Recently, international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for World Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have raised China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2023**. Unlike the depreciation of China's economy represented by American politicians, these professional institutions have a big gap between the Chinese economy and the original. Because the trend of China's economy is unexpected, they have raised their ** on China's economy.
The world's 9 major professional organizations and institutions have all improved China's economy. The International Monetary Organization, the original growth rate of China's economy was 50%, now raised to 54%。The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs was originally 48%, now increased to 53%。Citibank's original ** was 50%, now up 53%。The World Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) consists of 5The growth rate of 1% increased to 52%, UBS, JPMorgan Chase & Co. are all 48% adjusted to 52%, Morgan Stanley by 48% to 49% to 51%, Nomura** in Japan by 48% to 51%, ANZ by 49% to 51%。Among them, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has the highest promotion, reaching 05 percentage points, and the adjustment of other institutions and organizations is mostly at 01% and 04%, even so, based on China's total GDP of 121 trillion in 2022, even if it is 0One percentage point is an increase in the total economic output of more than 10 trillion yuan.
Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Organization, said that an important reason for the upward revision of China's economic growth forecast in 2023 is that China's macro policies have a significant role in supporting the economy, so that "China's economy is expected to achieve its growth target in 2023 and recover strongly."
In 2024, China's economy will be higher than that of the world's main players
In the recent 2024 GDP growth** released by the World Economic Co-operation and Development Organization, the International Monetary Organization** and Gao Gao, China's growth rate is still much higher than that of other major economies in the world. Goldman Sachs** China's economic growth rate was 48% and 4 for the OECD**7% and 4 for the International Monetary Organization6%, and the average value of the three major institutions is 47%。
And they are on the development of the global economy ** respectively. 7% and 29%, the growth rate of China's economy is higher than that of the world and 15 percentage points. But much higher than in the United States and Europe. The three major agencies of the United States are: 5% and 15% for the Eurozone, respectively. 9% and 12%。The UK's growth rate was 1% overall, while Japan's growth rate was at 1% and 1%. This is compared with the economic growth rate of the world's major developed countries, China's GDP growth rate is significantly higher than theirs and much higher than the world average growth rate. Compared with major developing countries, China's GDP growth rate is only lagging behind India, where the demographic dividend is emerging, and the growth rate of the three major institutions for India is respectively. 1% and 63%, but much higher than Brazil's. 8% and 15%。
Goldman Sachs' "2024 China Macroeconomic Outlook" report pointed out that China's consumer side may continue the recovery momentum in 2023 in 2024. Goldman Sachs Chief China Economist Hui Hui said that the rapid growth of consumption in 2023 is an important driving force for China's economic growth.
What does it have to do with us?
Goldman Sachs actually involves each of us in China's economy, because he is involved in all aspects, such as the property market, oil prices and RMB exchange rates, etc., Brother Tianji here briefly said that if you buy a house or start a business and find a job, you may be able to give you some reference, after all, only by looking at the macro economy can you have a target.
On the economic front, Goldman Sachs expects China's economy to grow by 4 percent in 20248%, which may be lower than the growth rate in 2023, but it is already very optimistic. If we want to achieve this goal, we actually need to maintain monetary easing, and Goldman Sachs** will probably have three RRR cuts by the central bank next year, and may also cut interest rates to stimulate economic flows.
In the attention of many investors**, this year** Relatively sluggish, once returned to 3000 points in 2008, and even shouted out 3000 points to defend the war, foreign capital is a large number of retreats, a large number of entering, the performance is more tangled, the overall withdrawal amount of more than 100 billion yuan, which has a certain relationship with the United States continues to raise interest rates, but the United States has raised interest rates one after another but the United States has almost paralyzed the US economy, the future or will have to cut interest rates, once the dollar interest rate cuts, A shares will be the main position of dollar capital, domestic investors are not optimistic about A shares, Goldman Sachs actually continues to be optimistic about A shares, or indicating that there will be a large number of foreign capital in the future, it is possible to boost A shares。
Goldman Sachs expects the yuan exchange rate to be 7Around 15, this exchange rate is actually the same as 7149 is very close, and since 732 fell back since 7The 15 neighborhood has been lingering for a long time. It is also in line with market expectations. And the importance of the exchange rate is reflected in Brother Dimensity's previous article "How much does the RMB break 7 affect us?".There is a special explanation, and interested friends can read it on their own.
In terms of the property market, Goldman Sachs still has confidence in China's property market. Goldman Sachs believes that the negative impact of the real estate economy is expected to be improved under the introduction of relevant measures such as affordable housing and urban village transformation.
The other is the oil price that our ordinary consumers are concerned about, and unfortunately, the price of oil may rise further next year. OPEC has made it clear that it will further reduce production next year, and once the international production is reduced, it will definitely drive oil prices, which will give the best reason for the price increase of two barrels of oil, and it will be difficult for gasoline to return to below 9 yuan next year.
The above are some of the superficial views of Brother Tianji based on the major organizations and institutions** combined with China's economy. Different points of view are welcome to be exchanged.
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