primary.
However, on the same day, the U.S. Supreme Court of Colorado invoked Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, the Insurgency Ban, and ruled that Trump participated in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, and therefore barred him from participating in the local primary. This is the first time a court has ruled that a candidate is ineligible to run in the White House under this clause. A day later, the New York Times reported that at least 16 states were in the midst of legal action challenging Trump's candidacy under the 14th Amendment.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
The political ecology of the United States is very good, and the supporters of the Republican Party and the supporters of the Democratic Party are basically incompatible. The Democrats have used this opportunity to use the law to suppress him, and each crackdown will increase Trump's support. ”
On December 27, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court of Michigan rejected the group's appeal and upheld the eligibility of former Trump to run in the Republican primary in the state.
Although Trump is riddled with lawsuits and dozens of lawsuits, it does not affect his support in the Republican Party by a wide margin, and polls show that he is 5 percentage points ahead of Biden in swing states.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
There is nothing in the law of the United States, if a person is in prison, convicted or even imprisoned, he can still run for election, and he can even be elected**, so it is very likely that there will be a rare miracle in the world in the United States, that is, a convicted prisoner, he was elected**.
The Seven Prophecies of 2024 are the first in terms of attention.
Get 1230,000 votes, accounting for 28% of the total votes
Lai Qingde's election disturbed the Taiwan Strait
Taiwan Regional Election *** Candidate Lai Qingde:
I'm the least likely to go to war. ”
Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council:
*' means war, and '*worker' is the war-maker. Telling this kind of lie that you don't even believe yourself is a typical scoundrel. ”
On January 13 this year, Taiwan will usher in the 2024 leadership election, which is the earliest election highlight in 2024. Experts say the results will not only set the tone for cross-strait and U.S.-China relations, but also highlight China's role in the U.S. itself in November's elections.
Current affairs commentator Shi Qiping:
The most dangerous place on the earth is the Taiwan Strait, and in the event of a conflict, the impact will be particularly large, affecting the entire western Pacific Ocean, the entire Indo-Asia-Pacific region, and even Sino-US relations, so the probability of conflict is relatively high. ”
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
Taiwan's election is not the decisive factor in deciding ***, the decisive factor is reunification, and this dominance is in the hands of Chinese mainland. This stand of the Chinese mainland is very clear; Taiwan is a part of China, and the two sides of the strait will eventually be reunified, but the way to reunify is decided by the mainland. From the mainland's point of view, it is the hope of peaceful reunification. ”
According to the latest 97th wave of polls released by Taiwanese media "Beautiful Island Electronic News" on December 26, the support of candidates Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin is 389%, the Kuomintang Hou Youyi, Zhao Shaokang combination with 294% came in second.
Current affairs commentator Shi Qiping:
Xiao Meiqin's relationship with the United States is extraordinary, and she is half American in blood, so the United States specially arranged for her to serve as Lai Qingde's deputy, and the original deputy was excluded. ”
Current affairs commentator Shi Qiping:
The concerns of all parties are very tight, but no matter what the outcome is, it is basically still within the scope of control, so there will not be too many unexpected situations in the coming year. ”
Seven prophecies, what are your choices?What will the world look like in 2024?In 2023, may all the ongoing wars, sufferings and contradictions end in this year, and may everyone meet their own beauty.
Producer: Zhong Jinmei.
Editors-in-chief: Zhou Zhenghao, Li Wenji, Zheng Yemeng.