Goldman Sachs' ** for China's GDP growth rate in 2024 is 48%, but that target is not easy to achieve. To achieve this goal, three RRR cuts and one rate cut are expected. However, for this GDP growth rate, we note that Goldman Sachs' statement is somewhat vague, in fact, their ** China's economic growth rate will fall below the 5% range, which is a typical pessimistic attitude towards China's economy. Recently, the United States has also sung about China's economy, and their intentions are self-evident. On the one hand, they want to highlight the prosperity of the U.S. economy and imply that even if the U.S. is not good, China is not doing well. On the other hand, they are also preparing for the Fed's interest rate cut and the influx of US dollar capital, hoping to further suppress the ** of Chinese assets. It should be noted that the United States is often closely related to the capitalists, and they share common interests.
That said, we are more optimistic about China's economy, with real growth expected to exceed 5%. At present, China is actively promoting high-quality development and stepping up transformation and upgrading. With a series of measures and reform measures gradually taking effect, China's economy will maintain stable growth and usher in new development opportunities in many fields.
According to Goldman Sachs, the CSI 300 index is expected to be 16% in 2024, and the inflow of foreign capital is expected to be about $100 billion. This ** is actually relatively neutral and even somewhat conservative. This year, foreign capital has shown a certain hesitation in the A** field, and the inflow and outflow of funds have been alternating, and the outflow of northbound funds has exceeded 100 billion yuan. However, if the dollar does cut interest rates in 2024, the A** field will undoubtedly become one of the main offensive positions of dollar capital. Can $100 billion of this magnitude be sustained?Regarding Goldman Sachs**'s CSI 300 Index** 16%, that is, reaching around 3,400 points, we think it is a bit conservative and expect it to actually exceed 4,000 points. At present, ** has become the general trend. This year's decline is directly related to confidence, and it is also related to the outflow of foreign capital. Next year, with the recovery of confidence and the re-inflow of foreign capital, coupled with the recovery of business operations, these three factors will be superimposed, will it be possible to stop the momentum of reaching more than 4,000 points?
Goldman Sachs**, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next year, the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate slightly to 715 around. Although this ** report from Goldman Sachs was apparently released before the appreciation of the yuan, and the current exchange rate of the yuan has stabilized at 7Around 13. Such a view is actually in line with the voices that sing the praises of China's economy. Because behind the exchange rate is the economy, but also the asset. The quality of China's economy and the value of its assets will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. Goldman Sachs clearly knew that if the dollar cut interest rates, the appreciation of the yuan was expected, and they could no longer demonize the yuan exchange rate, so they had to give a conservative 7** of 15.
However, we believe that the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable and gradually play a greater role in the international arena. At present, the renminbi has become the fourth largest payment currency in the world and is widely used in a series of international** and investments. With the steady development of China's economy and the continuous opening up of the financial market, the international status of the renminbi will be further enhanced in the future.
Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of real estate on the economy is expected to improve in the context of the introduction of policies such as affordable housing and urban village transformation. However, they did not mention specific data such as house prices and transaction volumes, which is also in line with the reality, as China's real estate market has become one of the most difficult markets in the world. Nevertheless, the expectation that the real estate market will pick up next year is also the consensus of many experts and opinions. In fact, the recovery of the real estate market has already yielded initial results, with a series of policy measures being taken and market confidence gradually recovering. At the same time, the recovery of the real estate market will also promote the recovery of related industrial chains and the overall growth of the economy.
5. In 2024, international oil prices will fluctuate between $80 and $100 per barrel, with an average annual oil price of about $92.
Recently, the situation in the main oil-producing regions of the Middle East has been volatile, leading to tensions between OPEC and the United States. It is worth noting that OPEC recently announced that it will cut oil production, rather than the previous statement that Saudi Arabia promised the United States to increase oil production. As a result, Goldman Sachs is also cautious about oil prices. Although this article is not specific to China, the implicit implication is that the Chinese economy will also have to pay the price for high oil prices. So that's not all the good news.
To sum up, Goldman Sachs is relatively cautious and conservative about China's economy in 2024, but it is not pessimistic. Their ** is partly constrained by negative views of the Chinese economy and the political factors of the United States. However, we believe that China's economy is expected to maintain a high growth rate and has strong resilience and potential. Goldman Sachs will underestimate China's economy and its potential at the cost of missing out on the world's best investment opportunities. Our economic growth rate next year will be in the range of 5%-6%, and will not fall below 5%. For China, this is very important.
(This answer is based on Goldman Sachs** data, which is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.) ）