The gold store has reached 615 yuan grams, will it still rise?
Will the Fed stop raising interest rates and enter the interest rate cut cycle before and after?
My reason is that there may be a slight adjustment in the short term (1-3 years), but considering the wave of layoffs and the high unemployment rate this year, there will not be too many people who buy ** during the New Year.
The Federal Reserve paused its interest rate hikes and released guidance on rate cuts: The Federal Reserve decided to stop raising interest rates at its December meeting, which means that they do not believe that the current state of the economy requires further interest rate increases. At the same time, they said at a press conference that there is a possibility of a rate cut in the future, which gives the market the expectation of a rate cut.
Short-term market conditions and *** reactions: The current market is overly optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as March 2024, leading to a rapid decline in the nominal interest rate on US 10 bonds. However, in order to further reduce interest rates, more and worse economic data may be needed. Therefore, it may be difficult for the nominal interest rate of short-term US Treasury bonds to fall, which brings bearish pressure to ***. However, over the past month*** has behaved relatively rationally, not following the decline and sharp decline in real interest rates on US Treasuries. Therefore, in the course of the U.S. Treasury interest rate, it may manifest as a trend.
**Latest** on December 19, 2023, as of press time, the domestic gold price is 47363 yuan grams, the international gold price is 2024 US dollars per ounce. The slight decline is also in line with my preliminary judgment.
The gold price of domestic offline gold stores has reached a maximum of 615 yuan.
The central bank has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months**
China's central bank's ** reservesAs of the end of October, the People's Bank of China's ** reserves were 22146 tons. But compared to other countries, this percentage is relatively low.
The ratio of China's central bank's ** reserves to foreign exchange reserves is 43%。
Among the top 20 central banks with large reserves, the reserves of the United States, Germany, France, Italy and other countries account for a very high proportion of foreign exchange reserves, and Portugal and Uzbekistan even exceed 70%.
The Bank of Japan's ** reserves account for only 4 percent of its foreign exchange reserves4%, similar to China.
However, it should be noted that Japan's national conditions are different from China's, and its economic external environment and geopolitical challenges are different from China's.