Professor Li Cheng. In Li Cheng's narrative, his life experience is like a flowing feast: born in Shanghai and raised in Chinese culture. In 1985, he came to the United States for graduate and doctoral studies, and in 2006, he joined the Brookings Institution, a well-known think tank in the United States. After studying Xi and working in the United States for 38 years, he returned to Asia in July this year.
While working in the United States, Li Cheng was often asked: Is your Chinese surname "Li" or "Cheng"?Li Cheng always responded with some ridicule but not without pride, "My surname is Bruce Lee's 'Lee', and my name is Jackie Chan's 'Cheng'." ”
What Li Cheng mentioned about these two international movie stars in common is that they both have a deep connection to Hong Kong. After leaving the Brookings Institution at the end of June this year, Hong Kong also became a new starting point for Li Cheng's career. In July, he became Professor of the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong and Founding Director of the Centre for Contemporary China and the World.
Having worked in Washington for many years, "Sino-US relations" has always been one of Li Cheng's main research areas. Now, the relationship between China and the United States has profoundly influenced his career development and choices in the next stage.
In a recent interview with reporters, Li Cheng said that Sino-US relations, as the most important bilateral relationship in the world today, have experienced a sharp decline in the past few years, and geopolitical turmoil and conflicts have emerged. At this critical juncture, Hong Kong is more suitable than ever to become a "hub" for the study of China and world governance.
After decades of Sino-US exchanges, when it comes to bilateral relations, Li Cheng always inevitably puts the word "regret" on his lips: regret that the frequent cooperation between the medical and scientific circles of the two countries has been impacted;It is a pity that the experts of the "Zhihua faction" in the United States have been excluded and marginalizedIt is a pity that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the "polarized" worldview of the Cold War era has returned to the ...... of American academic and diplomatic circles
Since June this year, exchanges between China and the United States at different levels and in various fields have been recovering at an accelerated pace, from the non-governmental to the official, which has also brought a window of relaxation for bilateral relations, which have fallen to a low point. In Li Cheng's view, the president's visit to the United States highlights the initiative of China's diplomacy and will have a certain impact on the United States and the world, but due to the structural contradictions between China and the United States and the domestic political ecology of the United States, China-US relations will not be fundamentally changed in the short term. In the long run, the people of both countries should continue to strengthen their understanding of each other's internal and foreign affairs, and it is particularly important to seek convergence of interests between the two countries.
It is too early to talk about a "turning point" in Sino-US relations
The Paper: We have noticed that China-US interaction has been increasing recently. What do you think about the interaction between China and the United States in various fields and at different levels, such as politics and diplomacy, economy and trade, and climate change, as well as the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state in San Francisco, since June this year, how do these interactions play a role in the bilateral relationship, which is at a historic low, and how do you define the current state of the bilateral relationship?
Li Cheng:Many of China's diplomatic initiatives this year, as well as the exchange of visits between China and the United States, actually have a very clear layout. China's first step is to promote people-to-people exchanges when official exchanges between the two countries are blocked. Bill Gates and Kissinger, two influential non-governmental figures, met on June 16 and July 20 respectively, and they had the longest conversation with foreign guests at that time, and the Chinese side gave them very high courtesy.
The second step mainly includes the visits of four ministers (level)**. In addition to Blinken, the other three ministers have actually made some very good deliveries, and the corresponding dialogue and cooperation mechanisms on the three sides are also working. In addition, the visit to China led by Senate Majority Leader Schumer is not easy to come by, because the anti-China voice in the US Congress is very strong, from 2020 to the present, members of Congress have put forward more than 1,000 anti-China bills, and in the first half of this year, about 300 related bills were proposed. Despite this, during Schumer's visit to China, he raised relevant cooperation with China's financial industry. Since then, California Governor Newsom's visit to China has also played a very positive role. Not only does he represent the different visions and interests of the U.S. state and the federal, but the Governor of California is an extremely important host of the upcoming San Francisco Summit. He is also a rising star of the Democratic Party.
On the afternoon of October 9, 2023, Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, met with a bipartisan delegation from the U.S. Senate led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhai Jianlan Echoing this, China has also sent high-level leaders Wang Yi and He Lifeng to implement many policies, and the whole idea is very clear, step by step to promote cooperation. However, has Sino-US relations reached a "turning point"?My answer is no, and the Chinese side has been emphasizing that "the road to San Francisco is not smooth", and in fact, it does not want the expectations to be too high. However, it is better to talk than not to talk, and the visit will have a certain impact on the United States, and this visit also emphasizes the initiative of China's diplomacy and the importance that China attaches to exchanges, peace and cooperation. In the process, it will also allow more Chinese people to understand the differences and contrasts between China and the United States in the development of bilateral relations.
Overall, the visit to the United States was well designed, and many of the official tones were cautious. As for the definition of the current state of bilateral relations, I thinkThere has been no so-called "vertical fall" in Sino-US relations, which can and must be avoided, but in fact it is a state of negative downward spiral. In the process, different interest groups will also speak out. Originally, this year was supposed to be a year of adjustment of bilateral relations, but it is a pity that some anti-China interest groups in the United States do not want to see such adjustments.
The Paper: We also understand that your judgment on the development trend of China-US relations stems from your analysis of the "structural contradictions" between the two countries. Based on this judgment, what expectations and preparations should we have for the development of China-US relations in the coming period, especially before and after 2024?
Li Cheng:First of all, the development of Sino-US relations at this stage has little to do with the leaders, but is affected by "structural contradictions" and cannot be changed in a short period of time, so it is too early to talk about the "turning point" of Sino-US relations. As for the structural contradictions between China and the United States, in short, first, the United States has not been challenged in such a comprehensive way since World War II, which has led to a lack of self-confidence;Second, in recent years, the United States has been plagued by many domestic problems, such as political divisions, racial contradictions, and the gap between the rich and the poor, and the sentiment of resistance to different political systems and ideologies has become strongerThird, while the U.S. middle class has shrunk over the past few decades, China's middle class has grown from scratch and will continue to grow. Therefore, many Americans will think that the Chinese have robbed them of their jobs.
When it comes to the impact of the United States**, the chain of events after the last election is shocking, and next year will only be more thrilling. The latest polls show Trump leading Biden in five key states. This may raise two levels of questions: the first is which party will preside over the White House and Congress;The second is what happens if another candidate does not recognize the election resultsThe latter issue is even more profound, and it can be said that political democracy in the United States faces a great challenge not seen in our lifetimes.
All of this suggests that we are in a very uncertain phase:As the largest country in the world, the political instability of the United States may make China a target of both parties. At the same time, the continuity of the China policy from Trump to Biden also reflects that the structural contradictions between China and the United States and the domestic political ecology of the United States will not lead to fundamental changes in China-US relations in the short term.
The Paper: In your opinion, is there a consensus in the political and strategic circles on the US China policy at this stage, and between the US and the National Security Council?What are the consensus and different views between the parties?Is there a so-called difference between hardliners and rationalists?
Li Cheng:On the whole, both the Biden team and the Republican Party are dominated by hardliners on China. Although there are also many rational people within both parties, they are almost all marginalized. However, this does not mean that the United States' attitude towards China is "monolithic", in fact, there are differences within the National Security Council of the United States, including think tanks like the Brookings Institution. But as far as the United States and the NSC are concerned, I think Blinken and Sullivan have a good relationship, and they don't have too many contradictions.
On specific issues, from the perspective of the economic and trade fields, different departments in the United States have a consensus on their dissatisfaction with China, but there is no consensus on fighting a "** war", imposing tariffs, and "decoupling and breaking the chain". In addition, there is a consensus among different departments on the reflection and adjustment of China policies, because some of the previous China policies have not achieved results, and even made the United States pay a high price.
With geopolitical turmoil and conflict, Hong Kong is ushering in the opportunities of the times
The Paper: Why did you decide to come to the University of Hong Kong in July this year?What are the particularities and opportunities of conducting research in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region?
Li Cheng:An American writer I particularly like, Ernest Hemingway, once said, "If you are lucky enough to live in Paris when you were young, it will follow you for the rest of your life, because Paris is a flowing feast." ”
In fact, my life experience is also a feast of fluidity: I grew up in Shanghai and Chinese culture;He went to the United States in 1985 to study for graduate and doctoral studies, studied Xi and worked in the United States for 38 years, and returned to Asia in July this year.
At the same time, my career is still in a prosperous period, and I am very fortunate to be able to work in Hong Kong, the "Pearl of the Orient", at a time of fierce geopolitical conflict and turmoil in the world. I came to Hong Kong not only to teach, but also to build a world-class think tank for public policy and international relations.
Some friends will ask me why I have done the opposite in the past few years, when some foreigners or Hong Kong people have left Hong KongMy answer is that it is a trend for most people to want to come to Hong Kong, and I have expressed my confidence in Hong Kong's development with practical actions. There are two main opportunities given to Hong Kong in this era: one is that Hong Kong's society is now tending to be stable, while in today's world, many regions have fallen into instability in recent years, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and there are also problems such as political party struggles and social divisions in the United StatesSecond, the introduction of talents from all over the world has gradually become a new growth point and breakthrough point for Hong Kong in the future, and the "Quality Talent Scheme" launched by Hong Kong is a hot topic for young scholars in the mainland and around the world. In the wake of the pandemic, the number of newly registered technology companies in Hong Kong is still increasing, and the salary increase in this sector is expected to be around 4% this year.
Before leaving the United States for Hong Kong, China, Li Cheng said goodbye to his mentor Kissinger in New York and thanked him. Photo courtesy of Li Cheng
The Paper: Can you talk about the Centre for Contemporary China and the World that you will establish at HKU, and what is your vision for the centre?What specific aspects of research will the center focus on in the future?What role can it play in the exchanges between all parties, especially between China and the United States?
Li Cheng:The Center for Contemporary China and the World will be officially launched on December 15 this year, and the new center will focus on five major areas: scientific and technological change, climate change and new energy, economic and financial reform, political elites and their generational change, U.S.-China relations, and geopolitical games.
The theme of the inauguration ceremony will be "a renewed hub and a new horizon", which reflects the vision and goal of the center: to lead the voice of reason of the times, to build a much-needed bridge of communication, and to promote Hong Kong as an international hub for governance issues between China and the world. Over the past two or three decades, the most critical issue in world affairs has actually been governance. Whether it is a series of governance challenges such as economic fluctuations, environmental degradation, employment pressures, energy security, education equity, pension security, or race relations, etc., faced by countries;At the international level, climate change, sustainable development, the penetration of artificial intelligence technology, and nuclear non-proliferation also require the international community to establish a strong global governance mechanism.
Then the problem arises, and the relationship between China and the United States, as the most important bilateral relationship in the world today, has experienced a sharp decline in the past few years. It can be said that HKU's Centre for Contemporary China and the World came into being at a critical juncture for the international community: Hong Kong today is more than ever well suited to become an international hub for the study of China and world governance.
Hong Kong is not only an international modern metropolis, a global financial service center, a link for cultural exchanges, but also a bridge between the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the world. More importantly, Hong Kong will also play a subtle and profound role in shaping the international environment. Our new center will also seize the historic opportunity to occupy a unique position in the field of think tanks. In the current situation where enterprises cannot guarantee the stable development of China-US relations alone, the "Track 2 diplomacy" promoted by university think tanks can play a more important role in eliminating misunderstandings and managing differences.
The so-called "talent decoupling" is a very worrying trend
The Paper: Some commentators have described your departure from the United States as a microcosm of the "talent decoupling" between China and the United States. At the same time, I also noticed that a report in Wall Street last September said that more and more scientists and engineers of Chinese descent are giving up tenured positions at top American universities and heading for China or elsewhere. What do you think of these phenomena and the "talent decoupling" narrative?
Li Cheng:The profound changes of the times have indeed had an impact on the scholar community. Over the past few decades, we have all benefited from globalization and from education and cultural exchanges between China and the United States. I did a study of the group of Chinese scholars studying in the United States, and 95% of the full professors who are currently working at American universities received their undergraduate education in China and then received their Ph.D. degrees in the United States, European countries, or Japan, which laid the foundation for their entire academic careers. In fact, we are benefiting from two or more countries, which is a consequence of the globalization of education.
University education is supposed to be universal and everyone has the opportunity to benefit from it, but there is now a so-called "talent decoupling", which is a very worrying trend. In recent years, the so-called "racial profiling" of Chinese scientists in the United States has caused thousands of Chinese scientists to leave the United States.
You mentioned the report of Wall Street**, indeed, 1,400 Chinese scientists left the United States in 2021, and it is estimated that this number will be higher by next year and the year after that, because the U.S. executive branch decided to impose export controls on semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing at the beginning of this year, and many Chinese or Asian scientists working in these fields, many of them will face unemployment. Not only that, but the U.S. Congress has repeatedly demanded that U.S. universities stop cooperating with Chinese universities, or else they will not approve federal funding or the Department of Defense budget.
This is a very bad situation, which is not conducive to the peace and scientific and technological development of the whole world, and is also to the detriment of the sharing of research results by all mankind. In fact, during the new crown epidemic, the cooperation between the medical and scientific communities of China and the United States was very frequent, including in the field of artificial intelligence, and the proportion of cooperation between scientists from the two countries was much higher than that of some other countries, but unfortunately these cooperation will be very deeply impacted.
The Paper: Will the above trend make it more difficult for the United States to recognize and understand China, or to simplify the discussion of China?
Li Cheng:In a situation full of contradictions and collisions, the more you need to know more about each other, so as to "know yourself and know your opponent". However, the United States has given up on the need for experts and scholars, and many Americans believe that experts and scholars are being influenced by China, so many people in the decision-making departments in the United States now have no connection with China.
It is also regrettable that the experts of the "Zhihua School" have been excluded and marginalized. In a report a few years ago, David Lampton ranked No. 1 among U.S. scholars of the Zhihua School, having previously been a guest of various decision-making bodies. But as far as I know, from Trump** to today's Biden**, he was hardly consulted by the White House and ***, which is a big contrast.
This political exclusion is also related to the changes in the American education system over the past two or three decades. In the top universities of the United States, social science research, including the study of political science and international relations, has become very quantitative and lacks social, historical, and humanistic care. Although political science and international relations have a scientific component, it is more of an art than a science. It is necessary to understand the growth background, group characteristics, and mindset of decision-makers, which are difficult to explain in digitalization.
There is also a general problem: overall, the number of young Americans studying XiChinese is declining dramatically. According to statistics, in 2020, there were only 270,000 students are studying Chinese (Editor's note: Among the American college students enrolled in the fall of 2013, the number of students studying Xi Chinese reached an all-time high of 61,997). The lack of concern for the outside world will have a profound impact on the future direction and soft power of the United States.
The Paper: Recently, we have seen that Chinese and American scholars have resumed face-to-face exchanges and research in each other's countries more frequently, but considering the current atmosphere in the political and academic circles between China and the United States, there are still some obstacles and obstacles
Li Cheng:I wouldn't use the word "frequent" to describe the current communication, but it can be said that it is relatively more than before (during the pandemic). In terms of flights, there used to be 300 flights per week, but now they have only recovered to about 10% (editor's note: the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a notice on October 27 that from November 9, Chinese airlines will be allowed to operate a total of 35 flights per week, and one round trip is counted as one flight), which also reflects the reduction of exchanges in all aspects.
There are internal problems in the United States behind this. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially when Trump was in office, many American scholars believed that the so-called ideological struggle between "democracy" and "**" in the United States itself exceeded the international dispute between "democracy" and "**". It is a pity that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these scholars saw the world more as polarized, and the characteristic worldview of the Cold War period returned to the academic and diplomatic circles of the United States. This also explains why US politicians are now keen on the so-called "two camps" and propose "decoupling and breaking the chain", resulting in an increasing phenomenon of "decoupling" in the fields of economy and trade, production and supply chain, investment, currency, energy, communications, science and technology, etc. At the same time, after the conflict, many European countries are also keen on the path of polarization;Japan and South Korea in East Asia have also embarked on the path of tying themselves to the United States, forming the so-called "Asian version of NATO."
At a time when we are faced with many problems that can only be solved through the interdependence of States, the trend of global fragmentation is looming, which is worrying. In fact, the Chinese community, including scientists, should get rid of the Cold War mentality, not fall into the trap, and promote dialogue among civilizations rather than confrontation.
For a Chinese American like me, who has lived in the United States for a long time and worked in American think tanks for 17 years, I now come to Hong Kong and often have the opportunity to go to the mainland. My biggest feeling is that there are still many deficiencies in the understanding of the outside world of many Chinese people or intellectuals, especially the understanding of the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States, which has changed in recent years. On the one hand, many public intellectuals in China, including some analysts in Hong Kong, do not understand the country's own shortcomings enough, and are even blindly arrogant, so they have received a lot of criticism at home and abroad.
A more serious underlying problem is the lack of understanding of China's own strength and its impact on the outside world. Of course, I don't agree with the so-called "Thucydides trap", but what I agree with is that it is worth noting that the uneasiness and even fear sometimes arise when the established powers feel threatened. If China does not have sufficient understanding or empathy, it will be difficult to understand the anxiety and fear of the outside world in the face of China's power. For example, in the past one or two years, the development of electric vehicles in China has advanced by leaps and bounds, which has quickly changed the structural understanding of China in many countries around the world, and has also brought impact. Therefore, it is not conceivable that these countries will cheer the arrival of cheap cars from China. The situation is very complicated.
At the same time, some entrepreneurs in China have a tendency to be "mercantilist", and entrepreneurship is a good thing, but sometimes it is too "mercantil", and it will also lack humanistic care for the host country, which may affect the development of China's soft power. In addition, there is the question of nationalist sentiments. This is prevalent in various countries, and China will also have it. Especially when the power is strong, the perception of the outside world is very sensitive, which may cause more obstacles or resistance to China's communication with the world.
In international exchanges, it is easy to emphasize differences, but it is difficult to find the same. What is really precious is to seek the similarities between each other in the midst of differences, and to reduce confrontation, which helps to "humanize" each other, rather than "demonize". People from all walks of life in China should have a basic judgment that they should continue to make the pie bigger despite the lack of resources, so that other countries can benefit from China's economic development.