A year has changed a lot, from the first to the old !

It's time for a recap!

Two considerations:

1) From the opening of the epidemic last year to the present, it has been one year.

It is necessary to understand how much housing prices fluctuate and how the property market pattern changes.

2) Policies are frequent, but many people are still waiting.

I don't know if I can start now, or wait?Will house prices go down?

A year later, some districts that were once beautiful are now overshadowed.

In just one year, it seems that the world has changed.

In a year, the top list has indeed changed a lot.

Comparing the November 2022 list, most of them are new faces this year.

There are only 2 plates left in the list: Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion and China Merchants Beacon Mountain.

The most obvious change, Songbei is gone!

In November last year, Songbei District Station "head".

The top three on the top list are all Songbei plates, and half of the top 10 belong to Songbei.

A year has passed, and Songbei has become the one who "fell behind".

In November this year, none of the top Songbei Districts were on the list.

The bungalow area has been filled, but there is no shadow in Songbei District.

A single month can't explain the state, so let's take a look at the results from January to November:

None of them are on the list, and Songbei has indeed encountered "difficulties".

Counting on Songbei's "successful counterattack" in December?

Obviously unrealistic.

The state of Songbei District is sluggish, and the apparent reasons are:

In terms of transaction volume, the main inventory volume with high recognition in the region is decreasing, and some properties are even sold out.

The quality of Songbei's plates is uneven, and the gap between them is too large.

There are fewer and fewer projects with a high degree of consensus in the region, and they are facing sell-outs.

Vanke China and Russia, China Resources Jing'an Mansion, and China Resources Yue Mansion Phase I, which were on the list last year, have all entered the state of clearance.

So what about the essential reason?

The property market landscape has changed.

How does it change?1. The transformation of the property market and the improvement of the rise.

Harbin's improvement characteristics will be vividly brought into play in 2023.

In the 2023 TOP transaction list:

Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion, on the list for 11 consecutive months, ranked first many times, and never been in the top five;

Gemdale Summit, on the list for 10 consecutive months, the top 5 resident players on the top list;

China Resources Land Jiuli Fanghua, on the monthly top list for two consecutive months for 8 consecutive months;

Longchuang is a good neighbor, on the list for 9 consecutive months, the top list in September won the championship in one fell swoop, and the sales were 12.6 billion;

The center of gravity of the property market has been successfully tilted to the hinterland to improve the area.

2. The supporting cash is poor, and it just needs to return to Jiangnan.

There is no problem with the quality of Songbei District itself, and it even holds the big tree of "Convention and Exhibition Center".

However, the cashing strength of the industry is too weak, and the price fluctuations are large, resulting in the gradual weakening of the economic strength of the property market.

At that time, the house price could rise to 10,000+, which was based on the superposition of the five districts according to the policy, and the regional consensus was too strong.

Now the fall from the altar is also because buyers are beginning to wake up, and the regional consensus is weakening.

In addition, this year, the urban area just needs more plates to start vigorously **:

Hadong plate:

Exhibition City Shangcheng, the preferential unit price in April is more than 6,900 yuan, and the preferential unit price in August is about 5,000 yuan

Vanke Smart Future City, the two-bedroom of the "Wang Fried" unit type 72, with a free area of 11 and a total price of about 690,000 yuan;

The urban area just needs to constantly run to "share food", which makes it difficult to repair frequently.

3. Housing prices continue to fall, and the consensus on buying a house declines.

Songbei just needs to "diving" frequently, the consensus has been reduced, and the flow rate has slowed down.

The downgrading of the Shimao plate directly positions the entire Songbei as a "world of rigid needs".

In the second half of this year, all kinds of low-priced orders are even more unstoppable.

The Songpu plate once again took the lead in "shooting", opening a new wave of rotation of the Huancheng plate with 7000+ yuan

At the end of June, the unit price of Shenha Vanke City dropped directly from 7,500 yuan to 6,188 yuan.

In July, the plate rotation returned to the Matsuura plate:

In the era of China Railway Construction Jiangyu, the average price jumped from 9,000+ yuan to 7,500 yuan for the high-rise, and more than 50 sets of ** houses were launched at the end of the first phase

This year, it has slipped all the way to 7500 high-rise buildings and 9000+ bungalows.

Housing prices in major sectors in Songbei continue to "downgrade":

Shimao plate, the plate value gradient from 12,500 yuan to 11,000 yuan;

In the Shenzhen-Harbin plate, the value gradient of the plate decreased from 7,500 yuan to 7,000 yuan

In the Songpu sector, the value gradient of the plate decreased from 9,000 yuan to 8,500 yuan.

Many sectors are not only difficult to repair their own housing prices, but even drag the surrounding plates down.

Some real estate projects have even fallen by more than 50%, and the risk of thunderstorms is there.

If Songbei wants to go back, it's difficult.

If the price rises, it will inevitably fall.

Because regional consensus is not in place.

Through the comparison of the phenomenon of Songbei, let us see a clear truth:

The choice of regional plates is greater than that of real estate.

Unless your existing home + delivery exceeds expectations, it is difficult to guarantee sales.

A year has passed, the iron-clad list, the flowing plate.

There are very few real estate projects that can stick to the "front line".

For the current Harbin property market, we must have a clear understanding:

1. Some properties can wait, while others cannot.

Many plates will be sold in 2023 and sold for the end of the market.

For example, Zhonghai Yunlu Mansion, Gemdale Fengfan, Longchuang Good Neighbor, Vanke Zhong** International City, etc.

Even in some high-priced plates, the profits have been exhausted.

For example, China Resources Land Yuefu, with a floor price of 9k and a development cost of 16,000, is now selling for 10,000 at a loss.

Expecting it to drop to 10,000 is unrealistic.

Pay attention to traffic, but also pay attention to stock.

Just need to see **, improve to see inventory.

Second, if you want housing prices not to fall, you must have support.

If you want housing prices to not fall, you must pay more attention to the maturity of the sector.

It is a measure of the degree of fulfillment of a plate.

Whether it's location, school district, need, etc., all have to be considered.

Buying a house now is to buy reality and sell expectations

Third, the "Matthew effect" will become stronger and stronger in the future, and the demand will be closer to certainty.

In 2023, Harbin multi-plate has been bought into an "existing house".

In the future, demand will be concentrated in sectors and real estate with higher certainty.

Next year, the hot spot of the Harbin property market is Qunlixi.

Fourth, light cities and heavy plates, plate real estate.

For home buyers, buying a house now, plate real estate.

However, the total price segment and unit price segment of the house must conform to the value gradient of the sector in order to have liquidity.

Remember, buying a house and avoiding pitfalls is the first rule.

What do you want to say about this year's Songbei?

Welcome all netizens to leave a message and discuss together