At the end of 2023, the main indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen have closed in the negative, and the main A-share indices have been at the bottom of the world for 2 consecutive years. In 2023, Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region will be major** across the board, and many indices such as the United States, Japan, and India will rise by more than 20% annually, and A-shares will form a great contrast with them. However, in the last two trading days of 2023, the long-lost all-round A-share market makes people see the hope of 2024. Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has never been in the negative for 3 consecutive years, so there is a high probability of closing in 2024.
Most indices have been in the negative for 2 consecutive years.
The Shanghai Composite Index performed well in the first four months of 2023, with 3,087After the opening at 51 points, it touched 3418 at the highestAt 95 points, the year ** has been a positive line for a long time. In the second half of the year, it began to enter the ** channel, and the decline was not large at the beginning, but in December, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,000 and 2,900 point mark one after another, and the lowest fell to 2,882At 02 points, fortunately, in the last 2 trading days of the year**, the Shanghai Composite Index regained 2,900 points, and in 2023, it closed at 2,97493 points, in this way, the year ** closes out of the negative line, and in 2023 **37%, the first time since 2019 that the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,000-point mark.
Shanghai Composite Index Annual Chart.
2022 Shanghai Composite Index**1513%, in this way, the year **2 consecutive yin, 2 years total**1827%。
The SZSE Component Index will be 11,003 in 2023It opened at 05 o'clock and reached a maximum of 1224601 point, minimum 9106At 15 o'clock, the annual report closed at 952469 points, a decline of 1354%, the first time since 2019 that the annual ** fell below the 10,000-point mark. In 2022, the SZSE Component Index has been **2585%, in this way, the year **2 consecutive yin, 2 years of cumulative decline as high as 3589%。
SZSE Component Index Year ** chart.
The ChiNext index will fall the most in 2023, and the ChiNext index will be 2339 in 2023It opened at 98 points and reached a high of 266128 points, minimum 1792At 38 o'clock, the annual report closed at 189137 points, an annual decline of 1941%, which is the first time since 2020 that the annual ** has fallen below the 2,000-point mark. The GEM index has been **29 in 202237%, 2-year cumulative**43%.
GEM Index Year ** Chart.
The most representative index of CSI ** is the CSI 300 Index, which has performed poorly in recent years, with 3864 in 2023It opened at 84 points and touched 4268 at the highest15 points, minimum 328399 points, the annual closing of 343111 o'clock, 2023**1138%。The CSI 300 index closed out of the negative line in 2021, and so far, the annual ** has been negative for 3 consecutive years, and among the major indexes, it is the only index that has been negative for 3 consecutive years. From 2020 **521129 o'clock to this year**343111 points, a cumulative decline of 34% in 3 years;If from 2021 the highest 5930From 91 points, it will be the lowest 3283 this year99 points, the biggest drop in 3 years reached 4463%。
CSI 300 Index Annual Chart.
The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, which reflects the trend of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, performed very well in the first four months of this year, once rising by more than 20%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose to 960 this yearIt opened at 51 points and touched 1171 at the highest3 points. However, it continued to ** after May, not only did all the gains fall, but also hit a new low of 822 since its listing in December44 points, and the final closing at the end of the year is 852 points, and **1124%, for the second consecutive year**.
STAR 50 Index Monthly** chart.
The Beijing Stock Exchange is the only bright spot for A-shares in 2023, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index launched in 2022 will close out of the negative line in 2022 and 942 in 2023After the opening of 61 o'clock, it was ** for 10 consecutive months, and the lowest in October was 70255 points, but in November, there was a skyrocketing in dry land, and the highest touched 111426 points, which is also the highest point of the year, closed at 1082 for the whole yearAt 68 points, the year ** closed out of the positive line, and the increase in 2023 is 1492%。
Monthly** chart of the BSE 50 Index.
The indices are almost completely different in morphology.
From the perspective of month**, the Shanghai Composite Index has followed an arc-shaped trend from October 2022 to December 2023, and in October 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 289348 points, is the lowest point in 3 years. From November 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index began to form a right semi-arc until April 2023, and from August 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to be **, with 5 consecutive negative months, and in the last month of this year, it was also the lowest point of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2974 in December93 points, down 181%。
The ** level in December 2023 and the ** level in October 2022 will form a double bottom pattern, of course, whether the double bottom can be established depends on the trend next year.
From the quarter, this year is also poor, only the first quarter of this year is the positive line, and the second quarter begins to be three consecutive yin. In 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell even more, but this year, the Shanghai Composite Index was 2 yang and 2 yin in the quarter, and in 2023, the ** was 1 yang and 3 consecutive yin, and the 3 consecutive yin was the first time since 2019.
Nowadays, the A-share sectors are seriously differentiated, resulting in almost completely different trends in the indices, which is the result of the A-share bid farewell to the rise and fall together. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index is a circular arc trend, which formed a double bottom in December this year and October 2022, and the lowest point in December this year did not fall below the lowest point in 2022.
However, neither the Shenzhen Component Index nor the ChiNext Index have a double-bottom pattern, and this year's trend is basically unilateral**, and it fell below the low point in 2022, hitting a new low in more than 3 years.
Let's say that the GEM index, in 2023, the monthly **3 yang and 9 yin, except for January, are rising, the rest are not performing well, although the monthly ** in June and July is a positive line, but the increase is less than 1%, it can be said that it has continued since February, and it has fallen below the low point of 2022 in August and has fallen back to the position of March 2020 in December.
2024** is full of hope.
There is no doubt that 2023 will not be a good year for investors, because A-shares are generally showing a **trend, which is the worst performance among the major global **. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will rise by more than 20% and 40% respectively in 2023, and among the three major European ones, France and Germany** will rise by more than 10% in 2023, both hitting record highs. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index will be 28% in 2023 and India's 24%.
From the point of view, the number of ** and *** is basically half open, and there will be 2,767 A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2023, accounting for 54%. Of course, there are also a number of **, 135 in Shanghai and Shenzhen** rose by more than 100%, and after deducting new shares, 9 ** rose by more than 300%, of which Liante Technology ranked first with an increase of 400%. However, for the current 5,000 **Shanghai and Shenzhen**, it is almost more difficult to catch such a small number of **than ascending to the sky, and most investors will indeed find it difficult to make money in 2023, and it is easy to lose money.
The good news is that in the last 2 trading days of 2023, the A** field has seen a long-lost full-line ** pattern, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded from below 2900 points to nearly 3000 points in just 2 days, and the major indices have closed out of the positive line this week, with an increase of more than 2% this week, giving a bright tail to 2023. Although it is late, it gives us hope for 2024.
After 2 years, we may see a good one in 2024. It is worth mentioning that in the history of the Shanghai Composite Index, there has never been 3 consecutive negative years, that is, it will not fall for 3 consecutive years, and if this law continues, then 2024 is expected to see a**.
In the history of the Shanghai Composite Index, there have been a total of 4 times in the history of the year**2 consecutive yin, the third year has closed out of the positive line, based on the **second year**, most of the lower shadow lines in the third year are very short, for example, in 1994, 1995 for 2 consecutive years**, 1996 closed out of the positive line, the lowest point of this year is 7 lower than the ** in 199556%；After successive years in 2001 and 2002, the lowest point in 2003 was 3 percent lower than that in 20026%；After 2004 and 2005 consecutive **, the opening level in 2006 is the ** position in 2005, and this opening level is also the lowest point of the year. Only the lowest point in 2012 is quite different, after 2010 and 2011 consecutive **, although 2012 is a positive line, but the lowest point is 11% lower than the ** in 2011.
Judging from historical data, the Shanghai Composite Index has been the first for the third year after the first consecutive year, and in most cases, the lowest point of the year has not fallen very much. If this situation repeats itself, then 2024 may open the positive line, and it will not be significant in January or the first quarter. Of course, history doesn't simply repeat itself, but no matter what, 2024** is promising.
Gold Coast Studios.
Author |Lian Jianming.
Edited |Lu Jiahui.